低碳背景下工业行业碳排放区域差异实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 17:27

本文关键词：低碳背景下工业行业碳排放区域差异实证研究　出处：《西南交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球气候问题的加剧,世界范围内对于减缓气候变化,减少二氧化碳排放的呼声越来越高。低碳发展成为各国共识。发达国家率先提出并实施了一系列低碳经济和减排政策,取得了一定成效,我国作为发展中国家,本着负责任大国的态度履行着我国碳排放义务。近年来随着公众对雾霾天气的关注和担忧,碳排放问题和其他环境问题再次成为学术界关注的重点。首先本文在阅读大量相关文献的基础上,结合目前我国工业碳排放和区域发展现状,运用DeBruyn因素分解模型,分析低碳背景下工业这一具体行业碳排放区域化差异的影响因素,在已有文献和理论模型的基础上,基于我国2005年至2011年工业行业碳排放及影响因素的相关数据,运用计量方法,从工业行业的视角进行实证分析,本文主要工作和结论如下。设定工业行业碳排放强度,按照各地区工业能源消耗量折算出二氧化碳排放量,然后据此得出该地区工业二氧化碳排放强度,按照强度数值由大到小顺序将全国工业碳排放区域划分为高、中、低三区域；文中主要进行两个部分的分析,一是工业行业规模效应,技术效应,结构效应和治理效应对区域碳排放的影响,二是验证区域碳排放是否符合CKC模型曲线特征。根据分解模型分解出的影响因素,收集对应的工业行业的面板数据并进行处理；建立回归模型,通过模型实证分析得出以下结论：1.按照工业碳排放强度划分的高、中、低三区域与传统的东、中、西部划分结果并不具有一致性,传统经济发展程度不完全等同其工业二氧化碳排放强度；2.利用分解模型将工业二氧化碳排放量落实到用结构效应、规模效应、技术效应和治理效应进行分析,这些效应在工业碳排放强度为高、中、低的三区域其影响效果均不相同,其中结构效应在各区域中对工业碳排放量均没有显著影响；3.不同区域的收入水平(人均GDP)与工业行业二氧化碳排放量之间存在倒“U”关系,当区域收入增加到一定数值时,之后区域收入水平继续增加反而会引起工业二氧化碳排放量的减少。基于以上结论,提出以下建议：未来我国工业行业碳排放的实现路径,应在满足经济发展的前提下控制工业总规模；加快工业行业内的产业结构调整速度,同时加大调整工业结构的力度,才能在今后实现结构效应对于工业碳排放的显著负向影响；要在坚持推进工业产业结构升级的同时,均衡发展其他产业,实现区域收入水平的大幅提升,通过采取这些措施,能够减少工业二氧化碳排放,为环境保护和气候变化做出更大贡献。
[Abstract]:With the global climate problem intensifies worldwide for climate change mitigation, reduce carbon dioxide emissions is increasing. Low carbon development has become a consensus. The developed countries first proposed and implemented a series of low carbon economy and emission reduction policies, and achieved certain results, as a developing country, with a responsible attitude towards its powers the duty of carbon emission in China. In recent years, with the public attention and concern of the haze weather, carbon emissions and other environmental issues once again become the focus of academic attention. First, based on reading a lot of literature, combined with the current status of China's industrial carbon emissions and regional development, using the DeBruyn factor decomposition model analysis influence factors under the background of low carbon industry in the specific industry carbon emissions of regional differences, based on the existing literature and theoretical model, based on our country in 2005 To 2011, industrial carbon emissions and related data of influence factors, using econometric methods, the empirical analysis from the industry perspective, the main work and conclusions are as follows. The set of industrial carbon emission intensity, in accordance with the conversion of industrial energy consumption by Region two of carbon dioxide emissions, and then derive the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions in the region industry according to the numerical strength, from large to small order of national industrial carbon emission area is divided into high, low three area; the analysis of two parts mainly in the paper, one is industry scale effect, technical effect, structure effect and governance effect on regional carbon emissions, the two is to verify the regional carbon emissions whether accord with the characteristic curve of CKC. According to the factors affecting decomposition model decomposition, processing industry to collect the panel data and regression model is established by the model; The empirical analysis draws the following conclusions: 1. according to the industrial carbon emission intensity of high, low, three regional and traditional East, west division results are not consistent with the traditional, the degree of economic development is not exactly the same as the industrial carbon dioxide emissions; 2. by using the decomposition model of industrial carbon dioxide emissions into structure effect the scale effect, technical analysis, effect and governance effect, these effects in the industrial carbon emission intensity is high, in three areas of low their effects are not the same, the structure effect on industrial carbon emissions in various regions are not significant; 3. different areas of the level of income (GDP per capita) are down "U" and the relationship between industrial carbon dioxide emissions, when the regional income increases to a certain value, the regional income levels continue to increase but will cause industrial carbon dioxide emissions of two Reduced. Based on the above conclusions, put forward the following suggestions: the future of China's industrial sector carbon emissions to achieve the path, should control the total industrial scale in order to meet the demand of economic development; speed up the industrial structure adjustment speed of the industrial sectors, while increasing efforts to adjust industrial structure, to achieve in the future structure effect for industrial carbon emissions significantly a negative impact; we should insist on promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and the development of other industries to achieve regional balance, greatly enhance the level of income, through these measures to reduce carbon emissions in two industrial oxidation, and make greater contribution to environmental protection and climate change.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F424.1;F224

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