中国—海合会建立自由贸易区的经济效应分析

发布时间：2018-05-16 22:37

本文选题：中国——海合会自由贸易区 + 经济效应　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在全球经济一体化盛行的今天,各国都在积极寻找途径与别国建立良好的经贸合作关系,以更好的参与到世界市场中。WTO多哈回合谈判受阻,多边合作难以实现使得许多国家纷纷开始寻找合作伙伴建立双边合作框架。虽然中国的双边自贸区谈判起步较晚,但是现在越来越受到重视,政府更是在十七大报告中把建立自由贸易区谈判上升到了战略高度。目前,我国已经签署13个自贸协定,共涉及22个国家和地区,有9个自贸区正在谈判,6个自贸区正在研究。海合会除了与同为阿拉伯国家的黎巴嫩和叙利亚签订自由贸易协定以外,还积极推动与阿拉伯国家以外的国家或地区的自由贸易协定谈判,现在正在谈判的国家有欧盟、日本、中国、印度、巴基斯坦和土耳其等国家。中国与海合会都把中国-海合会自由贸易区当作重点谈判对象。海合会位于海湾地区,六个成员国均拥有巨大的原油储量与天然气资源,是世界上主要的能源出口国。中海自贸区的建立不仅可以保证充足稳定的原油进口,而且也能平衡双方的贸易逆差为我国企业带来经济利益。本文将运用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP),结合递推动态方法,对自由贸易区谈判的各种可能的结果进行模拟,并根据模拟结果分析自贸区的建立对我国经济发展、进出口、社会福利和各产业生产率等方面带来的经济效应。本文的模拟分为四种方案,方案一是中国与海合会建立自由贸易区,且所有商品关税为零;方案二是中国与海合会建立自由贸易区,石化产品关税降低50%,其他商品关税为零;方案三是中国、印度、日本都与海合会建立自由贸易区,所有商品关税为零;方案四是中国、印度、日本都与海合会建立自由贸易区,海合会对中国出口石化产品关税降低50%,其余商品关税为零。通过分析想要实现以下研究目的:第一,石化产品的关税是否会影响中国—海合会自贸区谈判的效果;第二,在这四种方案下我国的经济变动是怎样的,我国应该怎样应对。本文依据导言—理论分析—数据分析—结论的逻辑线路进行论述。在第一部分论述了中海自贸区建立的背景和本文的研究意义,并将学者们在经济一体化理论、中国与海合会经贸关系和GTAP模型等方面做的研究进行了总结。第二部分对区域一体化理论中的自由贸易区的理论基础进行了论述,介绍了用GTAP模型来模拟建立自贸区的经济效应的原理。第三部分是关于海合会六国概况、中国和海合会的经贸关系的介绍。第四部分是利用第八版的GTAP模型对以上提到的四种方案进行模拟,对模拟结果从各国经济增长、进出口变动、福利水平的变动、各产业生产率的角度进行了分析。第五部分是基于分析结果提出的一些建议。第六部分是对全文进行的总结。
[Abstract]:With the prevalence of global economic integration, all countries are actively looking for ways to establish good economic and trade cooperation with other countries in order to better participate in the Doha Round negotiations in the world market. Multilateral cooperation is difficult to achieve, so many countries are looking for partners to establish bilateral cooperation framework. Although China's bilateral free trade zone negotiations started late, they have been paid more and more attention, and the government has raised the negotiations on the establishment of a free trade zone to a strategic level in the report of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. At present, China has signed 13 free trade agreements, involving 22 countries and regions, 9 free trade zones are under negotiation and 6 free trade areas are under study. In addition to signing free trade agreements with Lebanon and Syria, which are Arab States, GCC is also actively promoting negotiations on free trade agreements with countries other than Arab countries or regions. Currently, the countries under negotiation are the European Union, Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey and other countries. Both China and GCC have made China-GCC Free Trade area a key negotiating point. The GCC, located in the Gulf region, is the world's leading energy exporter with vast reserves of crude oil and natural gas. The establishment of China Shipping Free Trade Zone can not only guarantee sufficient and stable crude oil imports, but also balance the trade deficit between the two sides, which will bring economic benefits to Chinese enterprises. In this paper, the global trade analysis model (GTAP) is used to simulate the possible results of the free trade area negotiations, and the establishment of the free trade zone is used to analyze the economic development, import and export of our country. The economic effects of social welfare and the productivity of various industries. The simulation of this paper is divided into four schemes: one is to establish a free trade zone with GCC, and the other is to establish a free trade zone with GCC, and the tariff on petrochemical products will be reduced by 50%, and the tariff on other commodities will be zero. The third option is that China, India and Japan will all establish a free trade zone with the GCC, with zero tariffs on all commodities. Option four is that China, India, and Japan will all establish a free trade zone with the GCC. GCC's duty on China's exports of petrochemical products reduced by 50 cents, the rest of the tariff is zero. The purpose of this study is as follows: first, whether the tariff of petrochemical products will affect the effect of the negotiation of the China-GCC Free Trade area; second, what is the economic change of our country under these four schemes, and how should our country deal with it? This paper discusses the logic circuit of introduction-theoretical analysis-data analysis-conclusion. In the first part, the background of the establishment of China Sea Free Trade area and the significance of this paper are discussed, and the scholars' research on economic integration theory, economic and trade relationship between China and GCC and GTAP model are summarized. The second part discusses the theoretical basis of free trade area in the theory of regional integration, and introduces the principle of using GTAP model to simulate the economic effect of establishing free trade area. The third part is an introduction to the six GCC countries and the economic and trade relations between China and GCC. The fourth part is to use the eighth edition of the GTAP model to simulate the above mentioned four schemes, the simulation results from the economic growth, import and export changes, changes in welfare levels, the perspective of the productivity of various industries are analyzed. The fifth part is based on the analysis of the results of some recommendations. The sixth part is the summary of the full text.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752

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