中国“十三五”时期劳动供给和需求预测及缺口分析

发布时间：2018-04-18 09:45

本文选题：劳动供求 + 结构性矛盾　；参考：《人口研究》2016年01期

【摘要】：劳动供给和需求是影响经济增长的重要因素。文章运用多种方法对"十三五"以及今后更长一段时期中国劳动供求变化进行预测和分析,并使用脱离教育人数法预测了每年新增劳动力的规模和结构,结合发达国家工业化过程中就业弹性变化规律预测了劳动需求变化。预测结果显示:"十三五"时期,新增劳动力供给规模稳中略降,年均增加1568万人,劳动需求增长也比较平稳,年均增加1542万人,劳动供求呈现基本平衡的格局。不过,就业的结构性矛盾却在不断加大,结构性失业问题比较突出;文章在对劳动供求缺口分析的基础上,具体测算了"4050"人员、农民工和大学毕业生在失业人员中的规模,并就如何促进大学生就业提出了一些建议。
[Abstract]:Labor supply and demand are important factors influencing economic growth.This paper uses various methods to predict and analyze the changes of labor supply and demand in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan and for a longer period in the future, and forecasts the scale and structure of the new labor force each year by using the method of the number of people out of education.Combined with the law of employment elasticity in the industrialization process of developed countries, the change of labor demand is predicted.The forecast results show that in the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the supply of new labor force decreased slightly, with an average annual increase of 15.68 million people, a steady increase in labor demand, an average annual increase of 15.42 million people, and a pattern of basic balance between labor supply and demand.However, the structural contradiction of employment is constantly increasing, and the problem of structural unemployment is more prominent. On the basis of an analysis of the gap between the supply and demand of labor, the article concretely calculates the scale of "4050" workers, migrant workers and university graduates among the unemployed.And put forward some suggestions on how to promote the employment of college students.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(批准号:14CJY014)的资助
【分类号】：F249.2

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