美国对进口中国钢铁类制成品反倾销的贸易转移效应研究
发布时间：2018-08-05 14:03
【摘要】：随着中国已经成为美国进口商品的主要来源国,两国间贸易摩擦此起彼伏,美国针对我国的反倾销调查一直没有中断过。如今全球贸易自由化的推进,美国钢铁制造业改变了单纯依赖关税保护模式,转而寻求反倾销干预进口竞争,中国钢铁类制成品进入美国市场常常成为其主要的反倾销对象。本文在分析美国针对进口中国钢铁类制品HS73反倾销案例的基础上,使用Prusa模型回归估计了美国反倾销对中国钢铁类制成品进口值、价格、数量的影响,发现反倾销中的中国商品遭受两个不同的后果,一是完全退出市场,二是继续增加对美国的出口。经过分离出那些被反倾销行为迫离市场的商品,进一步运用Armington模型回归分析了美国进口中国商品与其他样本国商品之间的互动关系,发现如果中国商品被反倾销迫退市场,那么美国就会贸易转移增加加拿大、墨西哥、以及我国台湾地区的同类商品进口进行替代。本文的内容结构大致分为五部分:第一章,概括问题研究背景和意义;第二章,将就倾销与反倾销的进行理论界定,并就贸易转移现象进行表述,从而做好分析框架的理论铺垫;第三章中将,给出选取的Prusa和Armington模型理由;第四章进行实证分析,运用Prusa的模型回归估计解释样本与被解释样本之间的关系,逻辑地引致使用Armington的模型进一步估计出反倾销所导致的贸易转移效应程度。第五章的结论部分,就我国今后对美钢铁类制品出口贸易的发展以及应对美方贸易政策干预提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:As China has become the main source of American imports and trade frictions between the two countries have been incessant, the U.S. anti-dumping investigation against China has not been interrupted. With the development of global trade liberalization, American iron and steel manufacturing industry has changed its mode of relying solely on tariff protection and turned to seek anti-dumping to intervene in import competition. Chinese steel manufactures entering the United States market are often the main antidumping objects. Based on the analysis of HS73 anti-dumping cases of Chinese steel products imported by the United States, this paper estimates the value, price and quantity of imports of Chinese steel manufactured goods by Prusa model regression. It is found that Chinese goods in anti-dumping suffer two different consequences, one is to withdraw completely from the market, the other is to continue to increase exports to the United States. After separating the goods forced out of the market by anti-dumping actions, we further use the Armington model to analyze the interaction between American imports of Chinese goods and other sample countries, and find that if Chinese goods are forced out of the market by anti-dumping, Then the United States will shift trade to increase imports of similar goods from Canada, Mexico, and Taiwan. The content structure of this paper is divided into five parts: the first chapter, the background and significance of the research, the second chapter, the theoretical definition of dumping and anti-dumping, and the expression of the phenomenon of trade transfer. In the third chapter, the reasons of choosing Prusa and Armington models are given. In chapter 4, the empirical analysis is carried out, and the relationship between the sample and the explained sample is estimated by using the model regression of Prusa. The model that logically leads to the use of Armington further estimates the extent of trade transfer effects caused by anti-dumping. In the fifth chapter, the author puts forward some policy suggestions on the development of China's export trade in steel products to the United States in the future and the intervention of American trade policy.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F416.31;F757.12
本文编号：2166015
[Abstract]:As China has become the main source of American imports and trade frictions between the two countries have been incessant, the U.S. anti-dumping investigation against China has not been interrupted. With the development of global trade liberalization, American iron and steel manufacturing industry has changed its mode of relying solely on tariff protection and turned to seek anti-dumping to intervene in import competition. Chinese steel manufactures entering the United States market are often the main antidumping objects. Based on the analysis of HS73 anti-dumping cases of Chinese steel products imported by the United States, this paper estimates the value, price and quantity of imports of Chinese steel manufactured goods by Prusa model regression. It is found that Chinese goods in anti-dumping suffer two different consequences, one is to withdraw completely from the market, the other is to continue to increase exports to the United States. After separating the goods forced out of the market by anti-dumping actions, we further use the Armington model to analyze the interaction between American imports of Chinese goods and other sample countries, and find that if Chinese goods are forced out of the market by anti-dumping, Then the United States will shift trade to increase imports of similar goods from Canada, Mexico, and Taiwan. The content structure of this paper is divided into five parts: the first chapter, the background and significance of the research, the second chapter, the theoretical definition of dumping and anti-dumping, and the expression of the phenomenon of trade transfer. In the third chapter, the reasons of choosing Prusa and Armington models are given. In chapter 4, the empirical analysis is carried out, and the relationship between the sample and the explained sample is estimated by using the model regression of Prusa. The model that logically leads to the use of Armington further estimates the extent of trade transfer effects caused by anti-dumping. In the fifth chapter, the author puts forward some policy suggestions on the development of China's export trade in steel products to the United States in the future and the intervention of American trade policy.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F416.31;F757.12
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 鲍晓华;中国实施反倾销措施的经济效应分析[J];经济纵横;2004年01期
，本文编号：2166015
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