中国城镇化进程中金融发展与农民收入增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 09:13

本文关键词： 金融发展农民收入增长城镇化　出处：《江西师范大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来城乡收入差距的绝对额逐渐拉大,城镇居民收入的涨幅大大高于农民收入的涨幅。增加农民收入必须充分挖掘农业内部增收潜力,开发农村二三产业增收空间,拓宽农村外部增收渠道,加大政策助农增收力度。此外中央一号文件连续12年聚焦“三农”问题,显示了党中央和国务院对农村、农业和农民问题持续而高度的重视。当前经济增速步入中高速增长,在经济新常态下,强化农业基础地位、促进农民收入持续增长、缩小城乡收入差距,不仅是当前政府工作的重点,而且是学术界亟待解决的重大课题。因此,本文通过梳理农民收入及金融发展相关理论,在前人理论研究基础上,结合我国经济发展的具体情况,对我国农民收入水平变化过程以及农民收入构成变化进行分析,发现农民工资性收入的增长对农民收入增长的影响不断提高,工资性收入占农民纯收入的比重呈递增趋势。随后,本文分析了城镇化进程中金融发展影响农民收入机制,通过查找城镇化进程中金融发展和农民收入的相关数据,运用向量自回归模型对二者之间的关系进行检验,对实证结果进行分析,证明:金融发展规模、金融发展效率、城镇化率、财政支农力度与农村居民家庭人均纯收入这五个变量之间具有长期的均衡关系,其中,金融发展效率、城镇化率和财政支农力度与农民家庭人均纯收入之间正相关;金融发展规模、金融发展效率、城镇化率、财政支农力度这四个时间序列变量与农村居民家庭人均纯收入之间都互为格兰杰因果关系;城镇化进程中金融发展规模和国家财政支农力度对农村居民家庭人均纯收入的影响相似,前期影响主要是正的,但是随着时间的推移,后期的影响却是负的;城镇化进程中金融发展效率和城镇化率对农村居民家庭人均纯收入影响也相似,前期的影响是负的,但是随着时间的推移,后期对农民收入水平一直有着稳定的正向影响;金融发展规模、金融发展效率、城镇化率以及国家财政支农力度这四个时间序列变量对农村居民家庭人均纯收入增长的贡献率大致也是呈上升趋势。此外,国家财政支农力度的贡献率最大,与金融发展规模相比,金融发展规模的贡献率要相对较大。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the absolute amount of urban-rural income gap has gradually widened, and the increase of urban residents' income is much higher than that of farmers' income. We should develop the second and third industries in rural areas to increase income, widen the channels of external income increase in rural areas, and increase the intensity of policies to increase agricultural income. In addition, the first document of the Central Committee has focused on the issue of "agriculture, countryside and farmers" for 12 consecutive years. This shows that the CPC Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the rural, agricultural and peasant problems. The current economic growth rate has stepped into a medium and high speed. Under the new normal state of the economy, the basic position of agriculture has been strengthened. Promoting the sustainable growth of farmers' income and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas is not only the focus of the current government work, but also an important subject to be solved urgently in academia. This article combs the farmer income and the financial development correlation theory, in the predecessor theory research foundation, unifies our country economic development concrete situation. Through the analysis of the change process of farmers' income level and the change of farmers' income composition, it is found that the increase of peasants' wage income has an increasing impact on the growth of farmers' income. The proportion of wage income to farmers' net income is increasing. Then, this paper analyzes the influence of financial development on farmers' income mechanism in the process of urbanization. By looking up the relevant data of financial development and farmers' income in the process of urbanization, using the vector autoregressive model to test the relationship between the two, the empirical results are analyzed to prove that: the scale of financial development. Financial development efficiency, urbanization rate, financial support for agriculture and rural households per capita net income of the five variables have a long-term equilibrium relationship, among which, financial development efficiency. The urbanization rate and financial support for agriculture are positively correlated with the per capita net income of peasant families; The scale of financial development, the efficiency of financial development, the rate of urbanization, the degree of financial support for agriculture, the four time series variables and the per capita net income of rural households are all Granger causality; In the process of urbanization, the scale of financial development and the national financial support for agriculture have a similar impact on the per capita net income of rural households. The early impact is mainly positive, but with the passage of time, the late impact is negative; In the process of urbanization, the impact of financial development efficiency and urbanization rate on the per capita net income of rural households is similar, the early impact is negative, but with the passage of time. In the later period, there has been a stable positive impact on farmers' income level. The scale of financial development, the efficiency of financial development, the urbanization rate and the state financial support for agriculture are four time series variables, which contribute to the increase of per capita net income of rural households. In addition, the contribution rate of the four time series variables is also on the rise. Compared with the scale of financial development, the contribution rate of financial development scale is relatively large.
【学位授予单位】：江西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.21;F323.8

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