烟台龙泰10000吨冷库建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 00:03

本文选题：项目风险管理　切入点：项目风险评估　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着经济发展,人民生活水平得到很大提高,对于冷链的需求急剧增加。作为冷链的重要环节—冷库建设,迎来了飞速发展的机遇。冷库建设是一个复杂的系统工程,其在建设及使用过程中存在很多风险因素。随着冷库快速发展也存在很多问题,风险事件频发。项目风险管理对于冷藏行业的健康发展具有重要的现实意义,其管理水平的高低关系到行业的兴衰、企业的命运。本文以烟台市龙泰10000吨冷库建设工程作为案例,以现代项目风险管理的理论为基础,结合冷库建设具体实践对工程建设过程中可能存在的风险进行分析,并找到了应对的措施,以此来指导该项目风险管理。为冷库建设风险的管理提供了理论依据与方法论的支持。本文结合龙泰建设项目风险管理具体实践,对于风险管理各个阶段展开深入的研究：首先,在风险识别阶段：通过专家会议利用头脑风暴法对于龙泰项目五个阶段存在的风险因素进行识别,识别出23个风险因素；其次,在风险评价阶段：对于识别出的风险因素应用层次分析法逐一进行权重计算,并对相关的判断矩阵进行了一致性检验；在数据分析时应用了模糊综合评价法法对于所得数据进行了分析计算,对于整个项目的风险进行了评价,得出了龙泰项目整体风险水平一般的结论。本文在风险评估时对于项目五个阶段及23个风险因素进行了风险排序,从而确定了两个需要重点控制的阶段及8个关键控制点：最后,在风险控制阶段：在风险评估的基础上采用预防性的风险规避策略及关键点控制的思路,找出了龙泰项目风险控制措施。本文通过对龙泰建设项目风险研究解决了冷库风险管理中风险识别的方法问题以及风险评估的定量分析方法问题。同时将现代风险管理中预防性风险规避策略及关键点控制思路应用于冷库风险管理的实践,丰富了实践手段,对于冷库工程风险管理具有重要的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, the standard of living of the people has been greatly improved, and the demand for cold chain has increased sharply. As an important link of cold chain, the construction of cold storage has ushered in the opportunity of rapid development. The construction of cold storage is a complex system engineering. There are many risk factors in the process of construction and use. With the rapid development of cold storage, there are many problems, and risk events occur frequently. Project risk management has important practical significance for the healthy development of refrigeration industry. The management level is related to the rise and fall of the industry and the fate of the enterprise. This paper takes the Longtai 10000 ton cold storage construction project in Yantai as a case study, based on the theory of modern project risk management. Combined with the concrete practice of cold storage construction, the possible risks in the process of construction are analyzed, and the corresponding measures are found. It provides theoretical basis and methodological support for the risk management of cold storage construction. This paper combines the concrete practice of risk management in Longtai construction project. To carry out in-depth research on each stage of risk management: first, in the risk identification phase: through the expert meeting to identify the risk factors in the five stages of Longtai project by using the brainstorming method, and then identify 23 risk factors. In the stage of risk evaluation, the weight of identified risk factors is calculated one by one by AHP, and the consistency of the related judgment matrix is verified. In the data analysis, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to analyze and calculate the data, and the risk of the whole project is evaluated. The conclusion is that the overall risk level of Longtai project is general. In this paper, the five stages and 23 risk factors of the project are ranked in the risk assessment. Thus, two key control stages and eight key control points are determined. Finally, in the risk control stage, the preventive risk aversion strategy and the key point control are adopted on the basis of risk assessment. The risk control measures of Longtai Project are found out. This paper solves the problem of risk identification in cold storage risk management and the quantitative analysis method of risk assessment by studying the risk of Longtai Construction Project. The preventive risk avoidance strategy and key point control in risk management are applied to the practice of risk management in cold storage. Enriched the practical means, for cold storage engineering risk management has an important reference significance.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F252;TU71

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