基于随机前沿引力模型的CAFTA贸易规模和结构潜力的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 20:40

本文选题：中国与东盟自由贸易区　切入点：贸易规模潜力　出处：《华侨大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：21世纪“海上丝绸之路”的战略布局加强了中国与新丝绸之路上各个国家的合作与交流,其中备受瞩目的是CAFTA的进一步深化和发展。双边的贸易在之前签订的合作框架下获得了前所未有的突破,中国在这一环境驱动下成为了东盟的最大贸易伙伴,而东盟也成为了中国在亚洲第一大贸易伙伴在全球的第三大贸易伙伴。此次21世纪“海上丝绸之路”的建设为深化中国—东盟之间的合作,打造中国—东盟自由贸易区升级版和开创中国与东盟发展新的“钻石十年”提供了契机,在此背景下研究中国与东盟双边贸易总量和结构的潜力及影响因素,对扩大双边贸易规模和提升贸易的质量具有重要的现实意义。本文首先梳理了国内外相关的文献在此基础上阐述了自由贸易的相关理论,并具体分析了当下中国东盟双边贸易的状况和特点,发现双边贸易取得重大成就,商品关税几乎降到零,贸易量不断创新高,贸易商品结构出现互补性和竞争性并存的现象。随后,借鉴前人的研究经验引入随机前沿引力模型分别从贸易规模和结构的角度测算中国与东盟六国的贸易效率,并运用一步法分析影响贸易的因素。结果表明:(1)影响因素:经济规模、人口、距离、华人是影响双边贸易的核心因素,关税、清关手续、运输的便利化程度、货币自由度、政治领海争端等在不同程度上影响贸易的效率。(2)贸易效率:从国别分析,中国与东盟六国的贸易效率差异性较大,中国对东盟出口效率高的国家是马来西亚、泰国、印尼、越南、新加坡,而对菲律宾的出口效率极低。中国对东盟进口效率高的国家是新加坡和泰国,而越南、印尼和马来西亚的进口效率都较低。从结构分析,中国对东盟各国出口商品效率高的集中在低技术制成品和中技术产品,而中国对东盟进口商品效率高的集中在中技术加工产品和电子电力产品,其余进出口商品结构效率都比较低还有进一步拓展的空间。最后本文针对中国与东盟贸易中存在贸易规模和结构效率低的问题提出了加强双边贸易便利化程度的建设、调整进出口结构、加快产品差异化发展、加强政治文化交流合作、有效解决领海争端等对策来拓展中国东盟双边的贸易。
[Abstract]:In 21th century, the strategic layout of the "Maritime Silk Road" strengthened the cooperation and exchanges between China and various countries on the New Silk Road. Among them, much attention has been paid to the further deepening and development of CAFTA. Bilateral trade has made an unprecedented breakthrough under the framework of previously signed cooperation. China has become ASEAN's largest trading partner driven by this environment. ASEAN has also become China's third largest trading partner in Asia in the world. In 21th century, the "Maritime Silk Road" was built to deepen cooperation between China and ASEAN. The creation of an upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area and the creation of a new "Diamond decade" for the development of China and ASEAN provide an opportunity to study the potential and influence factors of the total volume and structure of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN in this context. It is of great practical significance to expand the scale of bilateral trade and improve the quality of trade. And it concretely analyzes the current situation and characteristics of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN, and finds that bilateral trade has made great achievements, commodity tariffs have almost been reduced to zero, and the volume of trade continues to reach a new high. Then, the stochastic frontier gravity model is introduced to measure the trade efficiency between China and ASEAN from the perspective of trade scale and structure. The results show that: economic scale, population, distance, Chinese are the core factors affecting bilateral trade, tariff, customs clearance, transport facilitation, and monetary freedom. The efficiency of trade is affected by political disputes over territorial waters to varying degrees: from a country analysis, the trade efficiency between China and the six ASEAN countries is quite different. The countries with high efficiency in China's exports to ASEAN are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Vietnam, Singapore, and exports to the Philippines are extremely inefficient. China's highly efficient imports to ASEAN are Singapore and Thailand, while Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia are all inefficient. China's highly efficient exports to ASEAN countries are concentrated on low-technology manufactured goods and medium-technology products, while China's highly efficient imports of ASEAN goods are concentrated on Chinese-technologically processed products and electronic power products. The other import and export commodities have low structural efficiency and there is room for further expansion. Finally, this paper puts forward the construction of strengthening the degree of bilateral trade facilitation in view of the problems of low trade scale and low structural efficiency in the trade between China and ASEAN. Adjusting the structure of import and export, speeding up the development of product differentiation, strengthening the political and cultural exchange and cooperation, effectively resolving the territorial sea dispute and other countermeasures to expand the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.7

【相似文献】