中国民营银行发展与经济增长：1985～2012年

发布时间：2018-05-18 19:59

本文选题：民营银行发展 + 经济增长　；参考：《辽宁大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：超过三十年的改革开放，中国的经济发展成就吸引了全世界的关注。改革开放以来，中国经济持续稳定增长和发展，国内生产总值（GDP）增长率始终保持7%以上的高速增长，到2010年，中国的国内生产总值（GDP）首次超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，发展到2013年底，我国国内生产总值（GDP）已经突破56万亿元人民币。中国经济的持续增长在极大的程度上证明了中国经济体制渐进式转轨的成功，，这种成功是多种因素作用的结果。本文认为，中国的渐进式经济转轨的成功在很大程度上得益于民营经济从无到有、不断发展壮大和持续的增长以及民营银行对民营经济的鼎力支持。相对于国有独资商业银行，服务于民营经济实体的民营银行的发展壮大应该对民营经济进而整个国民经济的发展产生不可小觑的影响力量。本文试图从民营银行在规模上的绝对发展和与国有银行相比在规模上的相对发展两种视角出发，检验我国民营银行的发展与经济增长之间的动态因果关系，探究我国民营银行的发展是否、如何以及在多大程度上对经济增长做出贡献，并回答两个问题：相比于经济发展的速度，民营银行在规模上的绝对发展对经济增长会具有什么样的作用；相比于国有商业银行的发展速度，民营银行在规模上的相对发展对经济增长又会具有什么样的作用。本文的章节安排如下：第一章为绪论，主要介绍选题背景和研究意义、研究对象、研究的方法、文章的结构安排以及本文的创新之处；第二章为文献综述，梳理国内外在金融发展与经济增长、银行业市场结构与经济绩效、银行业市场结构与经济增长理论的研究现状和文献资料；第三章为理论分析框架，在金融抑制和金融深化理论、加尔比斯（Galbis，1977）金融发展的两部门模型以及帕加诺（Pagano，1993）扩展的包含金融发展的内生增长模型的基础上，结合我国的具体实际情况，将加尔比斯金融发展两部门模型和帕加诺扩展的AK模型相结合，提出我国的民营银行发展与经济增长的两部门模型，分析民营银行在经济增长中的作用和影响途径；第四章是对中国银行业发展和经济增长概况的历史回顾，阐明了中国民营经济和国民经济发展的情况以及民营银行和国有银行发展情况；第五章为时间序列实证检验分析，以向量自回归（VAR）模型为基础，以经济增长、民营银行发展、对外开放、劳动投入以及资本存量作为模型中的变量指标，采用1985~2012年的年度数据为样本数据，来分析研究我国民营银行发展在绝对量和相对量层面上在经济增长中的相对影响作用；第六章为面板数据实证检验分析，在第五章实证分析得出的结论的基础上提出假说，在面板数据模型的框架下，采用全国28个省区市2007~2011年的面板数据，运用固定效应（FE）模型和随机效应（RE）模型以及霍斯曼（Hausman）检验并通过稳健性检验，考察和研究我国各个地区民营银行的绝对发展和相对发展对地区经济增长和全要素生产率的提高的影响效应；第七章是结论和政策建议，总结本文时间序列和面板模型两种实证研究的主要结论，通过以向量自回归（VAR）模型为基础的协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数分析以及方差分解分析得出结论，认为民营银行在规模上的绝对发展和相对发展都对经济增长起到了促进的作用，同时，经济增长也对民营银行绝对和相对的发展具有一定的反馈作用，但是民营银行发展对经济增长的促进作用更强；通过基于面板数据（Panel Data）模型的实证检验，认为我国各个地区的民营银行的绝对发展和相对发展对地区的经济增长和全要素生产率的提高都有重要的促进作用。并以实证分析得出的结论为依据阐明未来我国银行体系改革和金融系统改革的政策建议，最后说明了本文在研究过程中的不足之处和未来的研究方向。
[Abstract]:After more than thirty years of reform and opening up, China's economic development has attracted the attention of the world. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has sustained a steady growth and development, and the growth rate of GDP has maintained a high rate of more than 7%. By 2010, China's gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded Japan for the first time and became the second largest economy in the world. By the end of 2013, China's gross domestic product (GDP) has already exceeded RMB 56 trillion yuan. The sustained growth of China's economy has proved to a great extent the success of the gradual transition of China's economic system. This success is the result of many factors. This article holds that the success of China's gradual economic transition is to a great extent. The development and expansion of private banks, which serve private economic entities, should have an important influence on the development of private economy and the whole country's economy. This article tries to examine the dynamic causal relationship between the development of private banks and the economic growth in China from the two perspectives of the absolute development of the private banks on the scale and the relative development of the state-owned banks on the scale, and to explore the development of private banks in our country, if and to what extent the economic growth is paid. And answer two questions: compared to the speed of economic development, the absolute development of private banks on the scale of economic growth will have what kind of role. Compared to the speed of the development of state-owned commercial banks, the relative development of private banks on the scale of economic growth will have what kind of role.
The chapter is arranged as follows: the first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic, the research object, the research method, the structure of the article and the innovation of this article. The second chapter is the literature review, combing the domestic and external financial development and economic growth, the market structure and economic performance of the silver industry, and the banking market structure. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis framework, the third chapter is the theoretical analysis framework, the two sector model of financial development, the financial development of Garr bis (1977) and the endogenous growth model which is extended by Pagano (Pagano, 1993), which includes the financial development, and combines the concrete actual situation of our country. With the combination of the two sector model of Garr bis financial development and the AK model extended by the park, the two sector model of the development and economic growth of private banks in China is put forward, and the role and influence ways of private banks in economic growth are analyzed. The fourth chapter is a historical review of the development of China's banking industry and the general situation of economic growth. The development of private economy and national economy as well as the development of private banks and state-owned banks; the fifth chapter is the empirical test analysis of time series, based on the vector autoregression (VAR) model, with the economic growth, the development of private banks, the opening to the outside world, the labor input and the stock of capital as the variables of the model, and the use of 1985~2012 The annual data of the year is the sample data to analyze the relative influence of the development of private banks in our country on the absolute and relative level in the economic growth. The sixth chapter is the empirical test analysis of panel data and the false statement on the basis of the conclusions obtained in the fifth chapter. The panel data of 28 provinces and regions in China, using the fixed effect (FE) model and the random effect (RE) model, Horsman (Hausman) test and the robustness test, investigated and studied the effect of the absolute development and relative development of private banks on regional economic growth and the increase of total factor productivity in each region of China. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestion, and summarizes the main conclusions of the two empirical studies of the time series and the panel model. Through the cointegration test based on the vector autoregression (VAR) model, the Grainger causality test, the impulse response function analysis and the variance decomposition analysis, the conclusion is drawn that the private banks are absolute on the scale. Both development and relative development have played a role in promoting economic growth. At the same time, economic growth also has a certain feedback effect on the absolute and relative development of private banks, but the development of private banks has a stronger role in promoting economic growth. Through the empirical test based on the panel data (Panel Data) model, it is considered that each region of our country The absolute development and relative development of private banks have an important role in promoting regional economic growth and the increase of total factor productivity. Based on the conclusions of empirical analysis, the policy proposals for the reform of the banking system and the reform of the financial system in the future are clarified. Finally, the shortcomings of this article in the study process are explained. Future research direction.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F832.33

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