城区经济发展与景观格局变化的动态模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 01:07

本文关键词：城区经济发展与景观格局变化的动态模型研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市生态系统是地球各大生态系统中最特别的景观。相对于森林生态系统等自然生态系统,城市生态系统的生态结构非常简单,通常以城市用地为优势景观,并且在很大程度上受到人类活动的影响。经济发展、技术发展、社会发展对城市土地转换即城市化有着至关重要的影响,反过来,城市化也深刻地改变着城市生态系统的结构,功能及动态。如今,人类所面临的很多生态问题、环境问题都与城市化的关系非常紧密,生态环境的状况好坏可以充分反映城市土地利用的合理性。量化景观格局以及其动态变化是对于城市化的生态后果进行监测和评估必不可少的部分。在众多城市模型中,元胞自动机是一种被广泛使用的动态模型,利用这个模型,可以很好的对城市土地变化进行模拟与预测。本文选择城市化发展迅速的北京市海淀区和朝阳区作为研究区域,研究的时间幅度为1984年到2009年共25年,时间间隔为5年,利用RS和GIS软件对遥感影像进行解译,获取土地利用分类图,并根据景观生态学中的有关理论,使用景观格局指数方法,运用FRAGSTATS软件对分类结果进行景观指数计算,对研究区景观格局变化的变化进行历史性回顾分析,并对城市景观规划提出基于景观格局的建议。结果表明:一般而言,随着城市化的发展景观应该逐渐破碎化,但对于研究区而言,景观指数的表现却恰恰相反,各种指标都表明随着人工建筑面积的增加,裸土的减少,景观破碎度减小,景观结构复杂程度减小,景观多样性减小。人类活动的干扰强大是城市景观与自然景观最大的不同,但也正是因为有人的管理,我们可以做到在了解景观格局的基础上对城市景观进行优化。此外,为了动态模拟城市化发展,本研究采用基于逻辑回归的元胞自动机理论来实现城市土地利用变化动态模拟。在Arc GIS软件支持下,获取一系列城市发展的自然及经济社会约束条件。将1984年和1994年的分类结果作为训练集使用逻辑回归来生成元胞自动机状态转换规则,最后将其运用到1994年分类结果得到2004年土地利用模拟图,并与2004年遥感影像分类结果图进行对比,验证模型精度为海淀区70.02%,朝阳区64.94%。研究成果具有重要意义,并能为其以后的发展做出预测和提出建议。
[Abstract]:City ecosystem is the special landscape of the ecological system of the earth. With respect to the forest ecological system and natural ecological system, ecological structure of city ecological system is very simple, usually in the city land is the dominant landscape, and largely influenced by human activities. The influence of the development of technology, economic development, social development of the city the city of land conversion has important influence, in turn, the city also changed the structure of city ecological system, function and dynamic. Nowadays, many ecological problems facing mankind, environment and city relations asked questions are very close, the ecological environment situation can fully reflect the rationality of city land use the quantification of landscape pattern and its dynamic change is an essential part for the monitoring and assessment of ecological consequences of the city. In many city cellular model. Automaton is a kind of dynamic model is widely used, using this model, can be very good on the city land use change simulation and prediction. The rapid development of Beijing city and Haidian District city of Chaoyang District as the study area, study the time range from 1984 to 2009 a total of 25 years, the time interval is 5 years, for remote sensing image interpretation using RS and GIS software, the acquisition of land use classification map, and according to the relevant theories of landscape ecology, using landscape pattern index method, using FRAGSTATS software landscape index for the classification results, changes of landscape pattern change in the study area were retrospectively analyzed and the history of city landscape planning of landscape pattern based on the advice. The results showed that: in general, with the development of city landscape should be gradually fragmented, but for the study area, landscape index's performance is just On the contrary, various indicators show that with the increase of artificial construction area, reducing bare soil, landscape fragmentation decreased, landscape complexity decreases, landscape diversity decreased. The disturbance of human activity is strong in different city landscape and the natural landscape of the largest, but it is also because the management of people, we can do it in based on the understanding of the landscape pattern of city landscape optimization. In addition, in order to dynamic simulation of city development, this research is based on cellular automaton theory for binary logistic regression to realize city dynamic simulation of land use changes in the Arc. Under the support of GIS software, obtaining a series of city development and the natural economic and social constraints. The classification results will be in 1984 and 1994 as the training set using logistic regression to generate cellular automaton state transition rules, and finally apply it to the classification results obtained land in 2004 1994 With the simulation map, and compared with the 2004 remote sensing image classification results, to verify the accuracy of the model for Haidian District 70.02%, Chaoyang District has an important significance of 64.94%. research, and for its future development and make predictions and recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.23;P901

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