纳米比亚经济中的通货膨胀率与失业率之间是否存在替代关系

发布时间：2018-02-03 04:44

本文关键词： 通货膨胀失业纳米比亚菲利普斯曲线最小二乘法　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文从菲利普斯曲线切入,采用最小二乘法,研究1991年至2014年之间纳米比亚经济中的通货膨胀率与失业率之间是否存在替代关系。扩展下的迪基-富勒检验显示,所有变量都为零等级(I(0)),在拟合测试显示中,他们的拟合等级也为零(I(0))。通过分析可得知,纳米比亚的通货膨胀率和失业率之间的负相关性在短期中和预期中一致,但是在长期,通货膨胀率和失业率之间存在正相关性,这与认为通胀政策不能在长期中减少失业率的“卢卡斯批判”如出一辙。在M0对通胀率的预测结果中,通货膨胀与货币供给之间存在着正相关性,这意味着当货币供给上升时,会引致纳米比亚的通胀率上升。本研究还对一些对纳米比亚高失业率有显著影响的因素给予了定义,如高比例的文盲群体、高比例的无经验人士、高比例的年轻人和女性,分析发现这些都对高失业率有更显著影响。本文进一步指出,在纳米比亚,采用那些试图减少失业率的通货膨胀政策,在短期内是有效的,而在长期中,政策决策者需要综合考虑其他政策来实施通货膨胀政策,以达到减少失业率的效果。
[Abstract]:This paper starts from the Phillips curve, using the least squares method, between 1991 to 2014 Namibia economy inflation rate and the unemployment rate is there an alternative relationship between expansion. Under the Dickey Fuller test showed that all the variables are zero level (I (0)), in fitting test shows that the fitting level they also zero (I (0)). The analysis shows the Namibia between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in the short run and the expected negative correlation, but in the long term, there is a positive correlation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, the inflation and that policy cannot reduce the unemployment rate of the "Lucas critique" is exactly the same in the long term the results of M0. In the prediction of the rate of inflation, there is a positive correlation between inflation and money supply, which means that when the money supply rises, will cause inflation in Namibia rose. The study of some have significant influence on Namibia's high unemployment rate factors defined, such as the high proportion of illiterate population, a high proportion of people without experience, a high proportion of young people and women, all of the analysis found that high unemployment has more significant effect. This paper further points out that, in Namibia, by those who try to to reduce the unemployment rate inflation policy is effective in the short term, but in the long term, policymakers need to consider other policies to implement policies to reduce inflation, the unemployment rate effect.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F824.77;F249.477

【相似文献】