贸易开放对碳排放影响效应的研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 10:15

本文选题：碳排放 + 贸易开放　；参考：《浙江大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,气候变化已经开始影响人类的生活,全世界都开始越来越关注碳排放问题,低碳经济已成为热点话题。中国作为最大的发展中国家,碳排放总量已跃居世界第一,超过了美国和欧盟碳排放量的总和。而我国的贸易发展也非常迅速,如今已经成为了全球最大贸易国。对外贸易作为我国经济的三驾马车之一很大程度上拉动了我国经济的发展,而贸易开放、经济增长和我国碳排放之间的相关关系成为了关键问题。基于IPCC给出的估算碳排放的方法,本文通过使用2002-2012年的省级面板数据检验了贸易开放和其他主要变量对中国碳排放的影响,目的是为我国能源及减排政策提供科学的依据。根据空间计量模型,得出贸易开放的碳排放弹性系数为0.068,即贸易开放提高1%,二氧化碳排放增加0.068%。因此,贸易开放对碳排放的效应总体是正的,说明我国通过贸易成为了其他国家的污染天堂。此外,本文验证了我国经济增长与碳排放存在倒U型的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系,而城市化水平、研发水平、产业结构与碳排放均存在显著的正相关关系。然后本文根据贸易商品种类的划分,基于中国各省份按海关HS编码划分的不同种类商品贸易数据,研究不同商品贸易开放对碳排放的影响效应,结果发现其影响效应各不相同。纺织品和高科技产品的贸易开放对碳排放有积极作用,而机械产品及矿产品的贸易开放对碳排放有消极影响。进一步对其进出口与碳排放关系进行研究,发现出口商品结构对碳排放有重要影响。通过对中国贸易开放对碳排放影响效应的研究,结合可持续发展经济的形势,本文分别从国家和产业层面提出完善贸易政策,加快出口产品结构调整等建议。
[Abstract]:At present, climate change has begun to affect human life, the world began to pay more and more attention to carbon emissions, low-carbon economy has become a hot topic.As the largest developing country, China has surpassed the United States and the European Union combined in terms of total carbon emissions, ranking first in the world.China's trade has also developed very rapidly and has become the largest trading country in the world.As one of the troika of China's economy, foreign trade has greatly promoted the development of China's economy, and the relationship among trade openness, economic growth and China's carbon emissions has become a key issue.Based on the method of estimating carbon emissions proposed by IPCC, this paper examines the impact of trade liberalization and other major variables on China's carbon emissions by using provincial panel data from 2002 to 2012, in order to provide a scientific basis for China's energy and emission reduction policies.According to the spatial measurement model, the elastic coefficient of carbon emissions of open trade is 0.068, that is, trade opening increases by 1 and carbon dioxide emissions increase by 0.068.Therefore, the effect of trade liberalization on carbon emissions is positive, indicating that China has become the pollution paradise of other countries through trade.In addition, this paper verifies that there is an inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve between economic growth and carbon emissions in China, but there is a significant positive correlation between urbanization level, R & D level, industrial structure and carbon emissions.Then, according to the classification of trade commodity types and the trade data of different kinds of commodities classified by customs HS code, this paper studies the effect of different commodity trade opening on carbon emissions. The results show that the effects are different.Trade liberalization of textiles and high-tech products has a positive effect on carbon emissions, while trade liberalization of machinery products and mineral products has a negative impact on carbon emissions.Further study on the relationship between import and export and carbon emissions shows that the structure of export commodities has an important impact on carbon emissions.Based on the study of the effect of China's trade opening on carbon emissions and the situation of sustainable economic development, this paper puts forward some suggestions from the national and industrial levels to improve the trade policy and speed up the adjustment of export product structure.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752;X22

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