自由贸易区下中国贸易结构与经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 12:48

本文选题：自由贸易区　切入点：贸易结构　出处：《河北工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前,全球经济一体化已成为世界发展的潮流,而区域经济一体化作为国际多边贸易体制的过渡阶段和补充形式,其发展势头也迅速崛起,特别是自由贸易区的发展也开始成为区域经济一体化的主导形式。因此,中国在成为WTO成员后开始积极参与区域贸易协定的谈判和签署,而且参与方式也开始由多边机制向多边和双边的“双轮驱动”进行转变。在中国共产党的十七大上,明确提出了实施自由贸易区战略的构想,说明党和政府已经正式把发展自由贸易区的区域经济合作上升到国家战略层面,这将进一步推动我国自由贸易区的建设和发展。本文的研究是以中国-东盟自贸区为例,通过对自由贸易区下中国贸易结构和经济效应进行研究,来揭示自贸区下中国贸易结构和产业结构的发展方向,以及自贸区的福利损益,从而使我国能参与和利用好自贸区,为我国经济进一步发展提供新的增长点。这一研究将为我国进一步参与区域经济一体化提供决策依据,引导我国在实施自贸区战略时能选择有利于我国产业发展的经济体,这对我国自贸区的发展具有重要的现实意义和应用价值。在贸易结构研究中,本文以中国-东盟自贸区为对象,分别从产业间、产业内、产品内三个贸易视角对自贸区下中国贸易结构的变迁进行了研究;而在经济效应的研究中,本文主要利用VAR或VEC模型研究了中国建立自贸区后各部门的动态经济效应,并以中国-东盟自贸区为例进行了分析。本文关于自由贸易区下中国贸易结构的研究显示,中国贸易结构实现了较大的转变,主要是从以产业间贸易为主转向以产业内贸易为主,以资源密集型和劳动密集型产业为主转向以资本密集型和技术密集型产业为主,而且长期内自由贸易区不会使我国贸易结构出现低端化。自由贸易区的成立会使贸易部门中总出口增加,而总进口短期内增加,长期内会下降;工业部门中工业增加值和就业水平短期内会下降,在长期中经过调整就会增加,而平均工资报酬的下降与之关联不大;投资部门中对外商直接投资水平没有不利影响。总之,自由贸易区对我国的经济发展总体上是利大于弊。
[Abstract]:At present, global economic integration has become the trend of world development, and regional economic integration, as a transitional stage and a supplementary form of the international multilateral trading system, has also developed rapidly. In particular, the development of free trade zones has also begun to become the dominant form of regional economic integration. Therefore, after becoming a member of the WTO, China has actively participated in the negotiation and signing of regional trade agreements. Moreover, the mode of participation has also begun to change from a multilateral mechanism to a multilateral and bilateral "two-wheel drive". At the 17th CPC National Congress, the concept of implementing the free trade zone strategy was clearly put forward. It shows that the party and government have formally raised the regional economic cooperation in the development of free trade area to the national strategic level, which will further promote the construction and development of China's free trade area. By studying the trade structure and economic effect of China under the free trade zone, this paper reveals the developing direction of China's trade structure and industrial structure under the free trade zone, as well as the welfare gains and losses of the free trade area, so that China can participate in and make good use of the free trade area. This research will provide a decision basis for our country to participate in regional economic integration further, and guide our country to choose the economy favorable to the industrial development of our country when implementing the strategy of free trade zone. This has important practical significance and application value to the development of China's free trade zone. In the study of trade structure, this paper takes the China-ASEAN Free Trade area as the object, respectively from the inter-industry, intra-industry, Three intra-product trade perspectives are used to study the changes of China's trade structure under the free trade zone, while in the study of economic effects, this paper mainly uses VAR or VEC models to study the dynamic economic effects of various sectors after the establishment of free trade zones in China. Taking the China-ASEAN Free Trade area as an example, the research on China's trade structure under the Free Trade area shows that China's trade structure has changed greatly. Mainly from inter-industry trade to intra-industry trade, resource-intensive and labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. The establishment of the free trade zone will increase the total export in the trade sector, while the total import will increase in the short term, and will decrease in the long term. Industrial value added and employment levels in the industrial sector will decline in the short term and will increase in the long run after adjustment, but the decline in average wages and remuneration will not be associated with it; there will be no adverse impact on the level of foreign direct investment in the investment sector. Free trade area is more good than bad for the economic development of our country on the whole.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7

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