美国主导的TISA及其服务贸易影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-14 16:29

本文选题：服务贸易协定 + 美国　；参考：《湘潭大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,通过多边谈判达成的服务贸易进一步自由化成果甚少,部分国家都已将服务贸易多边谈判宣判“死刑”,为降低谈判难度,早日享受谈判成果,区域贸易合作成为各国首选的谈判形式。2012年初,由美国等为主导国,16个世贸组织成员国组成的“服务业挚友”集团成功发起了《服务贸易协定》(TISA)谈判。目前该谈判正在美国的主导下有序进行。美国凭借着其服务贸易强大优势和历来掌控国际贸易投资规则的能力对谈判进程、规则纪律确立、市场准入承诺等方面实施控制。通过对美国的服务贸易竞争力指标分析,其国际市场占有率达14%;近年来的TC指数均大于零;RCA指数在TISA所有成员中也处于较高位置,这一系列指标都显示美国在服务贸易领域拥有强大的竞争优势。这也正是美国积极倡导服务贸易进一步自由化的原因。根据最新谈判情况,TISA中大部分议题都是由美国提出。在规则与纪律方面:对GATS中的国内监管和透明度规则进行了强化,还针对21世纪服务贸易新问题提出了自己的主张。如对于跨境数据流问题,美国希望个人和金融数据不受限制的交换;就国有企业保护问题,美国希望TISA中引入“竞争中立”规则;而在强制地方化问题上,美国要求各国针对跨国服务公司制定的法律法规不仅要规范而且要透明。在市场准入方面:美国提出TISA要囊括所有服务部门,采用负面清单的减让表形式,并且引进棘轮条款和冻结条款。美国在TISA中提出如此多的高标准新议题,究竟能否给他带来收益?本文以服务贸易开放度、人均GDP、货物贸易额等为解释变量,应用引力模型对美国的服务贸易出口额做回归分析,检验结果表明服务贸易开放度对美国服务贸易具有较好的正向促进作用。并利用模拟的“理论值”测算出美国对TISA谈判的其他成员仍有强大的服务贸易出口潜力。另外,还针对服务贸易出口额增加所带来的一系列连锁效应进行了分析,如:有利于缓解就业压力、带动GDP的增加等。同时各国贸易更加频繁,信息沟通更加顺畅,能够实现FDI的有效增加和技术的有效转移。无论TISA谈判最终成果如何,其都是一个新的开始。中国政府已提出加入,而美国仍对中国的加入持“纠结”态度,中国政府应作出进一步的努力,争取早日坐上谈判桌,表达自己诉求。同时中国服务业企业也要做好参与激烈竞争的准备,趋利避害,谋求有利位置。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there have been very few achievements in the further liberalization of trade in services reached through multilateral negotiations. Some countries have pronounced the "death penalty" on multilateral negotiations on trade in services. In order to reduce the difficulty of negotiations and enjoy the results of negotiations at an early date, Regional trade cooperation has become the preferred negotiation form in various countries. In early 2012, the "best friend" group of 16 WTO members, led by the United States and other countries, successfully launched the "Agreement on Trade in Services" negotiations. The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly manner under the leadership of the United States. By virtue of its strong advantage in trade in services and its ability to control the rules of international trade and investment, the United States controls the negotiation process, the establishment of rules and disciplines, the commitment to market access, and so on. By analyzing the competitiveness index of US trade in services, its international market share has reached 14%. In recent years, the TC index is larger than the zero RCA index, and the RCA index is also in a higher position among all the members of TISA. This series of indicators show that the United States has a strong competitive advantage in trade in services. This is why the United States actively advocates further liberalization of trade in services. Most of the issues in TISA are proposed by the United States, according to the latest negotiations. In the aspect of rules and disciplines, this paper strengthens the domestic regulation and transparency rules in GATS, and puts forward its own views on the new problems of service trade in the 21st century. For example, in the case of cross-border data flows, the United States wants unrestricted exchange of personal and financial data; regarding the protection of state-owned enterprises, the United States wants to introduce "competition in the" rules in TISA; and, in the case of compulsory localization, The United States requires laws and regulations for multinational service companies to be not only regulated but also transparent. In terms of market access: the United States proposed TISA to cover all service sectors in the form of a negative list of concessions and the introduction of ratchet and freeze clauses. Can the United States bring him benefits by raising so many new issues of high standards in TISA? Based on the open degree of service trade, per capita GDP, trade volume of goods and so on, this paper applies the gravity model to make regression analysis on the export value of service trade in the United States. The results show that the openness of service trade has a positive effect on American service trade. The simulated "theoretical value" is used to estimate that the United States still has strong export potential to other members of TISA negotiations. In addition, a series of chain effects caused by the increase of export value of trade in services are analyzed, such as: it can relieve the pressure of employment and promote the increase of GDP and so on. At the same time, more frequent trade, more smooth communication of information, can achieve the effective increase of FDI and the effective transfer of technology. Whatever the final outcome of the TISA negotiations, it is a new beginning. The Chinese Government has proposed to join, while the United States still has a "tangled" attitude towards China's entry. The Chinese Government should make further efforts to get to the negotiating table at an early date and express its aspirations. At the same time, Chinese service enterprises should also be prepared to participate in fierce competition, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and seek a favorable position.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F746.18

【相似文献】