国外对华磷化工业反倾销税的贸易效应研究
发布时间：2018-09-15 19:58
【摘要】：国际贸易规则重塑的大环境之下，西方发达经济体积极促进贸易区域化发展，新兴经济体经济发展突飞猛进，争夺贸易战略的主导权。在这场无硝烟的战争，中国的对外贸易发展面临着机遇和挑战，对外贸易愈加频繁和扩张，，随之而来的是贸易摩擦和争夺的频频发生。 1995-2013年间，全球共发生4519起反倾销调查案件，而中国遭遇反倾销调查989件，俨然已成为“众矢之的”。涉案产品涉及我国化工、机电、纺织等多个行业，其中，化工行业是遭遇反倾销的“重灾区”，约占总案件数量的22%，磷化工业作为化工行业中重要的分支之一，产品屡屡遭到进口国发起反倾销调查，继而征收高额的反倾销税，行业的发展受到影响，解决该问题成为磷化工业规划中的重要一环。 本文首先对倾销和反倾销相关的文献进行梳理总结，继而从经济学角度分析倾销和反倾销的福利影响，以及征收反倾销税导致的贸易效应。之后，描述性分析国外对华反倾销总体概况和我国磷化工业的发展现状，针对1995-2014年印度、欧盟等11国家（地区）对华磷化工业发起的29件反倾销调查，从国别、产品、案件状态等方面进行比较，以具体反倾销申诉国进出口量、涉案产品市场份额为研究对象，GDP、关税、反倾销税等为影响因子构建面板模型，进行回归分析，得出，进口份额对数的滞后项、GDP值的对数、以及产品的显示性比较指数（RCA）均是影响涉案产品在反倾销市场发起国进口量和市场份额的因素，印度、澳大利亚等国的关税（TAR）虽影响进口量，但实践中，关税逐步降低，对进口量的影响甚微。反倾销调查阶段，印度和阿根廷已发生贸易破坏效应，印度、澳大利亚、欧盟和阿根廷有明显的贸易转向效应，其后征收反倾销税确实同步存在贸易破坏效应和贸易转向效应，然而，由于中国涉案产品在主要涉案国家具有较强的现实性比较优势，削弱了反倾销的贸易救济效果，从而进口量和产品市场份额的减少能够有所弥补。 最后，结合我国磷化工产业特点，从政府、行业和企业角度分别提出相应的政策建议，以期该产业能够做出长期规划，优化产业结构，走出频繁遭遇反倾销的困境。
[Abstract]:Under the environment of reshaping the rules of international trade, the developed western economies actively promote the regional development of trade, while the emerging economies develop by leaps and bounds, and strive for the dominant power of the trade strategy. In this war, China's foreign trade is facing opportunities and challenges. Foreign trade is becoming more frequent and expanding, followed by frequent trade friction and competition. Between 1995 and 2013, There are 4519 anti-dumping cases in the world and 989 anti-dumping investigations in China. The products involved involve many industries, such as chemical industry, electromechanical industry, textile industry and so on. Among them, the chemical industry is a "disaster area" that has been hit by anti-dumping, accounting for about 22% of the total number of cases. The phosphating industry is one of the important branches of the chemical industry. The products are frequently subject to anti-dumping investigations by importing countries, and then high anti-dumping duties are levied. The development of the industry is affected, so solving this problem has become an important part in the phosphating industry planning. This paper firstly summarizes the relevant literatures of dumping and antidumping, and then analyzes the welfare effects of dumping and anti-dumping from the angle of economics, as well as the trade effects caused by anti-dumping duties. After that, the general situation of foreign anti-dumping against China and the development status of China's phosphating industry are analyzed, and 29 anti-dumping investigations against China's phosphating industry initiated by 11 countries (regions), such as India and the European Union, from 1995 to 2014, from country to country and product, are analyzed. Comparing the case status and other aspects, taking the specific anti-dumping countries' import and export volume, the market share of the products involved as the object of study, such as GDP, tariff, anti-dumping duty and so on, the panel model is constructed, and the regression analysis is carried out. The logarithm of import share and the comparative index of (RCA) are the factors that influence the import quantity and market share of the products involved in the anti-dumping market. Although the tariff (TAR) of Australia and other countries affect the import quantity, in practice, the tariff gradually decreases and has little effect on the import quantity. At the stage of anti-dumping investigation, India and Argentina have already had trade destructive effects. India, Australia, the European Union and Argentina have obvious trade diversion effects. However, because Chinese products involved in the case have a strong realistic comparative advantage in the major countries involved, it weakens the effect of anti-dumping trade relief, thus the reduction of import volume and product market share can make up for it. Finally, according to the characteristics of phosphorus chemical industry in China, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward from the angle of government, industry and enterprise respectively, in the hope that the industry can make long-term planning, optimize the industrial structure, and get out of the dilemma of frequently encountered anti-dumping.
【学位授予单位】：上海海关学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F741.2;F416.7
本文编号：2244355
[Abstract]:Under the environment of reshaping the rules of international trade, the developed western economies actively promote the regional development of trade, while the emerging economies develop by leaps and bounds, and strive for the dominant power of the trade strategy. In this war, China's foreign trade is facing opportunities and challenges. Foreign trade is becoming more frequent and expanding, followed by frequent trade friction and competition. Between 1995 and 2013, There are 4519 anti-dumping cases in the world and 989 anti-dumping investigations in China. The products involved involve many industries, such as chemical industry, electromechanical industry, textile industry and so on. Among them, the chemical industry is a "disaster area" that has been hit by anti-dumping, accounting for about 22% of the total number of cases. The phosphating industry is one of the important branches of the chemical industry. The products are frequently subject to anti-dumping investigations by importing countries, and then high anti-dumping duties are levied. The development of the industry is affected, so solving this problem has become an important part in the phosphating industry planning. This paper firstly summarizes the relevant literatures of dumping and antidumping, and then analyzes the welfare effects of dumping and anti-dumping from the angle of economics, as well as the trade effects caused by anti-dumping duties. After that, the general situation of foreign anti-dumping against China and the development status of China's phosphating industry are analyzed, and 29 anti-dumping investigations against China's phosphating industry initiated by 11 countries (regions), such as India and the European Union, from 1995 to 2014, from country to country and product, are analyzed. Comparing the case status and other aspects, taking the specific anti-dumping countries' import and export volume, the market share of the products involved as the object of study, such as GDP, tariff, anti-dumping duty and so on, the panel model is constructed, and the regression analysis is carried out. The logarithm of import share and the comparative index of (RCA) are the factors that influence the import quantity and market share of the products involved in the anti-dumping market. Although the tariff (TAR) of Australia and other countries affect the import quantity, in practice, the tariff gradually decreases and has little effect on the import quantity. At the stage of anti-dumping investigation, India and Argentina have already had trade destructive effects. India, Australia, the European Union and Argentina have obvious trade diversion effects. However, because Chinese products involved in the case have a strong realistic comparative advantage in the major countries involved, it weakens the effect of anti-dumping trade relief, thus the reduction of import volume and product market share can make up for it. Finally, according to the characteristics of phosphorus chemical industry in China, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward from the angle of government, industry and enterprise respectively, in the hope that the industry can make long-term planning, optimize the industrial structure, and get out of the dilemma of frequently encountered anti-dumping.
【学位授予单位】：上海海关学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F741.2;F416.7
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