房地产价格影响因素及定量分析模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 22:01

本文选题：房地产价格 + 熵　；参考：《华北水利水电大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：近几年来,随着国民经济的迅速发展,我国房地产价格也在持续快速上涨,这不仅极大地影响了城市居民的生活质量,也是影响整个国民经济平稳健康发展的一个不稳定因素,房地产价格问题已经成为一个受到广泛关注的重要经济和社会问题。如何科学地分析未来房价的总体趋势,成为政府出台及时有效调控政策的关键。房地产业的发展与经济发展密切相关。目前,部分发达国家房地产市场的发展已日趋成熟,房地产价格的走势分析研究逐渐体系化、科学化,在政策理论的指导下保持持续健康发展的态势。与此相比,我国的房地产市场起步较晚,很多理论研究和政策制定还存在不足,而这些都需要依据未来房价的变化趋势做深入的研究。因此,如何科学有效地对我国未来房价的变化特点和总体走势进行分析和把握具有广阔的理论和现实意义。本文阐述了房地产价格走势分析的研究现状,对可定性分析的房价影响因素进行了定性分析,同时讨论并总结了目前房价走势分析方法存在的主要问题,提出了基于信息增益计算方法的房价主要影响因素提取方法,给出房价走势分析的一种辅助方法-多元线性回归定量分析模型,并通过回归分析来确定模型的精度及检验,然后建立往年指标数据的拟合曲线,从而定量分析未来几年的房价走势。通过定量的探讨为准确分析房价走势起到一定的参考和辅助作用。在此基础上,从误差分析、政策导向、应用方法等方面对房地产价格走势展开了更为深入的研究。最后对模型进行优化,提出了抑制房价的政策和建议。1.有关房地产价格影响因素的分析方法较多,但缺乏对主要因素提取方法的研究,因此本文从典型的房地产影响因素出发,分析计算各影响因素的熵和信息增益,从而提取影响房价的主要因素,为下一步房地产价格走势定量分析模型的建立奠定基础。2.由于目前房地产价格及其影响因素的研究还存在不全面和不成熟的问题,且多集中于影响因素的提取与分析,忽略了房价走势一般模型的建立。因此,本文首先分析了房地产价格的定义、特点和形成机制,明确了影响房地产价格的主要因素及相互关系,给出了基于回归分析的房价走势一般模型,并根据经济发展程度对房地产价格走势分析研究进行分类。3.针对目前缺乏通用的房地产价格走势定量分析模型的问题,首先分析了各主要因素与房价之间的关系,然后建立多元线性回归模型,通过对模型中残差的最小二乘估计实现对未知参数的求解。利用通用模型对发达和中等发达城市的房价走势进行分析,并对实证结果进行了讨论。4.针对模型建立过程中忽略了一些次要影响因素的问题,给出了改进模型的方法,提出了抑制房价的政策建议,为房地产市场的稳定有序发展提供参考。最后对本文的研究工作进行了总结,并对今后的研究方向和政策导向进行了展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, the price of real estate in China has also been rising rapidly. This not only greatly affects the quality of life of urban residents, but also an unstable factor affecting the smooth and healthy development of the whole national economy. The real estate price has become an important economy and society which is widely concerned. The development of real estate industry is closely related to the development of real estate industry and economic development. At present, the development of the real estate market in some developed countries is becoming mature, and the analysis of the trend of real estate prices is gradually systematized, scientific and in policy. Under the guidance of the theory, the development of the real estate market in China has started relatively late, and many theoretical research and policy making still exist, and these all need to be studied in depth according to the trend of the future price change. Therefore, how to scientifically and effectively improve the characteristics and general trend of the price changes in the future in China It has a broad theoretical and practical significance to analyze and grasp. This paper expounds the current situation of the analysis of the price trend of real estate, qualitative analysis of the factors that can affect the price of house prices qualitatively, and discusses and summarizes the main questions of the current price trend analysis method, and puts forward the room based on the method of information gain calculation. The main influence factor extraction method is given, and a supplementary method of the price trend analysis is given - multivariate linear regression quantitative analysis model, and the accuracy and test of the model are determined by regression analysis. Then the fitting curve of the previous year's index data is set up, so as to quantitatively analyze the trend of house prices in the next few years. On the basis of this, a more in-depth study of the trend of real estate prices is carried out from the aspects of error analysis, policy orientation and application methods. Finally, the model is optimized, and the policy and suggestion for restraining house prices are put forward, and there are more methods to analyze the factors affecting the price of real estate in.1.. But there is a lack of research on the extraction methods of main factors, so from the typical real estate factors, the entropy and information gain of each influence factor are analyzed and calculated, thus the main factors that affect the house price are extracted, and the basis for the establishment of the quantitative analysis model of the real estate price trend is laid on the basis of the current real estate price and the shadow of the real estate.2.. There are not comprehensive and immature problems in the study of sound factors, and the extraction and analysis of influence factors are mostly concentrated, and the general model of house price trend is ignored. Therefore, the definition, characteristics and formation mechanism of real estate price are analyzed, and the main factors and relations of real estate price are clarified, and the basis of this paper is given. The general model of housing price trend is analyzed by regression analysis, and the analysis of real estate price trend is classified according to the economic development degree. In view of the problem that the current real estate price trend quantitative analysis model is lacking, the relationship between the main factors and the house price is analyzed, and then the multiple linear regression model is set up, and the model is established by the.3. model. The least square estimation of the residual difference in the model is used to solve the unknown parameters. The general model is used to analyze the price trend of the developed and medium developed cities, and the empirical results are discussed, and the problem that.4. is ignored in the process of establishing the model is discussed, and the method of improving the model is given and the house price restraining is put forward. The policy suggestions are provided to provide reference for the stable and orderly development of the real estate market. Finally, the research work of this paper is summarized, and the future research direction and policy orientation are prospected.

【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】