中日出口商品结构竞争力实证研究：1995~2013
发布时间：2019-06-10 13:57
【摘要】：目前中国已崛起为全球第二大经济体和第一贸易大国。截止到2013年,中国GDP总量达到91,850亿美元,进出口商品总额、出口商品额分别达到41,600亿美元、22,096亿美元,国际市场占有率为11.72%。我国出口商品额从2004年起赶超日本,至2013年已达到日本3倍。从总量上看,中国的全球市场份额远超日本,但并不表明中国的出口商品结构竞争力已强于日本。本文将基于现有的理论框架和出口商品结构竞争力的的评价指标体系,对中日出口商品结构及其竞争力进行深入的分析研究,从而准确、全面地评价中国出口商品结构的竞争力现状。本文旨在对中日出口商品结构竞争力进行综合评价,评价指标体系的构建与分析模型的选择是关键。本文先通过国际市场占有率、出口依存度对中日出口贸易进行整体比较,然后把出口商品在SITC三位数水平上按Lall技术含量分为十类,使用出口商品结构相似度指数、贸易竞争力指数、显示性比较优势指数对中日出口商品结构竞争力进行细致研究,最后使用主成分分析模型对中日十类出口商品竞争力做出综合评价。对中日出口商品相似度指数的测算结果表明,两国出口商品结构相似度在2008年之前趋于上升。2008年全球金融危机爆发后,两国出口商品加速分化,出口商品结构相似度不断下降；通过主成分分析模型实证研究发现,中日初级产品(PP)综合竞争力都较差,但日本初级产品综合竞争力已超过中国；中国的农业类资源型产品(RB1)综合竞争力也有被日本赶超的势头,日本其他资源型产品(RB2)综合竞争力一直强于中国,2013年被中国略微赶超；日本低技术含量产品(LT1、LT2)综合竞争力仍远远落后于中国,但出现上升势头；中国各类中技术含量产品(MT1、MT2、MT3)的综合竞争力均弱于日本,其中自动化设备(MT1)与日本差距最为悬殊；中国电子和电力产品(HT1)综合竞争力已后来居上,远超日本。中国其他高技术含量产品(HT2)综合竞争力落后于日本,但日本该类产品也缺乏竞争力。基于以上实证分析结果,并结合相关经济理论及日本在出口商品结构升级过程中的经验教训,本文提出以下提升我国出口商品结构竞争力的政策建议：建立鼓励创新的制度安排,从立法、税收、财政补贴等方面对以企业为主体的研发活动尤其是基础研究给予支持；进行中高端人才培养的顶层设计,充分利用财政资金和各种社会资源发展职业教育,为深化校企合作、产教融合创造有利条件,打通高端人才培养机制；大力推动金融市场改革和多层次资本市场建设,为支持创新的风险投资发展提供土壤,建立起金融支持产业结构转型和出口商品结构升级的良性机制。
[Abstract]:At present, China has emerged as the world's second largest economy and largest trading power. By 2013, China's total GDP had reached US $9.185 trillion, and its total import and export commodities had reached US $4.16 trillion and US $2.2096 trillion respectively, with an international market share of 11.72 percent. China's export volume has overtaken Japan since 2004 and has reached three times as much as Japan in 2013. In total, China's global market share far exceeds that of Japan, but it does not mean that China's export structure is already more competitive than Japan. Based on the existing theoretical framework and the evaluation index system of the competitiveness of export commodity structure, this paper will carry on the thorough analysis and research to the export commodity structure and its competitiveness of China and Japan, so as to be accurate. A comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of China's export commodity structure. The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively evaluate the structural competitiveness of export commodities between China and Japan, and the construction of evaluation index system and the selection of analysis model are the key. This paper first compares the export trade between China and Japan through the international market share and the degree of export dependence, and then divides the export commodities into ten categories according to the technical content of Lall at the SITC tridigit level, and uses the similarity index of export commodity structure. The trade competitiveness index and the indicator comparative advantage index are used to study the structural competitiveness of Sino-Japanese export commodities. Finally, the principal component analysis model is used to make a comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of ten kinds of export commodities between China and Japan. The calculation results of the similarity index of export commodities between China and Japan show that the similarity of export commodity structure between the two countries tends to rise before 2008. after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the export commodities of the two countries accelerated their differentiation. The similarity of export commodity structure is decreasing continuously. Through the empirical study of principal component analysis model, it is found that the comprehensive competitiveness of Chinese and Japanese primary products (PP) is poor, but the comprehensive competitiveness of Japanese primary products has exceeded that of China. The comprehensive competitiveness of agricultural resource-based products (RB1) in China has also been overtaken by Japan. The comprehensive competitiveness of other resource-based products (RB2) in Japan has been stronger than that of China, and it was slightly overtaken by China in 2013. The comprehensive competitiveness of Japanese low-tech products (LT1,LT2) still lags far behind that of China, but there is an upward trend. The comprehensive competitiveness of all kinds of technical content products (MT1,MT2,MT3) in China is weaker than that in Japan, among which the gap between automation equipment (MT1) and Japan is the most wide. China's electronics and power products (HT1) comprehensive competitiveness has come from behind, far more than Japan. China's other high-tech products (HT2) lag behind Japan in overall competitiveness, but Japan is also lack of competitiveness. Based on the above empirical analysis results, and combined with the relevant economic theory and Japan's experience and lessons in the process of upgrading the export commodity structure, This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions to enhance the competitiveness of China's export commodity structure: to establish institutional arrangements to encourage innovation, and to support R & D activities, especially basic research, with enterprises as the main body from the aspects of legislation, taxation, financial subsidies and so on; We should carry out the top-level design of the training of middle and high-end talents, make full use of financial funds and various social resources to develop vocational education, create favorable conditions for deepening school-enterprise cooperation and the integration of industry and education, and open up the training mechanism of high-end talents. We will vigorously promote the reform of the financial market and the construction of multi-level capital markets, provide soil for supporting the development of innovative venture capital, and establish a benign mechanism for financial support for the transformation of industrial structure and the upgrading of export commodity structure.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;F753.13
[Abstract]:At present, China has emerged as the world's second largest economy and largest trading power. By 2013, China's total GDP had reached US $9.185 trillion, and its total import and export commodities had reached US $4.16 trillion and US $2.2096 trillion respectively, with an international market share of 11.72 percent. China's export volume has overtaken Japan since 2004 and has reached three times as much as Japan in 2013. In total, China's global market share far exceeds that of Japan, but it does not mean that China's export structure is already more competitive than Japan. Based on the existing theoretical framework and the evaluation index system of the competitiveness of export commodity structure, this paper will carry on the thorough analysis and research to the export commodity structure and its competitiveness of China and Japan, so as to be accurate. A comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of China's export commodity structure. The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively evaluate the structural competitiveness of export commodities between China and Japan, and the construction of evaluation index system and the selection of analysis model are the key. This paper first compares the export trade between China and Japan through the international market share and the degree of export dependence, and then divides the export commodities into ten categories according to the technical content of Lall at the SITC tridigit level, and uses the similarity index of export commodity structure. The trade competitiveness index and the indicator comparative advantage index are used to study the structural competitiveness of Sino-Japanese export commodities. Finally, the principal component analysis model is used to make a comprehensive evaluation of the competitiveness of ten kinds of export commodities between China and Japan. The calculation results of the similarity index of export commodities between China and Japan show that the similarity of export commodity structure between the two countries tends to rise before 2008. after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the export commodities of the two countries accelerated their differentiation. The similarity of export commodity structure is decreasing continuously. Through the empirical study of principal component analysis model, it is found that the comprehensive competitiveness of Chinese and Japanese primary products (PP) is poor, but the comprehensive competitiveness of Japanese primary products has exceeded that of China. The comprehensive competitiveness of agricultural resource-based products (RB1) in China has also been overtaken by Japan. The comprehensive competitiveness of other resource-based products (RB2) in Japan has been stronger than that of China, and it was slightly overtaken by China in 2013. The comprehensive competitiveness of Japanese low-tech products (LT1,LT2) still lags far behind that of China, but there is an upward trend. The comprehensive competitiveness of all kinds of technical content products (MT1,MT2,MT3) in China is weaker than that in Japan, among which the gap between automation equipment (MT1) and Japan is the most wide. China's electronics and power products (HT1) comprehensive competitiveness has come from behind, far more than Japan. China's other high-tech products (HT2) lag behind Japan in overall competitiveness, but Japan is also lack of competitiveness. Based on the above empirical analysis results, and combined with the relevant economic theory and Japan's experience and lessons in the process of upgrading the export commodity structure, This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions to enhance the competitiveness of China's export commodity structure: to establish institutional arrangements to encourage innovation, and to support R & D activities, especially basic research, with enterprises as the main body from the aspects of legislation, taxation, financial subsidies and so on; We should carry out the top-level design of the training of middle and high-end talents, make full use of financial funds and various social resources to develop vocational education, create favorable conditions for deepening school-enterprise cooperation and the integration of industry and education, and open up the training mechanism of high-end talents. We will vigorously promote the reform of the financial market and the construction of multi-level capital markets, provide soil for supporting the development of innovative venture capital, and establish a benign mechanism for financial support for the transformation of industrial structure and the upgrading of export commodity structure.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;F753.13
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