中美汇率博弈问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 22:48

本文选题：中美 + 汇率　；参考：《广西大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：21世纪以来,经济区域化、全球化的趋势逐步加深,世界贸易飞速增长,国际资本加速流动,作为世界经济政治大国的美国和中国的利益冲突也日益加深,双方利用各种政策手段在贸易、货币、税收等领域展开较量,引发其他各国的高度关注。在汇率方面,中美争端的焦点集中在人民币币值的确定上。美国从2002年开始就声称人民币被低估,导致中美贸易中美国长期维持贸易逆差,进而使得美国国内失业严重、产品滞销等问题,同时采取行动逼迫人民币升值。在以美国为首的国家迫使下,我国于2005年7月21日实行汇率改革,当时人民币对美元的汇率就上升2%,到目前为止人民币已经升值约32%。这一结果标示着中美汇率博弈中中方的劣势地位,虽然有造成损失,但损失尚在可接受的范围内。本文通过对国内外相关文献的研究,以汇率博弈机制为基础,详细分析了中美汇率博弈状况,发现影响中美汇率博弈结果的因素可能为中美经济总量差异、中美产业结构差异、中美通货膨胀差异、中美利率差异、中美进出口差额,此外,中美军事差异和中美政治影响力差异等也会对中美汇率博弈结果产生影响。针对这些可能使中国在中美汇率博弈中处于劣势的因素,本文选择前面五个可以量化的指标做了实证分析,发现中美经济总量差异、中美产业结构差异、中美通货膨胀差异、中美进出口差额对中美汇率波动的影响在统计学上来说是显著的。针对这些影响因素,本文在最后提出了一系列可能的对策与建议,力求能缩小中美在上述领域内的差异。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, economic regionalization, the trend of globalization, the rapid growth of world trade, the accelerated flow of international capital, and the conflicts of interest between the United States and China, as major economic and political powers in the world, have deepened day by day. The two sides use various policy measures in trade, currency, taxation and other areas of competition, attracting high attention from other countries. In terms of exchange rate, the focus of the dispute between China and the United States is the determination of the value of the RMB. Since 2002, the United States has claimed that the yuan is undervalued, which has led to a long-term trade deficit between China and the United States, which has led to serious unemployment and unsalable products in the United States, while taking action to force the appreciation of the renminbi. Under the pressure of the United States-led countries, China carried out the exchange rate reform on July 21, 2005, when the RMB exchange rate rose by 2% against the US dollar, and so far the RMB has appreciated about 32%. This result indicates the inferior position of the Chinese side in the exchange rate game between China and the United States. Although there are some losses, the losses are still within the acceptable range. Based on the research of domestic and foreign literatures and the exchange rate game mechanism, this paper analyzes the situation of the exchange rate game between China and the United States in detail, and finds out that the factors influencing the result of the exchange rate game may be the difference of the total economic volume between China and the United States, and the difference of the industrial structure between China and the United States. The differences of inflation, interest rate, import and export between China and the United States, as well as the military differences between China and the United States and the differences in political influence between China and the United States, will also have an impact on the results of the exchange rate game between China and the United States. In view of these factors which may make China in a disadvantage in the Sino-US exchange rate game, this paper chooses the first five quantifiable indicators to do empirical analysis, and finds out the differences of the total economic volume, the industrial structure of China and the United States, and the difference of inflation between China and the United States. The effect of the balance of imports and exports on the exchange rate fluctuation is statistically significant. Aiming at these influencing factors, this paper puts forward a series of possible countermeasures and suggestions in order to narrow the differences between China and the United States in the above fields.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F837.12

【参考文献】