基于用户需求分析的居民天然气阶梯定价政策研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 09:04

本文选题：居民天然气 + 需求弹性　；参考：《合肥工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源结构调整、低碳经济发展的要求带动了我国天然气消费的迅速增长,天然气进口日益增加。传统的居民“低气价”政策弊端逐渐突显,为了解决交叉补贴问题、体现社会公平,同时引导居民合理用气、节约用气,国家发改委出台了《关于建立健全居民生活用气阶梯价格制度的指导意见》。但是在“保基本”的原则下,当前的阶梯气价方案较为“温和”,其实施效果也有待检验。用户的需求弹性和价格承受能力是居民能源价格改革的重要影响因素,本文将估算不同收入等级居民用户的天然气需求弹性和价格承受能力,基于研究结论分析当前阶梯气价政策存在的问题,并提出相应的改进措施。本文以北京市为例,首先运用ELES模型估算不同收入等级居民用户的天然气需求收入弹性、价格弹性;其次,基于支出收入比法(EIR)、扩展线性支出系统(ELES)构建了居民天然气价格能力承受能力模型(EIR-ELES),测算了北京市2015年不同收入等级居民用户的天然气价格承受能力,并对2016-2020年居民天然气价格承受能力进行预测。研究结果显示:1)居民天然气需求对收入和价格均不敏感;不同收入等级居民用户的天然气需求价格弹性的绝对值均高于收入弹性;收入越高,需求收入弹性也越高,需求价格弹性绝对值也越高。2)居民用户的天然气价格承受能力在3.82-10.4元/立方米之间,且收入水平越高,天然气价格承受能力也越高。预测得到2016-2020年北京市居民天然气价格承受能力是逐年上升的,且高收入户与低收入户的承受能力价差逐年增大。3)不同收入等级居民用户天然气户均基本需求量较小,随着居民天然气价格承受能力的增长,居民用气量也在增长。结合本文研究结果,从气价和用气量两个角度对当前阶梯气价政策进行分析,发现现行阶梯气价第一、二档气价差距较小,第三档气价水平不高,首档用气量设定过高,阶梯气价第一档覆盖范围太大。因而本文建议从阶梯气价的分档气价、分档气量、用气量计量周期和分档数等方面完善优化阶梯气价政策,建立阶梯气价动态调整机制。
[Abstract]:With the adjustment of energy structure and the development of low carbon economy, the demand for the development of low carbon economy has led to the rapid growth of China's natural gas consumption and the increasing import of natural gas. The disadvantages of the traditional "low gas price" policy are gradually highlighted. In order to solve the problem of cross subsidy, the social equity is reflected, and the residents are reasonably used to use gas and save gas. However, under the principle of "guarantee basic", the current staircase gas price scheme is more "mild", and the effect of its application needs to be tested. The elasticity of demand and the ability to bear the price are important factors for the reform of the energy price of the residents. This article will estimate the different income. Based on the research conclusions, this paper analyzes the existing problems of the gas price policy and puts forward the corresponding improvement measures based on the research conclusions. This paper, taking Beijing as an example, first uses the ELES model to estimate the elasticity of income elasticity and price elasticity of the natural gas demand for different income level residents. Secondly, the basis of this paper is the basis of the analysis. In terms of expenditure and income ratio (EIR) and extended linear expenditure system (ELES), a model of resident natural gas price capacity affordability (EIR-ELES) was constructed, and the natural gas price endurance of residents of different income levels in Beijing in 2015 was measured and the price endurance of the residents was predicted for 2016-2020 years. The results showed that 1) residents Natural gas demand is not sensitive to both income and price; the absolute value of price elasticity of natural gas demand for residents of different income grades is higher than that of income elasticity; the higher the income, the higher the elasticity of demand income and the higher the absolute value of demand price elasticity.2), the natural gas price endurance of the residents is between 3.82-10.4 yuan / m3, and The higher the income level, the higher the ability of natural gas price to bear. It is predicted that the 2016-2020 year Beijing residents' natural gas price bearing capacity is increasing year by year, and the price difference between high income households and low-income households is increasing by.3 year by year. The basic demand of natural gas households of residents of different income levels is smaller, with the natural gas price of residents. According to the results of this paper, the current staircase gas price policy is analyzed from two angles of gas price and gas consumption. It is found that the first step gas price is first, the second gear gas price gap is small, the third gear price is not high, the first gear is set too high, and the first gear range of staircase gas price is too wide. Therefore, this paper proposes to optimize the staircase gas price policy and establish the dynamic adjustment mechanism of staircase gas price from the split gas price of staircase gas price, the volume of gas, the cycle of gas measurement and the number of stalls.

【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.24;F726

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