云南省区域生态系统可持续发展预警研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 14:28

本文关键词：云南省区域生态系统可持续发展预警研究　出处：《云南师范大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为了对区域生态系统可持续发展进行动态监测,本研究以城市生态系统发展为主线,以2008-2012年5年为时间尺度,云南省及16个市州作为区域空间尺度,运用熵权模糊物元模型对其进行区域生态系统可持续发展预警研究。重点从云南省及16个区域生态系统的自然子系统、经济子系统、社会子系统出发,对云南省及16区域进行可持续发展的时空预警研究,得出以下结论:2008-2012年,云南省及16市州生态系统可持续发展综合景气指数总体较高且出现逐年降低,可持续发展水平呈上升趋势,可持续发展程度逐步趋于提高,复合生态系统协调性得到不同程度的改善,系统进一步趋向协调。2008-2012年,云南省16市州中,怒江州、德宏州、保山市、昭通市等市州在这段时间内景气指数均较高,可持续发展程度较低,复合系统及各子系统有待改善,向协调方向发展;昆明市、楚雄州、丽江市可持续发展综合景气指数较低,处于相对和谐状态。在自然子系统中,水资源条件,即人均生活用水量及生态用水比重对云南省级16市州城市生态系统的可持续发展具有较强的束缚作用;建成区覆盖率、人均公园绿地面积、工业固体废物综合利用率次之。在经济子系统中,第三产业的比重的束缚性较强。在社会子系统中,农民人均纯收入及每百人公共图书馆藏书量在可持续发展中占有举足轻重的位置。在今后的发展中,要充分利用各项指标的发展变化状态,灵活运用区域生态系统的预警机制,评价区域生态系统的协调发展状态,判断关键因子的发展变化趋势,进而对区域发展过程中的各种问题进行优化调控。云南省区域生态系统可持续发展警度较高,协调性偏低,要实现云南省城市生态系统健康和谐发展,就应合理利用水资源,节约与开发并举;完善相关法律法规,切实做到资源环境的保护;优化产业结构,构建绿色GDP考核体系;政府加大对云南省贫困地区、民族地区的扶持力度;加快云南省基础设施建设;积极建立社会主义新山区示范点;加强基础教育,做到区域义务教育均衡发展等措施推进区域生态系统可持续发展。
[Abstract]:In order to dynamically monitor the sustainable development of regional ecosystem, this study takes urban ecosystem development as the main line and 5 years from 2008 to 2012 as the time scale. Yunnan Province and 16 cities and prefectures are considered as regional spatial scales. Using the entropy weight fuzzy matter-element model to carry on the regional ecosystem sustainable development early warning research, mainly from Yunnan Province and 16 regional ecosystem natural subsystem, the economic subsystem, the social subsystem. Based on the study of space-time early warning of sustainable development in Yunnan Province and 16 regions, the following conclusions are drawn: 2008-2012. The comprehensive prosperity index of sustainable development of ecological system in Yunnan province and 16 cities is high and decreasing year by year. The level of sustainable development is on the rise and the degree of sustainable development tends to improve gradually. The coordination of complex ecosystem has been improved to varying degrees, and the system further tends to coordinate from 2008 to 2012, in 16 cities of Yunnan Province, Nujiang, Dehong, Baoshan. Zhaotong city and other cities in this period of the prosperity index are higher, the degree of sustainable development is low, the composite system and subsystems need to be improved, to coordinate the direction of development; Kunming City, Chuxiong Prefecture, Lijiang City sustainable development comprehensive prosperity index is low, in a relatively harmonious state. In the natural subsystem, water resources conditions. That is, the per capita water consumption and the proportion of ecological water have a strong binding effect on the sustainable development of urban ecosystem of 16 prefectures in Yunnan province. In the economic subsystem, the proportion of tertiary industry has a strong binding. In the social subsystem. The per capita net income of farmers and the amount of books in public libraries per 100 people play an important role in the sustainable development. In the future development, we should make full use of the development and change state of each index. Using the early warning mechanism of regional ecosystem flexibly to evaluate the coordinated development of regional ecosystem and judge the development trend of key factors. The sustainable development of the regional ecosystem in Yunnan Province is relatively high, coordination is low, to achieve a healthy and harmonious development of urban ecosystem in Yunnan Province. We should make rational use of water resources, save and develop simultaneously; Improve the relevant laws and regulations, and effectively protect the resources and environment; Optimize the industrial structure and construct the green GDP examination system; The government should strengthen the support to the poverty-stricken areas and minority areas in Yunnan Province; Speeding up the construction of infrastructure in Yunnan Province; Actively establish demonstration sites in new socialist mountain areas; Strengthen basic education, achieve balanced development of regional compulsory education and other measures to promote sustainable development of regional ecosystem.
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X22

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