中国对外贸易的环境影响效应与绿色发展研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 19:18

  本文选题：环境效应 + 隐含污染　； 参考：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：当前,全球气候变化及其应对举世瞩目。从1979召开的第l届世界气候大会,到2016年正式生效的《巴黎协定》,凸显了全球气候治理日益成为国际社会的共识。随着人类环保意识的不断增强,作为重要经济活动的国际贸易,其与环境的关系日益成为焦点。从中国角度看,改革开放近四十年来,经济社会取得了重大发展,这其中对外贸易功不可没。但与此同时,中国资源消耗和环境污染问题也日益突出,给国内生态环境造成较大压力,在国际气候谈判中要求中国承担更多温室气体减排义务的呼声也与日高涨。中国为此做出了不懈努力,目前已确立了包括“绿色发展”和“开放发展”在内的“五大发展理念”,成为指导中国“十三五”时期国民经济和社会发展的核心理念。经济发展转型是大势所趋。因此,全面准确地认识中国对外贸易与环境的关系,明确绿色发展导向对对外贸易的影响,实现既有贸易增长从而经济发展、又有环境改善的“双赢”局面,这对实现中国更好的发展,以及在维护自己正当权利基础上努力构建人类命运共同体,都具有十分重要的参考借鉴意义。本文围绕这些问题做了一些探索。在梳理了国内外有关研究成果基础上,本文进行了理论和实证研究,从不同的研究视角并采取多种方法,分析了中国对外贸易与环境污染基本情况、对环境的影响效应,测算研究了中国外贸隐含污染、与主要贸易伙伴增加值贸易含污量,探讨了“开放发展”与“绿色发展”的耦合促进等问题,据此提出针对性的政策建议。本文主要内容与研究基本结论如下:首先,本文在回顾了有关研究的基础之上,梳理了对外贸易对环境产生的影响及其作用机理,为后文研究相关问题做了理论铺垫。其次,本文搜集整理了中国对外贸易与环境污染有关统计数据等基本情况,考察环境污染与对外贸易间的关系及其变化。研究证明,从绝对视角来看,中国对外贸易与环境污染总体呈现同步增长态势;从相对视角来看,中国对外贸易较国内整个生产来说更为节约资源和保护环境。再次,本文从对外贸易的环境影响效应与隐含污染两个层面,进一步从实证角度研究分析了中国对外贸易的环境污染问题。在前一个层面即对外贸易的环境影响效应上,本文分别基于时间序列数据和省际面板数据进行了实证分析。研究证实了中国对外贸易发展与污染排放间存在长期稳定的协整关系,并将中国对外贸易的环境效应分解为规模、结构、开放和技术四类效应,逐一进行了分解分析。规模效应方面,中国对外贸易的发展促进了经济增长,客观上也增加了污染排放,但污染排放达到一定程度后会下降,验证了EKC环境库茨涅茨曲线的存在;结构效应方面,中国资本劳动比的提高一定时期内不断没有使环境污染恶化,反而使得产业结构向更为清洁的方向转化,从而使得污染排放量出现下降;开放效应方面,贸易开放度增加对各地区工业废水有减排、工业废气有增排作用;技术效应方面,技术进步对环境质量改善起到积极作用。在后一个层面即对外贸易隐含污染上,根据投入产出表的类型,依次从单区域竞争型和多区域非竞争型两个角度进行了研究分析。基于单区域竞争型投入产出表角度的研究,分别从总量、行业方面测算了对外贸易中的隐含污染排放,并将隐含污染平衡与生态顺逆差结合起来分析。之后利用SDA方法对影响对外贸易隐含污染排放变动的因素进行了分解。研究表明,中国各部门工业“三废”排放强度都得以明显改善,相应的进出口隐含污染排放量总体均先升后降,表明对外贸易引致的环境污染先恶化后改善。对外贸易在工业废水方面伴随着“生态逆差”从而不利于环境质量改善,而在其他几类污染物方面又伴随着“生态顺差”从而有利于环境质量改善。SDA因素分解发现,无论是出口还是进口,规模效应为正,表明贸易的扩张均是导致进出口隐含污染增排的最主要动因;技术效应为负,表明各行业污染排放系数的改善是抑制进出口隐含污染增排的最重要原因;结构效应对隐含污染排放在不同年份和不同污染指标方面正负作用不定,且该效应的影响程度相对较小。基于多区域非竞争型投入产出表角度的研究,旨在消除传统的总值贸易核算可能存在的高估现象,引入当前国际上前沿的增加值贸易核算体系,以选取WIOD数据库的环境账户表中8种污染气体加总作为污染指标,研究了中国与美国、日本、韩国、台湾地区、德国这五个主要贸易伙伴增加值贸易含污量,并对影响其变化的因素进行了分解研究。研究表明,中国为主要贸易伙伴负担了较大的环境成本,存在明显的“生态逆差”,对主要贸易伙伴增加值出口含污总量均先上升后逐步回落趋稳,同期增加值进口含污量总体呈增长态势。从贸易污染条件方面来看,中国与主要贸易伙伴间的贸易背后承担的环境污染压力较大,但中国单位进出口含污量相对有不断改善的趋势。对主要贸易伙伴进出口净含污量最大的部门,主要有电子和光学设备部门、纺织业与皮革及其制品部门、基本金属和金属制品部门等。单位增加值贸易含污量的SDA分解发现,无论出口还是进口,技术效应全部为负,结构效应带有不确定性,总效应全部为负,表明单位增加值出口和进口的含污量均在不断下降。另外,本文基于对外贸易环境影响效应研究,探讨了开放发展与绿色发展之间的耦合关系,分析了两者之间的耦合基础和耦合传导机制,并从政治经济学角度提出了实现开放发展与绿色发展耦合促进的思路启示。本文认为开放发展与绿色发展两者之间具有鲜明的辩证统一、相辅相成关系,这构成了两者耦合的基础,而国际贸易和国际投资两方面构成了两者耦合的传导机制。要实现开放发展与绿色发展耦合促进,需要在理论前提上实现从“经济人”到“生态人”的假设转变,需要调整规范人与自然的关系实现生产关系与生产力的辩证统一,需要实现生产方式和生活方式的绿色统一。最后,本文归纳了前文研究的基本观点和结论,并就中国减少对外贸易对环境负面影响、实现贸易发展和环境改善的“双赢”等方面提出了相关政策建议。本文认为,应全方位强化绿色发展理念,应长期坚持对外开放基本国策,应加快国内生产消费和对外贸易的绿色转型,应加强环境规制和法律经济手段运用,应继续积极参加有关国际合作。同时,本文对进一步研究进行了展望。
[Abstract]:At present, global climate change and its response to the world's attention. From the L world climate conference held in 1979 to the Paris agreement, which formally entered into force in 2016, the global climate governance has increasingly become the consensus of the international community. With the increasing awareness of human environmental protection, the international trade as an important economic activity and its relationship with the environment From the point of view of China, China has made great progress in economic and social development in the past forty years. However, at the same time, the problem of resources consumption and environmental pollution in China is becoming increasingly prominent, causing great pressure to the domestic ecological environment and demanding more greenhouse gas in the international climate negotiations. China has made unremitting efforts to do so. China has established the "five development concepts" including "green development" and "open development" to guide the national economy and social development of China in the "13th Five-Year" period. To understand the relationship between China's foreign trade and the environment, clear the impact of green development on foreign trade, realize the "win-win" situation of both trade growth, economic development and environmental improvement, which will make China better development and build a community of human destiny on the basis of maintaining its right to be right. On the basis of combing the relevant research results both at home and abroad, this paper has carried out theoretical and empirical research, and analyzed the basic situation of China's foreign trade and environmental pollution and the effect on the environment from different research perspectives and various methods. This paper calculates and studies the hidden pollution of China's foreign trade, and the pollution content of the main trade partners' value added trade, probes into the coupling promotion of "open development" and "green development", and puts forward the pertinent policy suggestions. The main contents and basic conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the article is based on the review of the relevant research. The impact of foreign trade on the environment and its mechanism of action have been rationed. Secondly, the paper collects and collects the basic situation of China's foreign trade and environmental pollution statistics, and examines the relationship between environmental pollution and foreign trade and its changes. From a relative perspective, China's foreign trade is more resources saving and environmental protection than the whole domestic production. Thirdly, this paper studies and analyses China's foreign trade from two aspects of the environmental impact effect and the implied pollution of foreign trade. On the previous level, the environmental impact effect of foreign trade, this paper makes an empirical analysis based on the time series data and the inter provincial panel data respectively. The study confirms the long-term and stable co integration relationship between China's foreign trade development and pollution emission, and decomposes the environmental effect of China's foreign trade into a rule. The four effects of the model, structure, opening and technology are analyzed one by one. In terms of scale effect, the development of China's foreign trade promotes economic growth and increases the emission of pollution objectively, but the pollution emission will decrease to a certain extent, and the existence of the EKC environment and the structure effect of China's capital labor is verified. The increase of the ratio has not worsened the environmental pollution in a certain period of time, but it makes the industrial structure turn to a cleaner direction, thus reducing the emission of pollution; in the open effect, the increase of trade openness will reduce the industrial waste water in various regions, the industrial waste gas has an increase in exhaust, technical effect, the technological progress to the environment Quality improvement plays a positive role. On the latter level, the implied pollution of foreign trade, according to the type of input-output table, is analyzed from two angles of single region competitive and multi regional non competitive. The implicit pollution emission of Yi Zhong is combined with the combination of the implicit pollution balance and the ecological adverse balance. Then the SDA method is used to decompose the factors that affect the changes in the implied pollution of foreign trade. The study shows that the emission intensity of the industrial "three wastes" in China's various sectors can be clearly improved and the corresponding emission of the import and export is implied. The overall level first rises and then decreases, indicating that the environmental pollution caused by foreign trade is first deteriorated and then improved. Foreign trade is accompanied by the "ecological deficit" in industrial waste water, which is unfavorable to the improvement of the environmental quality, while the other kinds of pollutants are accompanied by the "ecological surplus", which is beneficial to the environmental quality improvement.SDA factor decomposition discovery, It is the export or import, and the scale effect is positive, which indicates that the expansion of trade is the most important cause of the increase of implied pollution in the import and export. The technical effect is negative, which indicates that the improvement of the pollution emission coefficient of each industry is the most important reason to restrain the increase of the implied pollution in the import and export. On the basis of the multi region non competitive input-output table angle, the aim of the study is to eliminate the possible overvaluation of the traditional gross trade accounting, and introduce the current international front-end value added trade accounting system, in order to select the environmental account table of the WIOD database 8. The pollution of the five major trade partners of China and the United States, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Germany, and Germany, and the factors affecting its change are studied. The study shows that China has a large environmental cost for the major trading partners, and there is an obvious "ecology". In terms of trade pollution conditions, the environmental pollution pressure behind China's trade with the major trading partners is larger, but the amount of pollution in China is relatively large. The sector with the largest net pollution content in import and export of major trading partners, mainly electronic and optical equipment departments, textile and leather and its products departments, basic metal and metal products departments, and so on. The SDA decomposition of pollution content in unit added value trade found that both export and import, all the technical effects were negative, structural effect In addition, the coupling relationship between open development and green development is discussed based on the study of the effect of foreign trade environment, and the coupling basis and coupling transmission mechanism between the two are analyzed. This paper holds that open development and green development have a distinct dialectical unity and complementary relationship between the open development and the green development, which constitutes the basis of the two coupling, and the two aspects of international trade and international investment constitute the transmission mechanism of the two coupling. The coupling between the open development and the green development needs to realize the hypothesis change from "economic man" to "eco man" on the basis of theory. It needs to adjust the dialectical unity of the relationship between people and nature and realize the dialectical unity of production relations and productive forces. It needs to realize the green unification of the mode of production and the way of life. Finally, the paper summarizes the previous research. The basic views and conclusions put forward relevant policy suggestions on the reduction of the negative environmental impact of China's foreign trade on the environment and the "win-win" of trade development and environmental improvement. This article holds that the concept of green development should be strengthened in all directions and the basic national policy of opening to the outside world should be persisted for a long time and the domestic production and foreign trade should be accelerated. We should strengthen environmental regulation and use of legal and economic means. We should continue to actively participate in relevant international cooperation. At the same time, further research is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F752
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本文编号：1978550