中国服务贸易出口影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 04:09

本文选题：服务贸易 + 影响因素　；参考：《吉林财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,对外贸易尤其是货物贸易的发展为我国经济增长做出了巨大贡献,在如今西方发达国家金融危机缓慢复苏和产业结构大调整的背景下,对外贸易中货物贸易增长乏力,服务贸易活力凸显,增长潜力逐步释放。当前,我国第三产业所占比重虽已超过第二产业,服务业和服务贸易都有所发展,但相对于发达国家而言仍相当落后。作为外贸中增长强劲的新势力,服务贸易的发展对优化我国经济结构,提升我国在国际分工中的地位,具有重要的战略意义,因此,对服务贸易发展的影响因素的研究也显得尤为重要且迫在眉睫。本文首先对服务贸易相关概念和理论进行了系统的综述,在此基础上对服务贸易出口影响因素进行了梳理,进而对中国服务贸易发展现状进行了全面的分析,具体包括服务贸易的发展规模、速度以及服务贸易结构。在此基础上,对影响我国服务贸易发展的影响因素进行了实证分析:首先,通过运用灰色关联理论计算了我国服务贸易出口额与其各个影响因素之间的关联度,其中货物出口额、人均GDP、从事RD人员、服务业增加值、实际使用外资和全社会固定资产投资于第三产业这六个因素依次排名前六位,关联度均超过0.7;进而选取关联度最高的货物出口额,运用协整和误差修正模型分长期和短期两个方面对我国服务贸易出口额受货物贸易出口额的影响进行分析,结果显示:两者之间存在长期的协整关系,短期内对长期均衡的偏离能够进行一定程度的修正;然后对服务贸易出口行业按要素密集型分成劳动密集型、资本密集型和知识技术密集型三类,运用典型相关分析研究其受前述六个主要因素影响的差异,其中服务业增加值、从事RD人员对服务贸易出口均有较大的影响,并对其中知识技术密集型服务贸易出口影响作用显著;FDI实际使用外资和货物贸易出口额对服务贸易各要素密集型服务贸易出口的影响作用明显,尤其是劳动和资本密集型服务贸易出口。最终根据定量分析的结果,提出了促进服务贸易出口发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the development of foreign trade, especially trade in goods, has made a great contribution to the economic growth of our country. Under the background of the slow recovery of financial crisis and the adjustment of industrial structure in western developed countries, In foreign trade, the growth of goods trade is weak, the vitality of service trade is prominent, and the growth potential is gradually released. At present, the proportion of the tertiary industry in our country has surpassed the secondary industry, the service industry and the service trade have developed, but they are still relatively backward compared with the developed countries. As a new force with strong growth in foreign trade, the development of service trade plays an important strategic role in optimizing China's economic structure and promoting our country's position in the international division of labor. The research on the factors influencing the development of trade in services is particularly important and urgent. In this paper, the related concepts and theories of trade in services are systematically summarized, and then the factors affecting the export of trade in services are combed out, and then the development status of China's trade in services is comprehensively analyzed. It includes the scale, speed and structure of service trade. On this basis, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of the development of China's service trade. Firstly, it calculates the correlation degree between the export value of China's service trade and its influencing factors by using the grey correlation theory. Among them, the six factors of goods export, per capita GDP, Rd personnel, service industry added value, actual use of foreign capital and investment in fixed assets of the whole society in the tertiary industry ranked the first six in turn. The correlation degree is more than 0.7, and then select the export value of goods with the highest correlation degree, and analyze the influence of the export value of service trade of our country by the export value of goods trade in the long term and in the short term by using the cointegration and error correction model. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the two, and the deviation from the long-term equilibrium can be corrected to a certain extent in the short term. There are three types of capital-intensive and knowledge-technology-intensive, using canonical correlation analysis to study the differences affected by the six main factors mentioned above, in which the added value of service industry and Rd personnel have great influence on the export of service trade. The impact of FDI on the export of knowledge-technology-intensive service trade is significant, and the impact of FDI actual use of foreign capital and exports of trade in goods on the export of services trade of various factors is obvious. In particular, labor and capital-intensive services exports. Finally, according to the results of quantitative analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the export development of service trade.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.68

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