山东省服务贸易出口结构影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 07:42

  本文关键词： 服务贸易 出口结构 影响因素 结构优化　出处：《兰州财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前服务贸易已经成为拉动世界经济增长的新动力,经过几十年的努力,我国服务贸易也取得了突出的成绩,服务贸易无论是进口额还是出口额都跻身世界前列。山东省作为东部沿海的经济大省,服务贸易发展迅速,呈现出规模扩大、逆差增加的趋势。在充分肯定山东省服务贸易总量较快增长的同时,我们也应该认识到山东省服务贸易在发展中存在结构失衡的问题,服务贸易的出口以旅游、运输、建筑服务为主,新兴的技术密集型服务贸易虽然增速很快,但整体出口占比很小,这使得山东省的服务贸易在中国乃至世界分工体系中都很被动,极大了制约了山东省服务贸易以及服务业的可持续性、高质量发展。因此本文的研究目的就是要找出影响山东省服务贸易出口结构的因素及其具体的影响程度,提出优化山东省的服务贸易出口结构的政策建议,这对于提升整个地区的服务业水平和服务贸易质量,以及提升山东省在世界分工体系中的地位都有重要的意义。本文根据山东省服务贸易现状及出口结构存在的问题,选取了人力资本、物质资本、技术进步、服务贸易开放度、服务业外商直接投资、货物贸易规模六个因素,分别阐述了其对山东省服务贸易出口结构变动的作用机理,在此基础上,选取各因素的相关指标,以2003-2013年的统计数据为样本,建立计量经济模型,实证分析了各因素对山东省服务贸易出口结构的影响程度,得出结论:人力资本、物质资本、技术进步、服务贸易开放度、服务业FDI的增加,有利于山东省服务贸易出口结构的优化,但是货物贸易的发展对山东省服务贸易出口结构的优化升级有抑制作用。
[Abstract]:At present, trade in services has become a new driving force for the growth of the world economy. After decades of efforts, China's trade in services has also made outstanding achievements. Both imports and exports of trade in services rank among the top in the world. As a large economic province along the eastern coast of Shandong Province, trade in services has developed rapidly, showing an expansion in scale. While fully affirming the rapid growth of the total volume of service trade in Shandong Province, we should also recognize that there is a structural imbalance in the development of service trade in Shandong Province, and that exports of service trade are tourism and transportation. Although the emerging technology-intensive trade in services is growing rapidly, the proportion of overall exports is very small, which makes the service trade in Shandong Province very passive in the division of labor system in China and the world. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to find out the factors that affect the export structure of Shandong service trade and its specific influence degree. It puts forward policy recommendations to optimize the export structure of service trade in Shandong Province, which will improve the level of service industry and the quality of service trade in the whole region. According to the current situation of service trade in Shandong Province and the existing problems of export structure, this paper selects human capital, material capital, technological progress, open degree of service trade. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in service industry and scale of trade in goods are the six factors that influence the structure change of service trade export in Shandong province. On this basis, the relevant indexes of each factor are selected, and the statistical data from 2003 to 2013 are taken as samples. This paper establishes econometric model, empirically analyzes the influence of various factors on the export structure of Shandong service trade, and draws a conclusion: human capital, material capital, technological progress, open degree of service trade, and the increase of FDI in service industry. It is beneficial to the optimization of the export structure of Shandong service trade, but the development of the goods trade can restrain the optimization and upgrading of the export structure of Shandong service trade.
【学位授予单位】：兰州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68
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本文编号：1541757