知识要素对我国出口贸易影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-18 13:12

【摘要】：21世纪以来,人类已经进入了以知识为主要生产要素的“知识经济”时代。知识经济给国际贸易带来了重大变革,知识密集型产品和服务的贸易比重逐年增大,知识要素已经成为各国取得国际贸易比较优势的重要因素。2015年我国货物出口贸易额蝉联世界第一,但是知识密集型产品和服务的出口贸易,相对美国等发达国家处于劣势地位。在该背景下,研究知识要素对我国出口贸易的影响,对我国出口贸易规模的扩张和出口贸易结构的优化具有一定的指导意义。本文在总结知识与贸易相关的国内外研究成果和经典理论的基础上,结合定性和定量的分析方法,围绕知识要素对我国出口贸易的影响进行了研究。本文从定性角度探讨了知识要素的内涵和知识“租金”的具体表现形式以及知识要素对出口贸易的影响机理,并对我国知识水平和出口贸易现状进行了描述。本文采用主成分分析方法确定指标的权重,计算出了我国1994-2015年历年的知识指数;然后将知识指数和我国出口贸易的有关数据进行了平稳性、协整和Granger因果检验,结果表明:知识要素与我国出口贸易之间存在着长期均衡关系,并且知识要素是我国货物出口贸易结构和出口贸易规模的Granger原因。通过VAR脉冲响应和方差分解分析以及一元线性回归分析得到:知识要素能够显著优化货物出口贸易结构,提高知识密集型产品的出口比重,并促进货物出口贸易与服务出口贸易的规模扩张。最后本文根据知识要素对我国出口贸易影响的实证研究结果,分别从国家层面和企业层面提出了对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 21 st century, mankind has entered the era of knowledge-based economy with knowledge as the main factor of production. Knowledge economy has brought great changes to international trade, and the proportion of knowledge-intensive products and services is increasing year by year. The knowledge factor has become an important factor for countries to obtain the comparative advantage of international trade. In 2015, China's export volume of goods was ranked first in the world, but the export trade of knowledge-intensive products and services was at a disadvantage compared with the developed countries such as the United States. Under this background, the study of the influence of knowledge elements on China's export trade has certain guiding significance for the expansion of China's export trade scale and the optimization of export trade structure. On the basis of summing up the domestic and foreign research results and classical theories of knowledge and trade, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, this paper studies the influence of knowledge elements on China's export trade. From a qualitative point of view, this paper discusses the connotation of knowledge elements and the concrete forms of knowledge "rent" and the influence mechanism of knowledge elements on export trade, and describes the level of knowledge and the current situation of export trade in China. In this paper, the principal component analysis (PCA) method is used to determine the weight of the index, and the knowledge index for the calendar year 1994-2015 is calculated, and then the smoothness, cointegration and Granger causality test of the knowledge index and the relevant data of China's export trade are carried out. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the knowledge elements and China's export trade, and the knowledge elements are the Granger reasons for the structure of China's export trade in goods and the scale of export trade. Through VAR impulse response, variance decomposition analysis and univariate linear regression analysis, it is concluded that knowledge elements can significantly optimize the export structure of goods and increase the export proportion of knowledge-intensive products. And promote the scale expansion of goods export trade and service export trade. Finally, according to the empirical results of the impact of knowledge factors on China's export trade, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the national level and the enterprise level.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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