社会性学习、显著性竞争和羊群效应

发布时间：2018-06-29 15:13

本文选题：社会性学习 + 有限理性　；参考：《南京大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文考察了在消费者进行"口口相传"的社会性学习方式下市场当中的"羊群效应"。本文假设经济中有大量的永远存活的消费者并且将其表示为一个单位为一的连续统一体。消费者是有限理性的,并在每个时期面对两个公司提供的两种商品并进行选择。我们假设在选择时她不会完全考虑其所能获得的信息,而是通过与有限个"朋友"交流来获取和加总信息,也即"口口相传"的社会性学习。其交流和学习的具体方式为选取一个样本容量并按照这个样本容量在经济体中抽取消费者了解他们消费某种商品所获得的平均效用,并做出选择。公司在进入市场后选定自己的长期显著性水平展开竞争,吸引竞争对手的客户。本文考察了在这个环境下市场份额在长期的演变情况。本文研究发现,公司在均衡时选择的显著性水平在消费者交流较少的条件下能够在市场中造成"羊群效应",使得所有消费者在长期都选择同一种商品。另外,如果产品质量较好的公司在进入市场时拥有很少的市场份额,只要其质量足够好,通过显著性水平的竞争在消费者某些抽样水平下市场最终会出现有效率的"羊群效应",即所有的消费者都选择质量较好的产品。本文还计算了社会最优的显著性水平和抽样水平。社会最优的结果表明在较低的交流水平下,市场能够收敛到有效的状态。这带给我们的政策启示是:如果想要避免市场在长期被质量较差的产品占领(无效率情况),那么教育消费者在做购买决策时进行适当的交流是有益的。这样虽然在长期可能达不到最有效的状态,但是能够保持市场的多样性。
[Abstract]:This paper examines the herding effect in the market under the social learning mode of "oral transmission" by consumers. This paper assumes that there are a large number of perpetual consumers in the economy and represents it as a continuum of units. Consumers are bounded, and at each stage face and choose between the two products offered by the two companies. We assume that when she chooses, she does not fully consider the information she can obtain, but rather acquires and adds information through communication with a limited number of "friends", that is, the social learning of "mouth to mouth". The specific way to communicate and learn is to select a sample size and take consumers in the economy according to that sample size to understand the average utility of a commodity they consume and make a choice. After entering the market, the company chooses its own long-term significance level to compete, attracts the competitor's customer. This paper examines the long-term evolution of market share in this environment. In this paper, it is found that the significant level of company selection in equilibrium can cause "herding effect" in the market under the condition of less consumer communication, which makes all consumers choose the same commodity in the long run. In addition, if a company with better product quality has a small market share at the time of entering the market, as long as its quality is good enough, Through the competition of significant level, under some sampling level of consumers, there will be an efficient "herd effect" in the market, that is, all consumers will choose the products of better quality. The significance level and sampling level of social optimum are also calculated. Social optimal results show that the market converges to an efficient state at a low level of communication. The policy implication is that it is useful to educate consumers to communicate properly when making purchase decisions if they want to avoid the market being occupied by poor quality products for a long time (inefficiency). This may not be the most effective in the long run, but it can maintain market diversity.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F713.55;F274

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