物价变动对农村居民福利影响的统计研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 07:23

本文选题：双重门限　切入点：Boostrap　出处：《太原理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国是一个农业人口大国，解决三农问题，是现代化进程中的重大任务。合理测度农村居民福利水平是改善民生、服务三农的重要前提。另外，物价变动是影响农村居民福利水平的重要因素，研究物价变动对农村居民福利水平的影响，为政府调节农村居民福利水平提供科学依据，对改善农村居民福利水平现状具有重大的理论和实际价值。本文依据福利经济理论，结合中国农村居民特点构建了农村居民福利水平统计指标体系，并进行了统计测算，借助面板数据统计模型和面板门限的估计方法从消费、生产、销售三个角度分析了物价变动对农村居民福利水平的影响，基于Lucas的福利效用理论对物价变动造成的农村居民福利损失进行了统计测算。选取了中国统计年鉴中2003-2013年31个省、直辖市、自治区的相关指标数据进行了实证分析。主要结论如下：（1）构建了农村居民福利水平的统计指标体系，其中包括收入与消费水平、社会保障水平、医疗卫生水平、农业生产水平以及教育文化水平五个一级指标，每个一级指标各有两个二级指标，指标间的冗余度和相关性较低，独立性高。（2）农村居民福利水平指标的重要性随着时期变化而有所不同，例如：2005-2006年农村居民福利水平权重最大的指标是医疗卫生水平，2007-2009年农村居民福利水平权重最大的指标是社会保障水平。2010年以后，农村居民福利水平权重最大的指标是教育文化水平。（3）农村居民消费价格指数（CPI）对农村居民福利水平的影响存在门限效应，即：当CPI0.0002时，是所谓的通货紧缩时期，，CPI变动对农村居民福利影响是负向；当0.0002CPI0.036时，CPI变动对农村居民福利水平影响是正向的；当CPI0.036时，CPI变动对农村居民的福利影响是负向且负向效应系数约为-0.1415。（4）物价变动对农村居民福利水平存在着显著影响，主要表现如下： ①农村居民福利水平自身具有明显的棘轮效应，即滞后一期的农村居民福利平均水平对当期的农村居民福利平均水平具有重要影响，影响系数约为0.8。 ②农业生产资料价格变动对农村居民福利平均水平存在负向影响，影响系数是-0.18，即生产资料价格变动1%个单位引起农村居民福利平均水平变化0.18%个单位。 ③粮食类产品当期价格变动对农村居民福利水平无明显影响，滞后一期的价格变动对农村居民福利水平存在正向影响，影响系数约是0.1，即粮食类商品滞后一期的价格变动1%个单位会引起农村居民福利平均水平变化0.1%个单位。 ④利率变动对农村居民福利平均水平有负向影响，且系数约为-0.03，即：利率每变化1个百分点会引起农村居民福利平均水平变化0.03个百分点。（5）物价变动造成农村居民总体福利损失存在着较大的地区差异性，其中，最大的地区是北京市，最小地区是青海省，东部及西部部分省份总体福利损失较小，中部及西南地区总体福利损失较大。
[Abstract]:China is an agricultural country with a large population, solve the problem of agriculture, is a major task in the process of modernization. The welfare level of rural residents is a reasonable measure to improve people's livelihood, an important prerequisite for rural services. In addition, price fluctuation is an important factor affecting the welfare level of rural residents, on the impact of price fluctuation on the welfare level of rural residents, provide science the basis for the government to regulate the welfare level of rural residents, it has great theoretical and practical significance to improve the current situation of the welfare level of rural residents.
Based on the theory of welfare economics, establishes the statistical index system of welfare level of rural residents of rural residents with Chinese characteristics and statistical calculation, estimation method by using panel data statistical model and panel threshold from three aspects of consumption, production, sales of price changes on the welfare level of rural residents, rural residents welfare loss welfare utility theory of price changes caused by Lucas were carried out based on the statistical estimates. The Chinese statistical yearbook 2003-2013 years in 31 provinces, municipalities, autonomous regions of the relevant data for the empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) establishes the statistical index system of welfare level of rural residents, including income and consumption level, the level of social security, health care, agricultural production level and educational level five level indicators, each first level index of each of the two level two indexes, low standard redundancy and correlation independent, high.
(2) the importance of welfare level index of rural residents with the period of change, for example: the maximum welfare level of rural residents weight indicators for 2005-2006 years is the health level of rural residents, the maximum level of welfare weights 2007-2009 years of social security level index is.2010 years later, the largest weight index level of rural residents' welfare is the level of education and culture.
(3) rural consumer price index (CPI) effect on welfare level of rural residents exists threshold effects, namely: when CPI0.0002, is called the period of deflation, CPI changes on the impact of rural residents' welfare is negative; when 0.0002CPI0.036, CPI changes on welfare level of rural residents is positive; when CPI0.036 CPI, changes in welfare effects of rural residents is negative and the negative effect coefficient is about -0.1415.
(4) the price changes have a significant impact on the welfare level of rural residents, the main manifestations are as follows:
(1) the welfare level of rural residents themselves has obvious ratcheting effect, that is, the average level of rural residents' welfare in a lag period has an important impact on the average welfare level of rural residents in the current period, and the influence coefficient is about 0.8..
(2) the price change of agricultural means of production has a negative impact on the average level of rural residents' welfare. The coefficient of influence is -0.18, that is, the 1% units of the price of producer goods change the average level of the rural residents' welfare to 0.18% units.
The current food products price changes have no significant effect on the welfare level of rural residents, the lagged price changes have a positive influence on the welfare level of rural residents, the influence coefficient is about 0.1, namely grain commodities lagged changes in the price of 1% units will cause the rural residents welfare average change of 0.1% units.
(4) interest rate change has a negative impact on the average level of rural residents' welfare, and the coefficient is about -0.03. That is, interest rate changes 1 percentage points, which will cause the rural residents' welfare average level to change by 0.03 percentage points.
(5) there are great regional differences in the total welfare loss of rural residents caused by price changes. The largest area is Beijing, the smallest area is Qinghai Province, the eastern and western parts of the province has a smaller total welfare loss, and the overall welfare loss in the central and southwest regions is relatively large.

【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F726;F323.89;F224

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