基于风险型混合多属性群决策的特许经营者评价模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 12:35

本文关键词：基于风险型混合多属性群决策的特许经营者评价模型研究　出处：《大连工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：BOT(Build-Operate-Transter)作为公共基础设施项目筹资的一种方式,可以广泛利用私人的资金来弥补政府资金的缺失,同时也可以带来先进的技术和管理,因此在国际上得到了广泛的应用。BOT项目成功的一个关键因素就是能够找到合适的特许经营者,使其不仅能够按时完成任务,并且能够高质量的完成。选取合适的特许经营者关键之处就是找到一个合适的评价方法,能够全面的评价特许经营者。从国内外来看,评价特许经营者主要是从定量指标进行评价,比如特许价格和建设费用等可以量化的指标,以最低价格和最低建设费用为依据选取特许经营者,或者对评价指标统一进行量化处理。很少有能同时考虑以精确实数值评价的定量指标和以模糊语言评价的定性指标信息的集结,以及风险型指标和非风险指标评价信息的集结。这样的评价方法不能充分评价特许经营者,进而导致不能选取到合适的特许经营者,最终可能造成项目的重新谈判甚至失败。基于特许经营者评价的研究现状,本文的研究目的就是通过总结国内外BOT项目和项目承包商的评价标准,使确定的新标准能体现BOT项目的长期性和风险性,并把评价标准分为定量风险型指标、定量非风险型指标、定性风险型指标和定性非风险型指标,从而能够全面客观的评价特许经营者。本文以精确实数值评价定量非风险型指标;以直觉模糊数评价定量风险型指标;以直觉模糊数或模糊语言值评价定性风险型指标和定性非风险型指标,评价其应对风险性和不确定性能力。本文通过建立数学评价模型,把专家的评价融入到模型中,转换不同的评价语言为同一种语言,计算评价矩阵的熵确定评价专家和属性的权重,采用IFWA算子集合各个专家的信息和属性信息,得出特许经营者的评价值,最后计算其到理想解的距离确定最优的特许经营者。评价模型实现了定性评价与定量评价的集结,风险型评价与非风险型评价的集结,不同语言评价的集结以及多个专家评价的集结,使得评价更加客观全面。
[Abstract]:BOT (Build-Operate-Transter) as a way of public infrastructure project financing, lack of extensive use of private funds to make up for government funds, but also can bring advanced technology and management, therefore in the world has been a key factor in the wide application of.BOT project success is to find the right franchise make it not only can complete the task on time, and be able to complete the selection of high quality. The key point of suitable franchisee is to find a suitable evaluation method, comprehensive evaluation to franchise managers. From the domestic and foreign evaluation, the franchisee is mainly evaluated from the quantitative indicators, such as price concession and construction costs can be quantitative indicators, with the lowest price and the lowest cost as the basis for the selection of the concessionaire, or the evaluation indexes for the unity of the volume of treatment. Little can be taken into account in a precise quantitative index and qualitative evaluation to the real value of the fuzzy linguistic evaluation index of information gathering, and build risk index and non risk evaluation information. This evaluation method can fully evaluate the franchisee, which led to the franchisee can not choose appropriate, re negotiation may ultimately result in the project the research status of the concessionaire or even failure. Based on the evaluation, the purpose of this study is to summarize the domestic and foreign BOT projects and project contractor evaluation criteria, long-term and risk of the new standard to determine the BOT project, and the evaluation standards are divided into quantitative risk index, non quantitative risk index. The qualitative indexes and the risk of non risk index, which can evaluate objectively the concessionaire. The precise numerical evaluation of non quantitative risk Type based on intuitionistic fuzzy number evaluation index; quantitative risk index; with intuitionistic fuzzy numbers or fuzzy linguistic evaluation index and qualitative risk assessment risk index, its ability to cope with risk and uncertainty. In this paper, through the establishment of mathematical evaluation model, the expert evaluation into the model, the conversion of different evaluation language is the same language, calculate the evaluation matrix entropy to determine the weight of evaluation experts and attributes, and attribute information of each set of experts using IFWA operator, the franchisee evaluation value, finally calculated the distance to the ideal solution to determine the optimal franchise operators. The evaluation model of qualitative evaluation and quantitative evaluation gathering, risk assessment and non risk evaluation type aggregation of different language evaluation assembly and a plurality of expert evaluation aggregation makes the evaluation more objective and comprehensive.

【学位授予单位】：大连工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283

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