辽宁省对外贸易对就业的效应分析

发布时间：2018-06-26 09:33

本文选题：对外贸易 + 就业　；参考：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前,伴随着经济全球化的迅猛发展,辽宁省依据有利的地理位置,在对外贸易上取得了显著的收益。辽宁省的对外贸易基本上呈持续增长得势态。在2015年,对外贸易总值达到960.8亿美元,出口总值达508.4亿美元,进口总值达452.4亿美元。贸易总额较1992年相比增长约13倍,增速迅猛,辽宁省进出口贸易实力显著增强。投资与贸易一体化的快速融合给其带来巨大的发展机会,贸易不仅为经济的发展做出贡献,也在一定程度上促进了就业。辽宁省的就业量从1992年的1957.8万人增长到2015年的2409.9万人,约20年左右,就业总人数增长了452.1万人。但是,辽宁省的失业问题仍然严峻,每年增加的就业总人数很少,并且每年增加的幅度也是不确定的,近20多年来,辽宁省的就业增长率不是很高,年就业增长率基本上是小于2%的,且2015年的就业增长率为负增长。就业,人民生存的根本,亦是一国进行宏观调控的关键,所以,探究贸易对就业总量的影响能改进外贸政策,从而在广度和深度上提升对外贸易的水平,从而在一定程度上增加就业量,推动辽宁省经济迈上一个新平台。本文将对辽宁省1992-2015年的对外贸易对就业的影响进行研究。本文先对有关贸易与就业二者关系的基本理论进行归纳整理,然后对国内外的文献进行分析,并在对文献进行分析的前提下,提出了本文研究的出发点。继而,运用大量的数据与图表,全面直观地分析辽宁省的对外贸易基本情况,并从贸易规模、贸易主体、依存度,贸易结构等方面深入的分析辽宁省对外贸易所存在的问题,此外,分别从就业数量、就业结构的角度呈现辽宁省就业的基本情况,然后,根据国际贸易理论,分析了贸易影响就业的传导路径,分别从贸易对就业的总体影响和对结构上的影响两方面进行探讨,本文的重点,也就文章的第四章节,进行实证分析来研究贸易的就业效应,即运用Eviews软件对贸易与就业进行计量分析,实证检验进口,出口与就业二者之间的具体联系,得出结论。最后,根据相关的研究结论,本文提出一些建议。
[Abstract]:At present, with the rapid development of economic globalization, Liaoning Province has made remarkable gains in foreign trade according to its favorable geographical position. The foreign trade of Liaoning Province is in a state of sustained growth. In 2015, foreign trade totaled $96.08 billion, exports $50.84 billion and imports $45.24 billion. The total trade volume was 13 times higher than that in 1992, and the import and export trade strength of Liaoning Province increased significantly. The rapid integration of investment and trade brings great opportunities for its development. Trade not only contributes to the development of economy, but also promotes employment to a certain extent. The employment of Liaoning Province increased from 19.578 million in 1992 to 24.099 million in 2015, about 20 years, the total number of employment increased by 4.521 million. However, the unemployment problem in Liaoning Province is still severe. The total number of people who increase employment every year is very small, and the annual increase rate is also uncertain. In the last 20 years, the growth rate of employment in Liaoning Province has not been very high. The annual employment growth rate is basically less than 2%, and the employment growth rate is negative in 2015. Employment, the root of people's survival, is also the key to a country's macroeconomic regulation and control. Therefore, exploring the impact of trade on total employment can improve foreign trade policies, thereby raising the level of foreign trade in scope and depth. Thus, to a certain extent, increase employment, promote Liaoning Province economy on a new platform. This paper will study the effects of foreign trade on employment in Liaoning Province from 1992 to 2015. This paper first summarizes the basic theory of the relationship between trade and employment, then analyzes the literature at home and abroad, and on the premise of analyzing the literature, puts forward the starting point of this study. Then, using a large number of data and charts, the basic situation of foreign trade in Liaoning Province is analyzed completely and intuitively, and the problems existing in foreign trade of Liaoning Province are deeply analyzed from the aspects of trade scale, main body of trade, degree of dependence, trade structure, etc. In addition, the basic situation of employment in Liaoning Province is presented from the angles of employment quantity and employment structure respectively. Then, according to the international trade theory, the transmission path of trade affecting employment is analyzed. Respectively from the overall impact of trade on employment and the impact on the structure of two aspects, the focus of this paper, also on the fourth chapter of the article, empirical analysis to study the employment effect of trade, This paper uses Eviews software to analyze trade and employment empirically to test the specific relationship between import, export and employment, and draw a conclusion. Finally, according to the relevant research conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.8;F249.27

【参考文献】