基于AMSZ标准的中国省域经济动态效率研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 07:19

本文选题：代际交叠模型　切入点：AMSZ标准　出处：《重庆大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：准确把握经济的动态效率对于宏观调控国家和地区经济运行十分重要。长久以来,中国经济的高速增长过度依赖于投资。各省乃至中国以投资为主导的经济到底是不是动态无效的呢?基于AMSZ标准对中国整体以及31个省份1990至2012年的经济动态效率进行了检验,对中国经济动态效率的影响因素进行了分析。主要结论有:第一,整体上看中国经济基本上是动态有效的,不同省份之间的经济动态效率差异巨大。从分省份经济动态效率的实证分析结果来看,各省经济的动态效率与投资率负向相关,呈现对称变化趋势,约有19个省份半数以上年份的经济处于动态有效率状态,12个省份半数以上年份经济处于动态无效状态,其中经济动态无效的省份主要集中在西部地区,而大部分东部和中部地区的省市的多数年份都是动态有效的。从各省经济动态效率的变化趋势来看,上升型的省市有:北京、上海、浙江、重庆;振荡型的省市主要有江苏、山东、广东、安徽、江西、湖北、四川、贵州、山西;而下降型的省份主要有天津、河北、辽宁、福建、山西、吉林、黑龙江、河南、湖南、内蒙古、广西、云南、西藏、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆。第二,对经济动态效率影响最大的因素主要有国内生产总值中的投资率、地区产业结构;其中,投资率越高,经济动态效率越低;地区产业结构中,第三次产业产值比重越高,经济动态效率越高。另外,劳动力受教育水平对经济动态效率的提高也有正向促进作用的;而地方财政分权、实际利用外商的资本均不利于经济动态效率的提高。最后,根据得到研究结果,提出了一些政策建议。包括短期内通过一定规模的投资来稳定经济增长;长期内转变以往以投资为主导的经济增长方式;优化产业布局;改变以往的官员考核方式;加大人才的教育和培养力度;协调区域之间的经济发展,促进要素资源的跨区域流动;加快“供给侧”改革,进一步转移和淘汰落后产能;促进科技转变成生产力。
[Abstract]:It is very important to accurately grasp the dynamic efficiency of economy for macro-control of national and regional economic operation.China's rapid economic growth has long been over-dependent on investment.Are the provinces and even China's investment-led economy dynamic and ineffective?Based on the AMSZ standard, this paper tests the economic dynamic efficiency of China and 31 provinces from 1990 to 2012, and analyzes the influencing factors of China's economic dynamic efficiency.The main conclusions are as follows: first, on the whole, China's economy is basically dynamic and effective, and the economic dynamic efficiency varies greatly among different provinces.From the empirical analysis of the economic dynamic efficiency in the provinces, the dynamic efficiency of the provinces is negatively correlated with the investment rate, showing a symmetrical trend.About 19 provinces in more than half of the years are in a dynamic efficient state, while 12 provinces in more than half of the years are in a dynamic and invalid state, in which the provinces whose economic dynamics are invalid are mainly concentrated in the western region.Most provinces and cities in the eastern and central regions are dynamic in most years.According to the changing trend of economic dynamic efficiency in each province, the ascending provinces are Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and the oscillating provinces are mainly Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Sichuan, Guizhou, Shanxi, etc.The descending provinces are Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Fujian, Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Henan, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Yunnan, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang.Second, the main factors that have the greatest impact on the economic dynamic efficiency are the investment rate in the GDP, the regional industrial structure; the higher the investment rate, the lower the economic dynamic efficiency; the higher the proportion of the third industrial output value in the regional industrial structure,The higher the economic dynamic efficiency.In addition, the education level of labor force has a positive effect on the improvement of economic dynamic efficiency, while the decentralization of local finance and the actual utilization of foreign capital are not conducive to the improvement of economic dynamic efficiency.Finally, according to the research results, some policy suggestions are put forward.It includes stabilizing economic growth through investment of a certain scale in the short term; changing the mode of economic growth that used to be dominated by investment in the long run; optimizing the industrial layout; changing the assessment methods of officials in the past; strengthening the education and training of talents;Coordinating the economic development among regions, promoting the cross-regional flow of factor resources, speeding up the "supply-side" reform, further transferring and eliminating backward production capacity, and promoting the transformation of science and technology into productive forces.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F224;F124

【相似文献】