人民币汇率市场化对短期国际资本流动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 03:00

本文选题：短期国际资本流动 + 汇率市场化　；参考：《南京农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：国际间的资本流动从最开始相互的贸易商品偿付开始,发展到了以生产为目的的国际直接投资,继而以套利投机为主要目的的短期国际资本投资。改革开放以来,我国的资本管制政策相对较为严格,但是仍然存在短期国际资本从其他渠道较大规模进出我国的现象。1997年东南亚金融危机爆发,短期国际资本大规模外逃,国内外学者开始关注我国短期国际资本的流动。2001年我国加入世界贸易组织,为了更好地与全球经济紧密相融,政府开始逐渐放松对资本账户的管制。2002年,我国短期国际资本的流动方向发生逆转,由连续12年的短期国际资本流出变为流入。2005年,我国的汇率制度由盯住美元变为参考一篮子货币,短期国际资本的流入趋势变得更加强劲。2007年美国爆发次贷危机并蔓延至全球,金融机构“去杠杆化”趋势增强,我国的短期国际资本又呈现出流出的势头。但随着中国经济状况的改善,特别是2010年人民币升值预期以及基准利率提高的情况下,短期国际资本开始重新流入国内。2011年下半年起,由于对我国经济硬着陆的担忧,短期国际资本重新呈现流出的趋势。短期国际资本流动是一把“双刃剑”。一方面,适当规模的短期国际资本流入有利于弥补国内资金不足,提高资本的国际运转效率,促进我国经济的发展。另一方面,短期国际资本具有潜入规模巨大、流动速度加快以及反转性强的特点,对我国宏观经济稳定形成了巨大的挑战。如果短期国际资本流动规模超出了市场承受能力,可能会导致该国经济过热、通货膨胀、宏观经济政策失灵,经济脆弱性增加,而短期资本流动的突然逆转则可能会引发我国汇率制度崩溃,货币危机发生,甚至是全面的经济危机。正因为对短期国际资本流动负面效应的担忧,学者对于今年来不断加快推进地汇率市场化改革存在争议。学者认为汇率市场化改革会使汇率波动频繁,汇率的波动则会通过资本流动的渠道尤其是短期国际资本流动的渠道影响一国的金融稳定,因此对待汇率市场化改革应该谨慎。也有学者认为,汇率市场化改革从而提高汇率的市场化水平,正是缓解短期国际资本过度流动的有效工具。基于以上争议,研究汇率市场化对短期国际资本流动的影响,深入探讨短期国际资本流动的影响因素,有利于理性看待汇率市场化改革,也为短期国际资本流动的管理提供理论的基础和指导。本文的结构及主要内容如下。第一章是导论,介绍本文的研究背景、研究意义、内容和方法,研究思路,可能的创新和不足。第二章是理论基础和研究综述。首先介绍短期国际资本流动的相关驱动理论,包括利率驱动理论、利率汇率联合驱动理论、资产组合驱动理论以及其他相关理论。然后,对汇率市场化的界定和衡量的相关文献进行综述,在此基础上,总结汇率市场化与短期国际资本流动关系的研究成果进行总结。最后,对短期国际资本流动的其他影响因素的相关文献进行综述,以期从全方位的角度解释短期国际资本流动的动因。第三章首先理论分析汇率市场化对短期国际资本流动的影响,在此基础上,分别对短期国际资本流动和汇率市场化进行分析,最后运用弹性分析法分析汇率市场化对短期国际资本流动的影响。第四章在对短期国际资本流动的其他因素进行理论分析的基础上,进一步实证研究包括汇率市场化水平在内的汇率因素、利率因素以及资产价格因素对短期国际资本流动的影响。第五章是结论与政策建议。本文的主要结论是包括汇率升值预期和汇率市场化水平在内的汇率因素是短期国际资本流动的主要解释因素,汇率市场化水平的提高能够减少短期国际资本流动的波动,这在一定程度上说明汇率市场化是防止短期国际资本过度波动的有效工具,我国应该完善人民币汇率市场化形成机制。同时,包括股票价格和房地产价格在内的资产价格也对短期国际资本流动产生了重要影响,资产价格的提高会吸引短期国际资本的流入。利率因素对短期国际资本流动的影响相对较弱,利差的增加会吸引短期国际资本流入,但随着利率市场化进程的不断加快,对短期国际资本流动的管理必须重视利率因素的影响。
[Abstract]:The international capital flow has begun from the beginning of the first mutual trade goods, and it has developed to the international direct investment of production as the purpose, and then the short-term international capital investment which is the main purpose of arbitrage speculation. Since the reform and opening up, China's capital control policy is relatively strict, but there still exist short term international capital from other channels. The phenomenon of the Southeast Asian financial crisis broke out in.1997, and the short-term international capital fled in a large scale. Scholars at home and abroad began to pay attention to the flow of short term international capital in China for.2001 years to join the world trade organization. In order to better integrate with the global economy, the government began to gradually relax the control of capital account.20. In the 02 year, the flow direction of China's short-term international capital was reversed, and the short-term international capital outflow was changed into.2005 years for 12 years. The exchange rate system of our country changed from peg to the dollar to a reference basket, the inflow trend of short-term international capital became stronger and the subprime crisis broke out in the United States and spread to the world, and the financial institutions were spread to the world. The trend of "de leveraging" has increased, and the short-term international capital in China has shown the momentum of outflow. However, with the improvement of China's economic situation, especially in 2010, the expectation of RMB appreciation and the improvement of the benchmark interest rate, the short-term international capital began to reflow into the domestic second half of the.2011 year, due to the concern about the hard landing of our country. In the short term international capital flow is a "double-edged sword". On the one hand, the appropriate scale of short-term international capital inflow can help to make up the shortage of domestic capital, improve the efficiency of international capital operation and promote the economic development of our country. On the other hand, short term international capital has a huge latent scale, If the size of the short-term international capital flows beyond the capacity of the market, it may lead to the overheating of the economy, the inflation, the failure of macroeconomic policy, the increase of economic fragility, and the sudden reversal of the short-term capital flow. It can cause the collapse of our exchange rate system, the currency crisis, and even a comprehensive economic crisis. Because of the concerns about the negative effects of short-term international capital flows, scholars have been disputed about the continuous acceleration of the reform of the exchange rate marketization this year. Scholars believe that exchange rate marketization reform will make exchange rate fluctuate frequently and exchange rate fluctuations A country's financial stability will be affected by the channel of capital flow, especially the channel of short-term international capital flow. Therefore, the reform of exchange rate marketization should be prudent. Some scholars believe that the reform of exchange rate marketization can improve the market level of exchange rate, which is an effective tool to alleviate the excessive flow of short-term international capital. This paper studies the influence of exchange rate marketization on short-term international capital flow and deeply discusses the influence factors of short-term international capital flow, which is beneficial to the rational view of exchange rate market reform, and also provides a theoretical basis and guidance for the management of short-term international capital flow. The structure and main contents of this paper are as follows. Background, research significance, content and methods, research ideas, possible innovations and deficiencies. The second chapter is the theoretical basis and research review. First, it introduces the related driving theories of short-term international capital flows, including interest rate driven theory, interest rate exchange drive theory, asset group driving theory and other related theories. Then, the exchange rate market On the basis of the summary of the relevant literature of the definition and measurement of the field, the research results of the exchange rate marketization and the short-term international capital flow are summarized. Finally, the relevant literature on the other factors of the short-term international capital flow is reviewed in order to explain the motivation of the short-term international capital flow from a comprehensive perspective. The third chapter analyzes the effect of exchange rate marketization on short-term international capital flow. On this basis, it analyzes short-term international capital flows and exchange rate marketization respectively. Finally, the effect of exchange rate marketization on short-term international capital flows is analyzed by elastic analysis. The fourth chapter is on other factors of short-term international capital flow. On the basis of theoretical analysis, further empirical research includes exchange rate factors, interest rate factors and the effect of asset price factors on short-term international capital flow. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations. The main conclusions of this paper are the exchange rate factors including exchange rate appreciation expectation and exchange rate marketization level. It is the main factor to explain the short-term international capital flow. The improvement of the exchange rate market level can reduce the volatility of the short-term international capital flow. This shows that the exchange rate marketization is an effective tool to prevent the excessive volatility of short-term international capital, and China should improve the formation mechanism of the exchange rate of people's currency. Asset prices, such as prices and real estate prices, also have an important impact on short-term international capital flows, and the increase in asset prices will attract short-term international capital inflows. The effect of interest rates on short-term international capital flows is relatively weak. The increase in interest rates will attract short-term international capital inflow, but with the process of interest rate marketization. Accelerating the management of short-term international capital flows must attach importance to interest rate factors.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F831.6

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