中国与哈萨克斯坦双边货物贸易潜力研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 07:12

本文关键词： 双边货物贸易贸易潜力引力模型中国哈萨克斯坦　出处：《新疆大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年世界金融危机全面爆发以后,世界经济历经历史性变化,陷入长期低迷阶段。同时,中亚地区因其地理位置优势及其所处的经济发展阶段,其战略地位及经济地位均迅速飙升。世界各主要经济体为恢复经济,纷纷寻求区域间的经济合作,使其成为全球经济体合作的最主要形式,而因其主要表现形式是区域贸易,因此,与中亚地区的区域贸易就成为了世界主要经济体之间博弈的焦点。在激烈的博弈战中,中国与中亚最具代表力的国家——哈萨克斯坦的双边贸易也越来越举足轻重。自1991年底哈萨克斯坦独立以来,中国与其建立了良好的经贸关系,两国的双边货物贸易持续向好,且仍具有一定的可开拓空间。本文首先描述了中国与哈萨克斯坦2014年各自的国际货物贸易状况,并对两国的双边货物贸易现状从贸易规模及增长速度、贸易差额、贸易商品结构和具体贸易产品四个方面做出具体分析,认为中国与哈萨克斯坦两国双边货物贸易发展态势良好。然后,本文选取两个贸易统计分析指数,即贸易比较优势指数(RCA)和贸易互补性指数(TCI),对两国双边货物贸易的互补性进行研究,结果证明中国与哈萨克斯坦双边货物贸易具有很强的互补性,即两国存在进行双边贸易的前提。接着,本文选取两国的国内生产总值(GDP)、两国的人口数(P)、两国的地理距离、人民币兑坚戈的汇率以及虚拟变量是否是上海合作组织(SCO)成员为自变量,构建贸易引力模型,并运用IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0确立最优的中国与哈萨克斯坦双边货物贸易模型方程,研究表明中国的国内生产总值(GDP)和人民币兑坚戈的汇率对中国与哈萨克斯坦双边货物贸易的影响最为显著。随后,利用确立的最优引力模型方程,对中国与哈萨克斯坦双边货物贸易潜力进行测算,得出结论认为中国与哈萨克斯坦23年中16年的货物贸易基本处于最优状态,但仍有继续扩大的需要。最后,基于以上的理论分析和实证分析,本文从区域经济学角度从国家、区域、企业层面分别提出相应的对策建议,以推动中国与哈萨克斯坦双边货物贸易潜力的实现。
[Abstract]:After the outbreak of the world financial crisis in 2008, the world economy experienced historic changes and fell into a long period of depression. At the same time, because of its geographical advantages and its economic development stage, Central Asia, Its strategic and economic status has soared rapidly. In order to revive its economy, the major economies of the world have sought interregional economic cooperation, making it the most important form of global economic cooperation, since its main manifestation is regional trade, Therefore, regional trade with Central Asia has become the focus of the game between the world's major economies. Bilateral trade between China and Kazakhstan, the most powerful country in Central Asia, has also become increasingly important. Since Kazakhstan became independent in end of 1991, China has established good economic and trade relations with Kazakhstan, and bilateral trade in goods between the two countries has continued to improve. This paper first describes the situation of international trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan in 2014, and analyzes the current situation of bilateral trade in goods in terms of the scale and growth rate of trade, and the trade balance. Four aspects of the structure of trade commodities and specific trade products are analyzed, and it is concluded that the development of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan is good. Then, this paper selects two trade statistics analysis indexes. The trade comparative advantage index (RCA) and the trade complementarity index (TCII) are used to study the complementarity of bilateral trade in goods between the two countries. The results show that the bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan is highly complementary. That is, the premise of bilateral trade between the two countries. Then, this paper selects the GDP of the two countries, the population of the two countries, the geographical distance between the two countries. The exchange rate of RMB to tenge and whether the fictitious variable is a member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are independent variables. The trade gravitation model is constructed, and the optimal model equation of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan is established by using IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0. The results show that China's gross domestic product (GDP) and the exchange rate of RMB against tenge have the most significant impact on bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan. By measuring the potential of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan, it is concluded that the goods trade between China and Kazakhstan in the past 23 years is basically optimal, but there is still a need for further expansion. Finally, Based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the angle of regional economics from the national, regional and enterprise levels to promote the realization of the potential of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.61

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