消费者有限理性下企业多代产品替代机理及其仿真分析

发布时间：2018-05-23 21:58

本文选题：有限理性 + Bass模型　；参考：《南京邮电大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着国内创新驱动发展战略的不断实施与推进,企业创新的主体地位不断得到提升,使得越来越多的企业日益重视市场消费者行为的研究,日益关注企业创新产品的更新换代和多代产品替代扩散的营销策略和手段等问题。由于市场消费者受到其生理和心理特征等约束,加之消费者不具备一套精准计算、完全一致的偏好体系,消费者大多数情况下会在能力可及范围之内进行新产品选择,使得消费者购买产品具有有限理性的特征,因此,消费者的有限理性对企业创新产品的市场扩散会产生影响。显然,研究消费者有限理性下企业创新产品的市场扩散问题,有助于企业及时创新产品,拓展新产品市场,提升企业市场竞争优势,其研究具有理论与现实意义。本文首先研究了消费者有限理性影响下企业产品更新换代扩散的机理,并设计问卷调查进行实证分析,建立了结构方程,从产品特征、需求特征、外部影响、有限理性因素等四个方面提炼出与多代产品替代相关的主要影响因素,分析了各因素之间的耦合关系和反馈机制,以Bass模型和Norton模型为基础,建立了含有有限理性因素的创新产品市场扩散模型(PR-Bass模型和PR-Norton模型),利用MATLAB软件进行仿真分析。仿真分析结果表明其扩散情况都符合“S”型的扩散曲线,但由于不同的影响因素,包括产品特征方面(价格、品牌等)和有限理性方面(情绪化和时间精力成本等)以及新产品不同的上市时机等因素都会影响产品扩散曲线的形状、陡峭程度、峰值等特征。论文研究将为企业创新产品的研发、市场进入和拓展提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:With the continuous implementation and promotion of the domestic innovation driven development strategy, the main position of enterprise innovation has been continuously promoted, which makes more and more enterprises pay more attention to the research of market consumer behavior, and pay more attention to the marketing strategy and means of the renewal of enterprise innovation products and the substitution diffusion of multi generation products. The consumer is constrained by its physiological and psychological characteristics, and the consumer does not have a set of accurate calculations, a fully consistent preference system. In most cases, consumers will choose new products within the range of ability and scope, making consumers buy products with limited rationality. Therefore, the limited rationality of consumers to enterprise innovation. The market diffusion of products will have an impact. Obviously, it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the market diffusion of enterprise innovation products under the limited rationality of consumers, which will help enterprises to innovate products in time, expand new product market and enhance the competitive advantage of enterprise market. The mechanism of the renewal and diffusion of the product is made, and the questionnaire survey is designed to make an empirical analysis. The structural equation is established. The main factors related to the substitution of multi generation products are extracted from four aspects, such as product characteristics, demand characteristics, external influence, and limited rational factors. The coupling relationship and feedback mechanism among various factors are analyzed, and Bass model and No are used. Based on the rton model, the market diffusion model of innovative products (PR-Bass model and PR-Norton model) with limited rational factors is established, and the simulation analysis is made using MATLAB software. The simulation results show that the diffusion condition is consistent with the "S" type diffusion curve, but because of the different influence factors, including product characteristics (price, product) And limited rationality (emotional and time and energy cost, etc.) and the different timing of the new product will affect the shape, steepness and peak value of the product diffusion curve. The paper will provide the decision-making basis for the research and development of enterprise innovation products, market entry and extension.
【学位授予单位】：南京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F713.55;F273.1

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