居民对房价的预期如何影响房价变动

发布时间：2018-04-11 23:30

  本文选题：居民房价预期 + 购房需求　； 参考：《统计研究》2016年05期

【摘要】：许多研究表明房价变动难以被经济基本面因素完全解释。市场参与者对房价的预期被认为是影响房价变动的重要因素;在土地供给缺乏弹性的情况下,居民的房价预期对房价的影响更加显著。本文利用2012—2013年中国7个重点城市开展的"中国城镇居民房价预期与购房行为专项调查"的季度数据对居民房价预期影响房价变动的内在经济机制进行了实证研究。研究发现,居民对房价的预期会显著影响其购房需求,从而影响未来房价的变化,本城市内居民对房价的预期水平每提高1个百分点,下一期房价增长率相应提高1.04%。本文利用微观数据和宏观数据的联合分析有效缓解了可能的内生性问题,研究结论对于理解房价波动和宏观调控工具的有效性具有重要的意义。
[Abstract]:Many studies have shown that house price movements are difficult to fully explain by economic fundamentals.Market participants' expectation of house price is considered to be an important factor influencing the change of house price. In the case of lack of elasticity of land supply, residents' expectation of house price has a more significant effect on house price.This paper makes an empirical study on the internal economic mechanism of housing price expectation and house price change by using the quarterly data of "the Special Survey of Housing Price expectation and purchase behavior of Urban residents in China" carried out in seven key cities of China in 2012-2013.It is found that the expectation of housing price will significantly affect the demand for housing purchase and the change of house price in the future. For every 1 percentage point increase in the expected level of housing price, the next housing price growth rate will be increased by 1.04% in the next period.This paper makes use of the combination analysis of micro data and macro data to alleviate the possible endogenous problem effectively. The conclusion is of great significance for understanding the fluctuation of house prices and the effectiveness of macro-control tools.
【作者单位】： 暨南大学经济与社会研究院;清华大学建设管理系;清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“地方公共品影响住房市场的微观机制:城市空间中的静态和动态研究”(71273154) 国家优秀青年基金项目“城市增长机制与管理研究”(71322307)的资助
【分类号】：F299.23
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本文编号：1738165