我国服务业“成本

发布时间：2018-03-04 00:04

本文选题：服务业　切入点：成本病　出处：《浙江大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年始于美国并蔓延至全球的金融危机引发了世界范围内关于经济发展问题的思考,这次危机不仅仅是经济发展过程中的周期性因素所导致,还有较大部分是结构性因素使然。经济危机的缓解离不开经济结构的调整,调整经济结构在很大程度上是调整产业结构,这就使得服务业的重要地位日益凸显。2014年,我国服务业发展迅速,服务业增加值占GDP的比重超过第二产业,成为对经济增长贡献最大的产业；同时,服务业吸纳就业人数增长迅速,成为吸纳就业最多的产业。服务业在我国经济和社会发展中的地位越来越重要。然而,服务业却表现出劳动生产率增长滞后于第二产业的特征,这就使得对于服务业是否存在“成本病”问题的研究提上日程。本文以我国服务业为研究对象,将理论分析和实证分析相结合,对我国服务业是否存在“成本病”隐患及其福利效应进行相关研究。在已有研究的基础上,本文首先对国内外相关文献进行梳理,概括出服务业“成本病”的一般特征,进而构造包含价格、工资水平及产出的计量模型,运用投入及产出数据测度出服务业的劳动生产率及需求价格和收入弹性,从而测度服务业“成本病”的存在性。本文运用1999-2012年我国30个省市(除西藏)的面板数据进行回归,实证结果表明无论是全国还是分地区层面我国都存在“成本病”隐患。此外,本文从价格效应和收入效应两个方面分析了服务业“成本病”影响福利水平的一般机制,并从可标准化服务业与非标准化服务业两个角度探讨了服务业“成本病”影响福利水平的传导路径,并在此基础上构造出一个服务业“成本病”影响福利水平的三部门理论模型,并通过模型的求解,得出能使福利水平达到最大化的最适宜的服务价格水平。在理论分析的基础上,构造包含福利水平、服务业价格水平、工资水平及其他控制变量的计量模型,运用2000-2012年中国30个省市(除西藏)的面板数据对服务业“成本病”对福利水平的影响进行实证检验,实证结果表明,无论是全国还是分地区层面,我国服务业“成本病”都没有降低福利水平,并对这种结果出现的可能原因进行了探讨。最后,在理论分析和实证研究的基础上,本文就如何因地制宜缓解我国服务业“成本病”隐患,促进服务业健康发展,并稳步提升社会福利水平给出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the financial crisis, which began in the United States and spread to the world, triggered worldwide thinking about economic development, which was not just caused by cyclical factors in the process of economic development. The economic crisis can not be alleviated without the adjustment of the economic structure, which to a large extent is the adjustment of the industrial structure, which makes the service industry increasingly important. In 2014, The service industry in China has developed rapidly, the added value of the service industry has surpassed the secondary industry in the proportion of GDP, and has become the industry that contributes the most to economic growth. At the same time, the number of service industries absorbing employment is growing rapidly. Service industry is more and more important in the economic and social development of our country. However, the service industry shows that the growth of labor productivity lags behind that of the second industry. This makes the research on whether there is a "cost disease" in the service industry on the agenda. This paper takes the service industry of our country as the research object, combining the theoretical analysis with the empirical analysis. This paper studies on the hidden danger of "cost disease" and its welfare effect in China's service industry. On the basis of existing research, this paper firstly combs the relevant literature at home and abroad, generalizes the general characteristics of "cost sickness" in the service industry, and then constructs an econometric model including price, wage level and output. This paper uses input and output data to measure the labor productivity, demand price and income elasticity of the service industry, and then measures the existence of the "cost sickness" in the service industry. This paper uses panel data from 30 provinces and cities (excluding Tibet) in China from 1999 to 2012 to carry out regression analysis. The empirical results show that there are hidden dangers of "cost disease" in China, both nationally and regionally. In addition, this paper analyzes the general mechanism of "cost sickness" affecting welfare level in the service industry from two aspects: price effect and income effect. And from the standardised service industry and the non-standardized service industry, this paper discusses the transmission path of the service industry's "cost disease" affecting the welfare level. On this basis, a three-sector theoretical model of "cost sickness" affecting welfare level in the service industry is constructed, and solved by the model. On the basis of theoretical analysis, a measurement model including welfare level, service price level, wage level and other control variables is constructed. Using panel data from 30 provinces and cities in China (except Tibet) from 2000 to 2012 to test the impact of "cost sickness" on the welfare level of the service industry, the empirical results show that, whether at the national or regional level, The "cost sickness" of the service industry in China has not reduced the welfare level, and the possible causes of this result have been discussed. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research, This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to alleviate the hidden trouble of "cost disease" in service industry, promote the healthy development of service industry, and raise the level of social welfare steadily.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F719

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