劳动力转移的结构红利效应研究

发布时间：2018-02-23 02:08

本文关键词： 劳动力转移三次产业结构红利转折点　出处：《经济问题探索》2016年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在经济新常态背景下,中国的人口转变带来了劳动力数量和结构的变化。本文采用随机前沿生产函数模型,实证分析了1978-2013年三次产业间劳动力转移所引致的结构红利效应,从劳动力产业间转移的视角探求促进中国经济发展的要因。研究发现,劳动力转移的结构红利效应确实存在。第一产业的结构红利除了少数几个年份外整体上为正,而第二、三产业由于劳动力的流动经历了由盲目到规范有序的过程,结构红利呈现出由负变正的趋势。此外,由于结构红利在整个周期存在波动性,2013年为人口红利拐点的观点并未被证实。鉴于此,应从加快城镇化进程、推进产业结构调整升级、加强基本公共服务均等化建设、提高教育质量和加强技能培训等多方面着手拓展结构红利,实现高水平的经济发展。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the new normal economy, the population transition in China has brought about the changes in the quantity and structure of labor force. This paper adopts the stochastic frontier production function model to empirically analyze the structural dividend effect caused by the three inter-industry labor force transfers from 1978 to 2013. From the perspective of industrial transfer of labor force, this paper explores the main reasons for promoting the economic development of China. The study finds that the structural dividend effect of labor force transfer does exist. The structural dividend of the primary industry is positive as a whole except for a few years, and second, Due to the flow of labor force, the tertiary industry has experienced a process from blindness to normality and the structural dividend has shown a trend of negative and positive. In addition, Due to the volatility of structural dividend in the whole cycle, the view that 2013 is the inflection point of demographic dividend has not been confirmed. In view of this, we should speed up the process of urbanization, promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, and strengthen the construction of equalization of basic public services. Improve the quality of education and strengthen skills training and other aspects of the development of structural dividends to achieve a high level of economic development.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学;
【基金】：国家社科重大项目:“完善计划生育利益导向机制研究”(项目编号:11&ZD038)
【分类号】：F249.2

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