居民首次购房行为特征及宏-微观影响因素——基于哈尔滨样本的研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 00:05

本文选题：首次购房 + 个体特征　；参考：《系统管理学报》2016年02期

【摘要】：利用微观调查及官方宏观数据,应用生存分析方法对住房全面市场化背景下潜在首次购房者的购房行为特征和影响因素进行纵贯研究。基于哈尔滨样本研究的结果表明,个体从正式参加工作至首次购房平均需要5.93年,工作5年后约49%可实现首次购房;年龄、文化程度、家庭生命周期阶段及父辈文化程度在微观层面对个体首次购房概率产生显著正向影响;宏观层面的房价涨速越快、首套房贷利率优惠比例越大以及土地供应速度越快会显著提高个体的首次购房概率,鼓励性和抑制性的交易营业税收政策则均会产生抑制效果。因此,政府应继续实施并深化差别化信贷政策、保障住房用地供应水平,进一步稳定公众的房价心理预期,倡导住房梯度消费观念。
[Abstract]:By means of microcosmic investigation and official macroscopic data, this paper makes a longitudinal study on the behavior characteristics and influencing factors of potential first-time buyers under the background of the overall marketization of housing by using the method of survival analysis. Based on the results of Harbin sample study, it is shown that it takes an average of 5.93 years for an individual to work for the first time, and about 49% of the individuals can buy a house for the first time after five years of work. The stage of family life cycle and the educational level of parents have a significant positive impact on the probability of individual first purchase at the micro level; the faster the housing price rises at the macro level, The higher the preferential ratio of the first home loan rate and the faster the land supply rate, the higher the probability of the individual's first house purchase, while the incentive and the restraining transaction tax policy will have the inhibitory effect. Therefore, the government should continue to implement and deepen the differential credit policy, ensure the level of housing land supply, further stabilize the public's expectation of housing prices, and advocate the concept of housing gradient consumption.
【作者单位】：哈尔滨工业大学管理学院;国网能源研究院管理咨询研究所;
【分类号】：F299.23

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