中国产业结构与就业结构变动趋势研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 19:05

本文关键词：中国产业结构与就业结构变动趋势研究　出处：《重庆大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济得到了迅速的发展,产业结构必然随着经济的发展得到升级,产业结构的变动也一定会对就业结构产生影响,最终导致就业所存在的问题日渐突兀,致使国家政府也愈加重视和关注就业难的问题。我国正处于经济转型的关键时期,产业结构与就业结构能否平衡发展关系着我国经济的转型是否成功。通过对我国产业结构与就业结构变动趋势的研究,既能了解我国现阶段产业结构与就业结构的发展趋势以及两者之间多存在的问题,还能避免两者在以后的发展中的问题和矛盾,为两者更好地发展提出相应的意见和对策。本文通过对国内外产业结构与就业结构的相关文献的研究做了相应的文献综述,以配第-克拉克定理、钱纳里-赛尔奎因发展模型理论、霍夫曼定理、刘易斯-费景汉-拉尼斯模型以及托达罗-劳动力流动模型等作为理论依据,结合1978年至2013年我国第一、二、三产业的产值和就业人员数对我国产业结构与就业结构的现状进行了分析,其中第一产业的产值比重和就业比重都持续下降,第二产业产值比重比较稳定以及就业比重略有上升,第三产业的产值比重和就业比重都有所上升,但上升趋势不显著。利用结构偏离度、比较劳动生产率以及就业增长弹性对我国产业结构与就业结构的变迁协调性和变迁效率进行了探讨,发现我国第一产业劳动力过剩,第二产业对劳动力需求有限,第三产业对劳动力有很大的需求,并且第三产业的协调性最好,其次是第二产业,最后是第一产业。同时也对第二、三产业的细分产业在2004年至2012年的产业结构与就业结构进行了分析,其中第二产业中采矿业虽劳动力吸收能力高于平均水平,但在2012年出现了很大的挤出效应;制造业及电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业相对比较稳定;建筑业存在劳动力过剩的现象,但排挤程度逐年减少;第三产业中房地产业以及居民服务业和其他服务业对劳动力的需求最为明显,其次批发零售业、住宿餐饮业、金融业等都有一定的劳动吸收能力,其他行业都需要投入更多资本和技术才能均衡发展。在这基础上,结合我国跟国外几个国家进行了比较分析,得出我国产业结构与就业结构不如发达国家一样是协调发展的,就业结构比产业结构的发展滞后,发达国家的发展经验为我国经济的发展提供了很好的榜样,我们应借鉴这些经验来打破这种局面,同时本文也提出了相应的对策与建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been rapid development, the industrial structure must be upgraded with the development of the economy, the changes in industrial structure will certainly have an impact on the employment structure. Finally, the problems of employment become more and more sudden, and the national government pays more attention to the difficult problem of employment. China is in the critical period of economic transformation. The balanced development of industrial structure and employment structure is related to the success of China's economic transformation. Through the study of the changing trend of industrial structure and employment structure in China. It can not only understand the current development trend of industrial structure and employment structure in China, but also avoid the problems and contradictions between the two in the future development. In order to better the development of both put forward the corresponding suggestions and countermeasures. Through the domestic and foreign industrial structure and employment structure of the relevant literature literature review to match with the Clark theorem. The development model theory of Chanari-Selquine, the Hoffman theorem, the Leuz-Fedinghan-Lanis model and the Todaro-labor flow model are the theoretical basis. Combined with the output value of the first, second and third industries and the number of employed people from 1978 to 2013, this paper analyzes the present situation of industrial structure and employment structure in China. Among them, the proportion of output value and employment of the primary industry has continued to decline, the proportion of the output value of the secondary industry has been relatively stable and the proportion of employment has increased slightly, and the proportion of output value and employment of the tertiary industry has increased. However, the upward trend is not significant. By comparing the labor productivity and employment growth elasticity, this paper discusses the coordination and efficiency of the changes of industrial structure and employment structure. It is found that our country's primary industry has surplus labor force, the second industry has limited demand for labor force, the third industry has great demand for labor force, and the third industry has the best coordination, followed by the second industry. The last is the primary industry. At the same time, the industrial structure and employment structure of the secondary and tertiary industries are analyzed from 2004 to 2012. In the second industry, although the absorptive capacity of mining labor force is higher than the average level, in 2012, there appeared a great crowding out effect. The manufacturing and electricity, gas and water production and supply industries are relatively stable; The construction industry has the phenomenon of labor surplus, but the degree of crowding out is decreasing year by year. In the tertiary industry, the demand for labor is most obvious in the real estate industry, as well as in the resident service industry and other service industries, followed by wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and catering industry, financial industry and so on, all of which have a certain labor absorption capacity. Other industries need to invest more capital and technology in order to develop in a balanced way. On this basis, combined with our country and several foreign countries for comparative analysis. It is concluded that the industrial structure and the employment structure of our country are not as harmonious as those of the developed countries, and the employment structure is lagging behind the development of the industrial structure. The development experience of the developed countries provides a good example for the economic development of our country. We should use these experiences for reference to break this situation, at the same time, this paper also puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.2

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