海阳烟草1532直营店项目投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-10-04 18:18

【摘要】：众所周知,项目投资风险评价与项目的投资成败息息相关,海阳烟草1532直营店项目亦不例外。本文在这样的背景下,以“海阳烟草1532直营店项目投资风险评价研究”为题展开讨论,是具有重要的理论意义和现实意义的。本文的研究目的主要是实现对海阳烟草1532直营店项目投资风险进行分析和控制。其中,风险分析包含风险识别和风险评价,风险识别是指把海阳烟草1532直营店项目有可能面临的投资风险因素找出来,风险评价是通过度量,确定已找出的投资风险的风险水平；风险控制是依据前两步的结果,提出解决海阳烟草1532直营店项目投资风险的对策和建议。本文的研究方法主要有以下两种：一种是,理论研究与实地调研相结合的研究方法,即参阅大量的国内外相关的文献和资料,从中总结出当前的学者对投资风险管理问题的研究观点和程度,为本项目的研究提供风险管理的理论支持和方法上的借鉴,通过去实地调查,能获得最真实最有效的资料；另一种是,定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法,通过对投资项目面临的风险的定性分析,利用层次分析方法、模糊综合评价法、主成分分析法对海阳烟草1532直营店项目的投资风险进行分析,构建该项目的评价指标体系和评价模型,并给出评价结果和对策建议。归结起来,本文的研究框架可以概括为：绪论(选题依据和背景、国内外研究现状综述、研究内容与方法、论文框架与创新点)→项目投资风险管理的理论基础与研究方法(项目投资风险管理基本内容、项目投资风险管理的一般流程、项目投资风险评价的常用方法)→海阳烟草1532直营店项目介绍(项目概况、项目背景、项目进度和投资情况、项目内外部环境分析)→海阳烟草1532直营店项目投资风险识别(项目投资风险识别的原则与方法、项目投资风险的影响因素、项目投资风险识别的过程与结果)→海阳烟草1532直营店项目投资风险评估(海阳烟草1532直营店项目投资风险模糊评价、海阳烟草1532直营店项目投资风险单因素评价、海阳烟草1532直营店项目投资风险综合评价)→海阳烟草1 532直营店项目投资风险控制建议(风险应对措施、风险监控措施)→结束语。本文的大致内容为七大部分。本文的创新之处在于采用案例分析法,着重针对海阳烟草1532直营店项目进行投资风险评价研究,探讨在建立全面可靠的风险评价指标体系和选择科学、有效、简洁的评价方法的基础上,为1532直营店项目投资提供借鉴,降低投资风险,并作为今后类似研究的基础。最终,笔者希望通过该项目正式投产以后产生的财务报表中的数据进行进一步分析,完善本文利用预估的财务数据得出的结论,最终实现对海阳烟草1532直营店项目风险的实际控制和规避。
[Abstract]:As we all know, the project investment risk evaluation is closely related to the success or failure of the project investment, Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store project is no exception. Under this background, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the investment risk evaluation of Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and control the investment risk of Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project. Among them, risk analysis includes risk identification and risk evaluation. Risk identification refers to finding out the investment risk factors likely to be faced by Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project, and risk evaluation is measured. The risk control is based on the results of the first two steps and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to solve the investment risk of Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project. The main research methods of this paper are as follows: one is the research method which combines theoretical research with field research, that is, referring to a large number of relevant literature and materials at home and abroad. From the summary of the current scholars on investment risk management research point of view and degree, for the study of this project to provide theoretical support and methods of risk management reference, through field investigation, can obtain the most real and most effective information; The other is the research method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, through the qualitative analysis of the risks faced by investment projects, the use of AHP method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Principal component Analysis (PCA) is used to analyze the investment risk of Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project. The evaluation index system and evaluation model of the project are constructed, and the evaluation results and suggestions are given. To sum up, the research framework of this paper can be summarized as follows: introduction (basis and background of topic selection, review of domestic and foreign research status, research contents and methods), The theoretical basis and research methods of project investment risk management (the basic contents of project investment risk management, the general process of project investment risk management), Introduction to the Project of Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store (Project profile, Project background, Project schedule and Investment, etc.) Internal and external environment analysis of the project) Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store project investment risk identification (project investment risk identification principles and methods, project investment risk factors, The process and result of project investment risk identification) Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project Investment risk Assessment (Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project Investment risk Fuzzy Evaluation, Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project Investment risk single Factor Evaluation, Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project Investment risk Assessment, Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project Investment risk Assessment, Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project Investment risk Fuzzy Evaluation, Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project Investment risk Evaluation, Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project Investment risk Comprehensive Evaluation) Haiyang Tobacco 1 532 Direct Store Project Investment risk Control suggestion (risk response measures, risk monitoring measures) conclusion. The main contents of this paper are seven parts. The innovation of this paper lies in adopting the case analysis method, focusing on the investment risk evaluation research for Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store Project, and discussing the effectiveness of establishing a comprehensive and reliable index system of risk evaluation and selecting science. On the basis of the simple evaluation method, this paper provides a reference for the investment of the 1532 direct store project, reduces the investment risk, and serves as the basis for similar research in the future. Finally, the author hopes to further analyze the data in the financial statements after the project is formally put into production, and perfect the conclusion of this paper by using the estimated financial data. Finally, the actual control and avoidance of the project risk of Haiyang Tobacco 1532 Direct Store is realized.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F721

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