利比里亚的出口对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 15:17

本文选题：实际出口 + 实际进口　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本研究假设1980-2016利比里亚的经济是出口主导型的。从对利比里亚的经济增长的显著作用上看,利比里亚的出口增长率较1997-2005年间相比的33.8%,在2006-2013年间,平均增长率达57.1%;经济增长伴随着急剧变化。在此后的时期里,一旦出口增长,利比里亚的经济平均增长率为7.4%(世界银行WDI 2015)。与GDP的增长率一致,利比里亚成为世界上经济增长最快的经济体(世界银行2010)。然而,出口与出口导向政策对经济的真正益处仍然存在着争论。本研究发现,尽管过去36年的经济波动,对争论做出贡献的论点是通过考虑其他相关因素,促进了利比里亚的经济增长,推出实质性的证据表明出口对经济增长做出的贡献。本研究采用Toda的现代Granger因果关系检验和山本先进(1995)、Dolado和Lukepohl(1996)测试参数的VAR限制(K)假设在利比里亚出口检验模型为主导型增长(ELG)。另外,本研究还考虑了1980至2015年间的年度数据,以对该假设进行检验。在符合符合估计模型的框架内开始分析二元框架。实证结果表明,实际出口的变化先于实际GDP的变化。以对二元系统的考量,不考虑潜在变量,仅考虑进口的NWALD测试作为一个内生变量。实验结果表明,不管从进口到国内生产总值,还是从出口到进口,都存在这明显的因果关系。最后,在第三个估计模型加入了生产函数,包括资本、劳动力和出口。在第三个模型中表明,MWALD的检测结果中,利比里亚的经济增长主要由以下的因素:实际出口,总固定资本(K)、劳动(L),和真正的进口(X)。在利比里亚的整体的研究结果支持ELG假说。VECM估计确认资本与经济增长之间,劳动力与经济增长之间存在着双向关系。然而,在利比里亚ELGH研究以前并没有突出资本和劳动力对经济增长的影响(Andrew 2015)。在这项研究中,劳动力和资本对出口和经济增长的重要影响则是表明了目前的贸易便利性并且促进政策改革。另外,政府需要实施新的政策,比如鼓励多元化,以此在WTO获取新市场的机会。一样的出口优先次序证明强烈的全球冲击导致了商品低价和全球需求下降。因此,鼓励政府继续推行目前的出口促进和扩张战略,作为吸引外向型投资的手段,同时,向利比里亚出口商提供市场准入。另一方面,有必要制定新政策或加强现有政策,以提高本地制造商与外国企业的竞争力。根据研究结果,利比里亚政府增长政策战略应着眼于长期使用ELG,长期采用进口替代(IS)战略。实施这一政策战略将需要执行审慎的投资政策,重点是在外国出口公司和当地制造商之间建立联系。从根本上说,经济特区的建立或加强,可以强化研究结果中投资出口关系的利用,创造长期的可持续增长。
[Abstract]:This study assumes that Liberia's economy was export-led from 1980-2016. In terms of significance to Liberia's economic growth, Liberia's export growth rate was 33.8% compared with 1997-2005, with an average growth rate of 57.1% in 2006-2013; economic growth was accompanied by sharp changes. In the subsequent period, once exports grew, Liberia's economy grew at an average rate of 7.4% (World Bank WDI 2015). Consistent with GDP growth, Liberia is the world's fastest-growing economy (World Bank 2010). However, the real economic benefits of export and export-oriented policies remain controversial. This study found that, despite the economic fluctuations of the past 36 years, the argument for contributing to the debate contributed to Liberia's economic growth by taking into account other relevant factors, producing substantial evidence of the contribution of exports to economic growth. In this study, the modern Granger causality test of Toda and the VAR limit K of the parameters tested by Yamamoto's 1995 / 1995 Dolado and Lukepohl's 1996) were used to assume that the model of export inspection in Liberia was the leading growth model. In addition, annual data from 1980 to 2015 were considered to test the hypothesis. The binary frame is analyzed within the framework of the coincidence estimation model. The empirical results show that the change of actual export is prior to the change of actual GDP. Considering the binary system, the potential variable is not considered, but only the imported NWALD test is considered as an endogenous variable. The experimental results show that there is a significant causal relationship between import and GDP, as well as from export to import. Finally, production functions are added to the third estimation model, including capital, labor and exports. In the third model, the test results of MWALD show that Liberia's economic growth is mainly due to the following factors: real exports, total fixed capital, labor, and real imports. The overall findings in Liberia support the ELG hypothesis. VECM estimates confirm a two-way relationship between capital and economic growth and between labor and economic growth. However, the impact of capital and labor on economic growth was not highlighted before the ELGH study in Liberia. In this study, the important impact of labor and capital on exports and economic growth is to show the current ease of trade and promote policy reform. In addition, the government needs to implement new policies, such as encouraging diversification, to gain access to new markets at WTO. The same export priorities prove that strong global shocks have led to lower commodity prices and lower global demand. The Government is therefore encouraged to continue its current export promotion and expansion strategy as a means of attracting export-oriented investment, while providing Liberian exporters with market access. On the other hand, it is necessary to develop new policies or strengthen existing policies to improve the competitiveness of local manufacturers and foreign enterprises. According to the findings, the Government of Liberia's growth policy strategy should focus on the long-term use of ELG and the long-term adoption of import substitution for ISS. The implementation of this policy strategy will require a prudent investment policy, focusing on the establishment of linkages between foreign exporters and local manufacturers. Fundamentally, the establishment or strengthening of special economic zones can strengthen the utilization of investment and export relations in the research results and create long-term sustainable growth.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F144.7;F754.47

【相似文献】