基于经济基础理论的中国城市基本-非基本经济活动关系的实证检验

发布时间：2018-02-28 18:46

本文关键词： 经济基础理论乘数效应 VAR模型城市规模　出处：《地理科学》2016年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：经济基础理论是分析城市经济活动的经典理论之一,但此理论既没有获得全面认可也没有被完全否定。基于改进的区位商方法、线性回归模型和VAR模型,选取吉林省中小城市、三亚市、海口市、深圳市、广州市作为研究对象,对其基本-非基本经济活动关系进行实证检验。研究发现:1991~2013年,规模相对较小的海口市发展动力主要来源于基本经济活动,与经济基础理论相符合;规模大的广州市经济活动的表现形式与经济基础理论不相符。研究结果表明:"基本-非基本经济活动比例关系随着城市规模的扩大而逐渐减小"这一城市发展必然现象假说对于具备相当规模和一定水平的城市成立,存在城市规模门槛。运用边际乘数法估计"乘数效应"更加有效,平均乘数法估计"乘数效应"存在明显不足。规模大的城市其基本经济活动产生的"乘数效应"弱化,城市经济活动已不符合基本经济模式,表现为基本-非基本经济活动相互依存的模式。结合实证结果,提出了2个有待进一步验证的假设。
[Abstract]:The theory of economic base is one of the classical theories of analyzing urban economic activities, but this theory is neither fully recognized nor completely denied. Based on the improved location quotient method, linear regression model and VAR model, the small and medium-sized cities of Jilin Province are selected. Sanya City, Haikou City, Shenzhen City, Guangzhou City as the object of study, the relationship between basic and non-basic economic activities is empirically tested. It is found that the relatively small scale of Haikou City's development power mainly comes from basic economic activities from 1991 to 2013. Accord with the basic theory of economy; The manifestation of economic activities in Guangzhou on a large scale does not accord with the basic theory of economy. The results show that the proportion of basic and non-basic economic activities decreases with the expansion of urban scale. However, the phenomenon hypothesis is established for a city with a considerable scale and a certain level. There is a threshold of urban scale. It is more effective to estimate "multiplier effect" by using the marginal multiplier method, but there are obvious shortcomings in the estimation of "multiplier effect" by the average multiplier method, and the "multiplier effect" produced by the basic economic activities of a large city is weakened. The urban economic activities are not in line with the basic economic model, which is characterized by the interdependence of the basic and non-basic economic activities. Based on the empirical results, two hypotheses need to be further verified.
【作者单位】：中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571152)、国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41201159;41201160) 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院重大咨询项目(Y02015005)、中国科学院重点部署项目(KSZD-EW-Z-021)资助~~
【分类号】：F299.21

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