一带一路背景下中国与中亚五国工业制成品贸易潜力研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 12:23

本文关键词： 一带一路中亚五国工业制成品贸易潜力引力模型　出处：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国的"一带一路"战略自宣布之后,在世界范围内就引起了强烈的反响,沿线国家对此的期望都很高。中亚五国是"一带一路"战略的核心战略区域之一,是我国从陆路连接欧洲大陆的必经之地,也是我国西部开放的重要对象。在"一带一路"战略背景下,我国与中亚五国的经济联系将会更加密切,双边贸易规模也有望再上一个新台阶。本文从我国与中亚五国双边的工业制成品贸易现状出发,研究我国与中亚五国工业制成品贸易潜力。首先采用的是指标法,分析结果显示我国与中亚五国的工业制成品贸易拥有较好的贸易结合度,出口竞争力也要高于中亚五国的工业制成品,但是贸易互补性方面除了吉尔吉斯斯坦之外均不容乐观。随后,在继承基础引力模型的基础上,加入了进口国和出口国的人口、铁路运力、是否接壤、是否同属上海合作组织和是否同属WTO等变量将引力模型进行拓展,并搜集数据进行了实证分析,再将实际数据代入回归模型计算理论结果与实际结果进行比较来测算贸易潜力,结果表明中国与中亚五国的工业制成品贸易均处于贸易拓展阶段,拥有一定的拓展空间。最后,根据分析结果给出了促进我国与中亚五国工业制成品贸易发展的建议。
[Abstract]:China's "The Belt and Road" strategy since the announcement, in the world has aroused strong repercussions, the countries along the expectations are very high. One of the core strategy of Regional Central Asia is The Belt and Road "strategy, China's continental Europe overland connection must pass through, but also an important object China open. In the background of" The Belt and Road "strategy, China and Central Asia's economic ties will be more closely, the scale of bilateral trade is expected to a new level. This article from China and Central Asia bilateral trade of manufactured goods is based on China and Central Asia industrial manufactured goods the trade potential is used. Firstly, index method, analysis results show that China and the five Central Asian countries trade of manufactured goods have combined good trade, export competitiveness is higher than that of the five Central Asian countries of the industrial manufactured goods, but the trade complementarity In addition to outside of Kyrgyzstan are not optimistic. Then, based on the basis of the gravity model, joined the import and export of China's population, railway transportation, whether on whether belong to the Shanghai cooperation organization and whether WTO will belong to variables such as the gravity model is extended, and collect data for the empirical analysis, and then the actual data into the regression model calculation results and the actual results were compared to estimate the trade potential, results show that the China and the five Central Asian countries are in the trade of manufactured goods trade development stage, has certain development space. Finally, according to the results of the analysis are given to promote China and Central Asia industrial manufactured goods trade development proposals.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7

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