中国货币中性与非中性问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 10:19

本文选题：货币中性 + 货币非中性　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着市场经济体制的不断发展完善,货币政策工具被政府广泛使用,以调节经济发展,而货币政策的有效性问题日益凸显。货币中性与非中性是货币政策有效性的基本前提,货币经济学关于货币中性与非中性问题一直是讨论的焦点话题之一,至今仍然没有明确的结论,基于此背景,有必要对中国的货币性质问题进行深入的研究。本文采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法,首先从迄今为止的研究成果入手,对货币中性与非中性问题的经典理论进行阐述,梳理和总结各派学者对货币中性与非中性问题的观点,并概括出影响货币中性与非中性的原因包括经济均衡状态、价格粘性、公众预期、经济金融发展环境等,提出本文判断货币中性与非中性的理论分析框架。然后对中国自1998年以来的货币政策实施效果进行回顾,并对1998年以来,货币供给量、产出水平和价格水平三个因素的增长率进行对比,分析得出:自1998年以来,货币供给量M2与产出水平的变化幅度基本一致,而价格水平的变化幅度较小,且滞后于M2的变化,货币呈非中性状态,价格粘性仍然存在,增加或减少货币供给量会给产出带来相应变化,而价格水平不会明显受其影响而波动,货币政策可以得到有效传导。第四章对中国短期内的货币性质进行实证分析,利用2008年以来货币供给量、产出水平、价格水平三个指标的季度数据进行实证研究,通过VAR模型分析货币供给量对产出水平和价格水平的影响程度,结果表明自2008年以来,货币是非中性的且货币政策有效,然而随着金融市场的不断发展,货币越来越多地流向金融市场,货币供给对于产出的作用程度正在逐渐减弱。最后,本文根据实证分析的结果提出相应政策建议,在短期内政府使用货币政策刺激经济的增长有效,另外需要有效引导公众预期,同时深化金融结构改革,防止资产泡沫风险。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development and perfection of market economy system, monetary policy tools are widely used by the government to regulate economic development, and the effectiveness of monetary policy becomes increasingly prominent. Monetary neutrality and non-neutrality are the basic premise of the effectiveness of monetary policy. Monetary economics has always been one of the focuses of discussion on monetary neutrality and non-neutrality, and there is still no clear conclusion, which is based on this background. It is necessary to study the monetary nature of China in depth. By combining normative analysis with empirical analysis, this paper begins with the research results so far, and expounds the classical theory of monetary neutrality and non-neutrality. This paper summarizes the views of scholars on the issues of monetary neutrality and non-neutrality, and summarizes the reasons that affect monetary neutrality and non-neutrality, including economic equilibrium, price stickiness, public expectations, economic and financial development environment, etc. This paper proposes a theoretical analysis framework for judging monetary neutrality and non-neutrality. Then it reviews the effect of monetary policy implementation in China since 1998, and compares the growth rate of money supply, output level and price level since 1998. The change range of money supply M2 and output level is basically the same, while the change of price level is small, and lags behind M2 change, currency is non-neutral, price stickiness still exists. Increasing or decreasing the money supply will bring the corresponding change to the output, but the price level will not fluctuate obviously, so the monetary policy can be effectively transmitted. The fourth chapter makes an empirical analysis of the monetary nature of China in the short term, using the quarterly data of money supply, output level and price level since 2008 to carry out empirical research. The influence of money supply on output level and price level is analyzed by VAR model. The results show that money is non-neutral and monetary policy is effective since 2008. However, with the development of financial market, More and more money flows to financial markets, and the role of money supply on output is weakening. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. In the short term, the government should use monetary policy to stimulate economic growth effectively. In addition, it is necessary to effectively guide public expectations and deepen the reform of the financial structure. Prevent asset bubble risk.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F224

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