21世纪以来越南对中国长期贸易逆差的成因及影响—越南的视角

发布时间：2018-10-31 07:03

【摘要】：世界和区域经济一体化是发展中国家的客观和必然的趋势,让各国之间的经贸关系日益密切。因此,经济对外政策被越南政府视为是经济发展战略的一个重要问题,尤其是与大国中国的双边关系。随着20世纪以来中越两国外交关系的发展,贸易关系也不断增长,满足越南生产和消费的需求,对促进越南经济猛烈增长有着显著的作用。但随着两国贸易的增长,越中贸易赤字也逐渐明显,而越南也经常处于贸易逆差状态。该问题在一定程度上会阻碍甚至危害到越中贸易关系的稳定发展。所以,越南对中国长期贸易逆差问题已经吸引了越南国内众多学者以及越南政府的关注。因此,研究该问题,并找出解决措施带着重大的意义。据越南海关总局统计,近年来,越南对中国的贸易赤字日趋严重,这让越南经济在很大程度上过于依赖中国,从而失去主动位置,对宏观经济平衡状态和经济的可持续发展有着显著消极的影响。贸易逆差不仅对越南有消极的影响,而且对处于顺差地位的中国也有一定的负面影响。为了全面概述了解越中贸易逆差问题,本文主要采取2000-2016年越中两国的经贸指数、GDP指数、投资合作等方面的数据进行对比、对照,分析两国之间贸易实力的互相影响。通过研究,笔者认为要解决越中两国之间的贸易赤字问题,不能只依赖逆差方的越南单方面的努力,这需要两国的努力合作才能彻底解决。所以在促进两国贸易发展的同时,中国政府应当对推动越南商品在中国国内的销售作出一些引导、鼓励,提高越南对中国的出口幅度。另外,中方也要支持中国企业赴越投资兴业,也为越南企业来华开拓市场创造更便利条件。这样不仅能促使两国经贸合作迅速发展,而且对双方今后贸易关系不平衡问题的解决也会起到一定的作用。总之中越两国间的贸易平衡问题只有在双方共同努力下才能妥善解决。
[Abstract]:World and regional economic integration is an objective and inevitable trend of developing countries, which makes the economic and trade relations between countries closer and closer. Therefore, economic foreign policy is regarded by the Vietnamese government as an important issue in economic development strategy, especially bilateral relations with China. With the development of the diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam since the 20th century, the trade relations have been growing constantly. To meet the needs of Vietnam's production and consumption, it has played a significant role in promoting the fierce growth of Vietnam's economy. But with the growth of trade between the two countries, Vietnam and China trade deficit is also gradually clear, and Vietnam is often in a trade deficit. To some extent, this problem will hinder and even endanger the stable development of Vietnam-China trade relations. Therefore, Vietnam's long-term trade deficit with China has attracted the attention of many scholars and the Vietnamese government. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the problem and find out the solution. According to statistics from Vietnam's General Administration of Customs, Vietnam's trade deficit with China has become increasingly serious in recent years, which has left Vietnam's economy heavily dependent on China, thus losing its active position. It has a significant negative effect on the state of macroeconomic balance and the sustainable development of the economy. The trade deficit not only has a negative impact on Vietnam, but also has a negative impact on China, which is in surplus position. In order to understand the trade deficit between Vietnam and China, this paper compares the economic and trade index, GDP index and investment cooperation between Vietnam and China from 2000 to 2016, and analyzes the mutual influence of trade strength between the two countries. Through the research, the author thinks that to solve the trade deficit problem between Vietnam and China, we can not only rely on the unilateral efforts of Vietnam, which needs the cooperation of the two countries to solve the problem. Therefore, while promoting the development of trade between the two countries, the Chinese government should give some guidance to promote the sales of Vietnamese goods in China, encourage and increase the extent of Vietnam's exports to China. In addition, China should also support Chinese enterprises to invest in Vietnam and create more convenient conditions for Vietnamese enterprises to open up markets in China. This will not only promote the rapid development of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries, but also play a certain role in resolving the imbalance of trade relations between the two sides in the future. In short, the issue of trade balance between China and Vietnam can only be properly resolved through joint efforts.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.33

【参考文献】