我国贸易失衡问题再分析——基于经济结构的视角

发布时间：2018-04-18 13:26

本文选题：贸易失衡 + 经济结构　；参考：《国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报)》2016年01期

【摘要】：本文基于Melvin模型,从理论层面分析一国经济结构对其贸易收支的影响,进而整理我国1994年至2012年宏观经济数据,采用协整理论、Granger因果检验、脉冲分析法等时间序列方法对我国经济结构、财政赤字、实际汇率及贸易收支之间的动态关系进行分析发现:经济结构是影响我国贸易收支的主要因素,其中第三产业创造的GDP占比扩大可以改善我国贸易收支,第二产业占GDP比重增加会引起更大规模的贸易失衡;而人民币升值后反而会扩大我国贸易顺差,印证了我国货币升值与贸易顺差增长共存的现状,同时也说明美国等国迫使人民币升值以改善其贸易逆差在实践中是不合理的。本文政策意义在于:对我国贸易失衡问题的调整主要应依靠经济结构的优化,而非单一运用汇率手段。
[Abstract]:Based on the Melvin model, this paper analyzes the influence of a country's economic structure on its trade balance from a theoretical level, and then collates the macroeconomic data of China from 1994 to 2012.The dynamic relationship among China's economic structure, fiscal deficit, real exchange rate and trade income and expenditure is analyzed by time series method such as pulse analysis. It is found that economic structure is the main factor affecting China's trade income and expenditure.The expansion of the proportion of GDP created by the tertiary industry can improve China's trade balance, and the increase in the proportion of secondary industry to GDP will lead to a larger trade imbalance. However, after the appreciation of the RMB, China's trade surplus will be enlarged.It confirms the coexistence of currency appreciation and trade surplus growth in China, and it also shows that it is unreasonable in practice for the United States and other countries to force RMB appreciation to improve their trade deficit.The policy significance of this paper is that the adjustment of China's trade imbalance should mainly depend on the optimization of economic structure, not on the use of exchange rate alone.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“服务业总体规模、结构演进的历史趋势和内在机理研究”(11BJL064);国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目“后金融危机时代中国参与全球经济再平衡的战略与路径研究”(11&ZD008)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F752.7

【相似文献】