中国省际季度GDP强影响性特征的协同效应和共振效应

发布时间：2018-02-11 05:44

本文关键词： 中国省际季度GDP 强影响性统计诊断协同效应空间面板模型　出处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文首次基于现代前沿的宏观经济统计诊断理论从空间和时间二维角度对我国30个省份季度GDP的强影响性特征的协同效应和共振效应进行了实证分析。主要结论为,我国省际季度GDP存在着明显的强影响性特征。整体上看,在四种空间权重矩阵下样本期内所得到的每个季度的诊断统计量数值都十分接近,且其变动趋势高度一致。我国省际季度GDP强影响性特征呈现明显的多峰型特征。各省份季度GDP强影响性特征存在着显著的空间关联机制和正向协同效应,各省份强影响性特征会显著受到共同因子的正向影响,它们之间存在着显著的共振效应,我国省际季度GDP强影响性特征主要出现在第4季度,而第1季度不显著,第2季度、第3季度弱于第4季度而强于第1季度。
[Abstract]:For the first time, based on the modern frontier macroeconomic statistical diagnosis theory, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the synergistic effect and resonance effect of the strong influential characteristics of quarterly GDP in 30 provinces of China from the perspective of spatial and temporal 2-D. The main conclusions are as follows:. The interprovincial quarterly GDP in China has obvious characteristics of strong influence. On the whole, the diagnostic statistics obtained during the sample period under the four spatial weight matrices are very close to each other. And the variation trend is highly consistent. The strong impact characteristics of inter-provincial GDP show obvious multi-peak type characteristics. There is a significant spatial correlation mechanism and positive synergistic effect between provinces. The strong influential characteristics of each province will be significantly affected by the common factors, and there is a significant resonance effect between them. The strong influential characteristics of GDP in inter-provincial quarter of China mainly appear in the fourth quarter, but the first quarter is not significant, the second quarter, The third quarter was weaker than the fourth quarter and stronger than the first quarter.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学经济学院;上海海事大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F224.0

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