我国服务业结构变动的就业效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 23:19

本文选题：服务业变动　切入点：就业规模　出处：《南京财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国正处于积极推动产业结构升级的历史阶段。当前的经济发展困境从服务业发展和就业问题两个角度来看可以概括为以下两个方面。第一,我国产业结构比较落后,第三产业发展水平偏低。第二,由于城镇化与高等教育的普及,我国就业问题越来越突出。因此,我国面临着服务业结构升级目标与劳动就业目标的协调问题。在保障和促进就业的前提下,产业结构升级的路径选择值得我们深入思考。针对服务业结构变动就业效应的研究,在理论上,可以拓展产业结构变动的研究范式,同时也将丰富就业理论。在现实中,一方面有助于解决当前的就业问题,推动服务业发展,就业规模和产业规模快速提升；另一方面有助于推动服务业结构和就业结构的高级化。在第三章,对我国服务业结构现状、农民工就业现状、大学生就业现状进行分析,并基于产业价值链分析结构性失业的原因。基于此,本文明确了服务业结构变动的内涵。依据服务业各行业要素密集度,本文将服务业分为劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型三类。服务业结构变动表现为资本密集型服务业和技术密集型服务业产值和从业人数比重的不断增长。在第四章构建了服务业结构变动就业效应的理论机制。服务业结构变动的就业效应分为规模效应和结构效应。其中,就业规模效应通过显性机制和隐性机制两种途径实现。一方面,行业自身的发展能够创造就业,从而产生就业效应；另一方面,行业与其他行业相互关联,通过供需匹配效应、产业关联效应、创新效应等途径,其发展能够促进相关产业的发展,从而产生间接就业效应。服务业结构变动对就业结构的影响主要体现在就业质量和配置效率两个方面。当一国服务业结构发生变化时,技术密集型服务业取代过去的劳动密集型产业成为该国的主导产业,劳动力也会有序的发生转移。服务业结构变动能够使得劳动资源由生产率低的行业流向生产率高的行业,从而提高劳动资源的配置效率。在第五章,以我国现实情况为依据,对理论机制进行实证检验。通过协整分析、投入产出分析等发现,技术密集型服务业具有最高的就业吸纳弹性、就业创造持续力和间接就业效应,劳动密集型服务业次之,资本密集型再次之。通过统计分析,服务业结构变动导致相同学历劳动力就业质量提高,技术密集型服务业就业比重增加,不同行业工资水平差距不断缩小,劳动资源配置效率不断提高。同时,通过回归分析发现,人均GDP水平、城镇化水平、市场化水平、固定资产投资等是影响我国服务业结构变动就业效应的主要因素。最后,文章从提升大学生就业和促进农民工就业两个方面,提出扩大技术密集型服务业就业规模、优化劳动密集型服务业结构等政策建议。
[Abstract]:China is in the historical stage of actively promoting the upgrading of industrial structure. The current predicament of economic development can be summarized as the following two aspects from the perspective of the development of service industry and employment. First, the industrial structure of our country is relatively backward. The development level of the tertiary industry is on the low side. Second, due to the popularization of urbanization and higher education, the employment problem in China is becoming more and more prominent. China is faced with the problem of coordination between the target of upgrading the service industry structure and the goal of labor employment. On the premise of ensuring and promoting employment, the path choice of the upgrading of industrial structure is worth our deep consideration. Theoretically, it can expand the research paradigm of industrial structure change, but also enrich the employment theory. In reality, on the one hand, it will help to solve the current employment problems, promote the development of service industry, employment scale and industrial scale of rapid upgrading; On the other hand, it is helpful to promote the advanced structure of service industry and employment structure. In the third chapter, it analyzes the present situation of service industry structure, the employment situation of migrant workers and the employment status of college students. Based on the analysis of the causes of structural unemployment based on the industrial value chain, this paper clarifies the connotation of the structural change of the service industry. According to the industry factor intensity of the service industry, this paper divides the service industry into labor-intensive. There are three types of capital-intensive and technology-intensive. The structural change of service industry is manifested by the increasing output value and the proportion of employed people of capital-intensive service and technology-intensive service. In Chapter 4th, the structural change of service industry is constructed. The employment effect of service industry structure change can be divided into scale effect and structure effect. On the one hand, the development of the industry itself can create employment and thus produce the employment effect; on the other hand, the industry and other industries are related to each other, through the matching effect of supply and demand. Industrial correlation effect, innovation effect and so on, its development can promote the development of related industries, The influence of service industry structure change on employment structure is mainly reflected in two aspects: employment quality and allocation efficiency. When a country's service industry structure changes, The technology-intensive service industry has replaced the labor-intensive industry in the past as the dominant industry in the country, and the labor force will also be transferred in an orderly manner. The structural changes in the service industry can enable the transfer of labor resources from low-productivity industries to high-productivity industries. So as to improve the efficiency of labor resources allocation. In Chapter 5th, based on the reality of our country, the theoretical mechanism is empirically tested. Through cointegration analysis, input-output analysis and other findings, The technology-intensive service industry has the highest flexibility of employment absorption, employment creation sustainability and indirect employment effect, labor-intensive service industry second, capital intensive again. Through statistical analysis, The structural changes in the service industry have led to the improvement of the employment quality of the labor force with the same academic qualifications, the increase in the proportion of employment in technology-intensive service industries, the narrowing of wage levels in different industries, and the continuous improvement in the efficiency of the allocation of labour resources. Through regression analysis, it is found that the per capita GDP level, urbanization level, market-oriented level and fixed asset investment are the main factors that affect the employment effect of service industry structure change in China. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on expanding the employment scale of technology-intensive service industry and optimizing the structure of labor-intensive service industry from the two aspects of promoting the employment of college students and promoting the employment of migrant workers.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F719;F249.2

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