投入产出表中最终需求构成预测方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 12:37

本文选题：最终需求 + 预测方法　；参考：《燕山大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：最终需求是投入产出表的基本组成部分,包括最终消费、资本形成和净出口,是拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”。对最终需求进行预测是利用投入产出表进行经济预测分析的基础。近年来,基于投入产出表的经济预测研究在增多,但是,把各项最终需求作为一个整体进行预测,在预测学界和投入产出分析学界还没有系统研究。本文首先讨论了目前五种常用经济预测方法的特性,提出综合运用这些方法进行最终需求预测的思想;然后基于我国的投入产出表部门分类结构,提出由总到分的预测模式,讨论了三部门、六部门和十七部门的最终需求预测方法。首先,对最终消费进行预测分析:把最终消费分为农村居民消费、城镇居民消费和政府消费三项,先设计各项消费总额的预测方法,然后根据历年投入产出表,对我国分部门的三项消费结构变动趋势进行分析,再结合总量和部门结构对最终消费做出分结构预测。其次,对资本形成进行预测分析:把资本形成分为固定资本形成和存货增加两项,先设计固定资本形成总额和存货增加总额的预测方法,然后根据分部门的结构变动特点预测出资本形成的分部门结构。最后,对进出口进行预测分析:先分别设计进口总额和出口总额的预测方法,然后对分部门的进、出口结构进行分析,按结构比例把进、出口总额分配给各个部门。在其他学者对最终需求的研究中,大多只考虑总量,本文把最终需求作为一个整体,对最终需求的产品产业结构进行研究具有重要的理论和应用意义。
[Abstract]:Final demand is an essential part of the input-output table, including final consumption, capital formation and net exports, and is the "troika" that drives economic growth. Forecasting the final demand is the basis of the economic forecast analysis by using the input-output table. In recent years, the research of economic forecast based on input-output table is increasing, but there is no systematic research on forecasting and input-output analysis in the field of forecasting and input-output analysis. This paper first discusses the characteristics of five commonly used economic forecasting methods, and puts forward the idea of using these methods to forecast final demand comprehensively, and then, based on the sectoral classification structure of input-output table in our country, puts forward a forecast model from total to total. The final demand forecasting methods of three sectors, six sectors and seventeen sectors are discussed. First of all, the final consumption is forecasted and analyzed: the final consumption is divided into three categories: rural resident consumption, urban resident consumption and government consumption. First, the forecast method of total consumption is designed, and then according to the input-output table over the years, This paper analyzes the trend of three consumption structure changes in China's subsectors, and then forecasts the final consumption structure by combining the total amount and the sector structure. Secondly, the forecast analysis of capital formation: the capital formation is divided into fixed capital formation and inventory increase, and the forecasting method of total fixed capital formation and total inventory increase is designed first. Then the subsector structure of capital formation is predicted according to the structural change characteristics of the subsector. Finally, the forecast analysis of import and export is carried out: first, the forecasting methods of total import and export amount are designed respectively, then the structure of import and export of sub-departments is analyzed, and the import and export amount is allocated to each department according to the structure ratio. In other scholars' research on the final demand, most of them only consider the total amount. This paper regards the final demand as a whole, and it has important theoretical and practical significance to study the final demand's product industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F223;F124

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