新疆固定资产投资的效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 13:25

本文关键词：新疆固定资产投资的效应研究　出处：《新疆财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

更多相关文章： 固定资产投资 VAR模型 就业 居民收入

【摘要】：投资作为拉动经济的“三大马车”之一,既是促进国民经济增长的首要动力,又是维持国民经济健康发展的关键因素。总需求与总供给的平衡是国民经济健康发展的必要条件。一般来说,总需求由投资需求和消费需求两部分组成。在现实经济活动中,与消费需求相比,投资需求的变动更为频繁。投资活动增加社会的总需求,刺激所投资产品的生产,带动消费者的需求、刺激生产,从而带动整个社会的生产和就业的增加。具体到区域层面,投资所带来的影响也是综合的、多方面的和巨大的。而固定资产投资作为投资的重要组成部分,对区域经济社会状况的影响也是巨大的,着重研究固定资产投资的效应问题,对于提升和优化区域固定资产投资效应,构建和谐社会具有重大理论意义。本文以新疆为主要研究范围,采用规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,在客观认识新疆固定资产投资现状的基础上,运用VAR模型,脉冲响应等计量方法分析新疆固定资产投资的经济效应和社会效应,选取经济增长、就业、税收、物价、居民收入五个指标,研究固定资产投资的影响效应,分析和评价新疆固定资产投资的总量问题和结构问题,并针对新疆的特殊性,从提高投资效率的角度出发,提出有针对性的对策建议。文章分为四个部分。第一部分是绪论(第一章),提出研究的背景、目的,从理论和实证两个方面对国内外关于固定资产及其效应的研究现状进行梳理和评价。对本文的研究结构、研究方法和内容加以说明。第二部分(第二章)对文章中所使用的基本概念加以界定,并介绍固定资产投资对经济增长、就业、税收、物价和居民收入发挥效应的理论基础和作用机制。第三部分(第三章)对新疆固定资产投资现状和就业、税收、CPI和居民收入发展的现状进行分析,着重分析固定资产投资的规模、结构、增长速度,对新疆固定资产投资的发展状况有一个基本的认识,并从不同产业的角度出发,比较分析固定资产投资及就业、税收、居民收入等在三大产业中的不同表现。第四部分(第四章、第五章)为本文的计量分析部分和政策建议部分。采用时间序列数据对新疆固定资产投资对经济增长、就业、税收、物价和居民收入的效应进行分析,并针对计量结果分析评价固定资产投资效应发挥如何,进而提出相应的政策建议。通过研究,得到如下结论:一是新疆固定资产投资对CPI的影响在初期逐渐上升,且均为正值,数值较大。这说明新疆固定资产投资对CPI有较强的推动作用。二是新疆固定资产投资对产出的促进效应有较长的滞后期,在后期促进作用明显。这表明新疆固定资产投资的经济效应主要表现为长期作用。三是新疆固定资产投资对就业的影响为负。新疆固定资产投资主要集中在第二产业,特别是中央国有大中型企业,这些企业属于资本密集型行业,对劳动力的需求并不大。四是新疆固定资产投资对地方税收的效应不显著,这是由于新疆固定资产投资总量虽然不断增大,但是结构上仍存在偏差,固定资产投资对地方税收的直接贡献较小。但是,固定资产投资可以通过影响消费来间接地提高税收,这就可以解释地方政府为什么鼓励投资。五是新疆固定资产投资对居民收入的影响波动较大,呈上下波动的趋势。本文的创新之处主要体现在:第一,以往的固定资产投资效应研究主要侧重于投资的经济效应分析,本文从民生效应出发,除了分析固定资产投资的经济效应之外,选取就业、税收、居民收入等关系民生的指标,分析固定资产投资对改善民生所起的作用,这是与以往研究的不同之处。第二,以前的研究多是以全国数据为基础,分析固定资产投资在国家层面上的效应。本文将研究范围缩小,着重考察新疆固定资产投资的效应。但在固定资产投资现状分析中将新疆与全国进行对比分析,采取了整体与部分相结合的方法。
[Abstract]:Investment as the economy "three carriages" is one of the most important power is to promote the growth of national economy, and is the key factor to maintain the healthy development of the national economy. The total demand and supply balance is a necessary condition for the healthy development of the national economy. In general, the total demand by investment demand and consumption demand in two parts. In the real economy, compared with the consumption demand and investment demand more frequent changes in investment activities. Increasing the total social demand, stimulate investment products, driven by consumer demand, stimulate production, so as to drive the whole production and increase employment. Specific to the regional level, affect the investment brought by the comprehensive the multi aspect and huge. While fixed asset investment as an important part of investment, the impact on regional economic and social situation is enormous, focusing on fixed assets The effect of investment, to improve and optimize the regional fixed asset investment effect, has great significance to build a harmonious society. This paper takes Xinjiang as the main research scope, using the method of combining normative analysis and empirical analysis, based on the objective understanding of fixed asset investment in Xinjiang on the current situation, the use of VAR model, analysis of economic effects and social effects Xinjiang fixed asset investment impulse response measurement methods, selection of economic growth, employment, tax, price, income five indicators, the effect of investment in fixed assets, total amount and structure of problem analysis and problem evaluation of fixed assets investment in Xinjiang, and according to the particularity of Xinjiang, from the point of improving the efficiency of investment. Put forward some countermeasures. The article is divided into four parts. The first part is the introduction (Chapter one), put forward the research background, purpose, from the theoretical and empirical analysis Two aspects of research status on fixed assets and its effect on the domestic and foreign research review and evaluation. The structure of this paper, research methods and to illustrate the content. The second part (the second chapter) to define the basic concepts used in the article, and the introduction of fixed asset investment to economic growth, employment, tax, price the income of residents and play the theoretical basis and mechanism of the effect. The third part (the third chapter) tax on fixed asset investment in Xinjiang situation and the employment status, and income, CPI development analysis, focuses on the analysis of fixed assets investment scale, structure, growth rate, have a basic understanding of the development status of Xinjiang fixed asset investment, and starting from the different industry perspective, comparative analysis of fixed assets investment and employment, tax, the income of the residents of different performance in the three industries. The fourth part (Chapter fourth, Fifth For Chapter) econometric analysis and policy recommendations in this paper. By using the time series data of Xinjiang fixed asset investment to economic growth, employment, tax, price and income effects are analyzed, and according to the measurement results of the analysis and evaluation of fixed asset investment effect how to play, and then put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. Through the research, get the following conclusion: one is the influence of Xinjiang investment in fixed assets of CPI increased gradually in the early stage, and was positive, larger. This shows that the fixed assets investment in Xinjiang has a strong role in promoting CPI. The two is to promote the effect of a longer lag period of fixed assets investment in Xinjiang on output, the effect is obvious. This indicates that the anaphase promoting the economic effect of fixed assets investment in Xinjiang mainly for long-term effects. Three is the effect of fixed assets investment in Xinjiang on employment is negative. Fixed asset investment in Xinjiang mainly concentrated In the second industry, especially the large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, these enterprises are capital intensive industries, the demand for labor is small. Four is the effect of Xinjiang investment in fixed assets of the local tax revenue is not significant, this is because the Xinjiang total investment of fixed assets, although increasing, but there are still deviation structure, investment in fixed assets direct contribution to the local tax is small. However, the fixed assets investment can indirectly raise taxes through consumption, which may explain why the local government to encourage investment in fixed assets investment in Xinjiang is five. Influence on Residents' income fluctuations, fluctuated trend. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in: first, analysis and Research on the economic effect of fixed asset investment effect has largely focused on investment, the effect of people's livelihood, in addition to the analysis of fixed assets investment. Moreover, selection of employment, tax, income and other livelihood indicators, analysis of the fixed assets investment to improve people's livelihood, which is different from previous studies. Second, previous research is based on national data as the foundation, analysis of effect of investment in fixed assets at the national level. This paper will study to narrow the scope, focuses on the effect of fixed assets investment in Xinjiang. But in Xinjiang fixed asset investment situation analysis will with the comparative analysis, adopts the method of combining the whole and the part.

【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283

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