基于CAPM的BOT项目提前终止补偿研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 19:03

本文选题：BOT + 提前终止　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：BOT模式因其能够有效缓解政府财政压力、提高项目运作效率,自提出以来就受到了世界各国的广泛关注。然而,由于BOT项目还具有投资大、特许运营期长、风险高等特点,加之目前尚缺乏完善的理论指导与实践经验,项目提前终止现象频繁发生,已引起了理论界与实务界的重视。BOT项目面临提前终止时,终止补偿的确定是摆在政府和项目公司面前至关重要的问题。确定科学合理的补偿额能够有效避免政企双方的争端,提升政府回购项目的效率,并保证双方获得尽可能多的经济利益或尽量避免损失。本文对BOT项目提前终止补偿的研究正是在此背景下展开的。首先,对国内外相关文献进行整理综述。这部分总结了项目提前终止的影响因素及责任分担,并对现有的BOT项目提前终止补偿研究的进展进行了总结。同时对资本资产定价模型进行了概述,介绍了模型的概念与使用条件,论证了CAPM模型对于解决BOT项目提前终止问题的适用性。其次,分析了现有以NPV方法确定提前终止补偿的不足,主要有贴现率确定不合理、剩余特许期内累计净现值分配缺乏科学依据等。针对其弊端,构建了基于CAPM的提前终止补偿决策模型。为了更为精准的确定剩余特许期内的累计净现值,本研究结合CAPM和WACC理念确立了合理的贴现率,并采用时间序列法为预测交通量提供了新的思路。同时,引入CAPM模型中风险补偿收益率的概念,提出对于运营状态良好的BOT项目,终止补偿应考虑初始投资和风险补偿收益两个部分。即政府在确定终止补偿时,首先保证投资者收回全部初始投资,而净收益部分政府给予项目公司的补偿应该为尚未收回的风险补偿收益部分。本文基于此构建BOT项目提前终止补偿模型。此外,论文也对模型参数的确定进行了具体分析讨论。最后,运用一个算例对模型进行了验证。在算例中,运用本研究构建的CAPM模型和交通量预测方法,结合算例数据,求解出BOT项目提前终止时,政府应给予项目公司的补偿,从而对模型的可操作性和适用性进行了论证。
[Abstract]:Because of its ability to relieve the government financial pressure and improve the efficiency of project operation, BOT model has been paid more and more attention all over the world since it was put forward. However, due to the characteristics of large investment, long franchise period, high risk and lack of perfect theoretical guidance and practical experience, the early termination of BOT project occurs frequently. It has aroused the attention of the theoretical and practical circles. When the bot project is terminated in advance, the determination of termination compensation is a crucial issue in front of the government and the project company. Scientific and reasonable compensation can effectively avoid disputes between government and enterprises, improve the efficiency of government repurchase projects, and ensure that both sides obtain as much economic benefits as possible or avoid losses as far as possible. In this paper, the BOT project early termination compensation research is carried out under this background. First of all, the relevant literature at home and abroad are summarized. This part summarizes the influence factors and responsibility sharing of the early termination of the project, and summarizes the progress of the research on the compensation for the early termination of the existing BOT project. At the same time, the paper summarizes the capital asset pricing model, introduces the concept and application conditions of the model, and demonstrates the applicability of the CAPM model in solving the problem of early termination of the BOT project. Secondly, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the existing NPV method in determining the compensation for early termination. The main reasons are the unreasonable determination of the discount rate and the lack of scientific basis for the distribution of cumulative net present value in the remaining concession period. In view of its disadvantages, a decision model of early termination compensation based on CAPM is constructed. In order to determine the cumulative net present value (NPV) of the remaining concession period more accurately, this study established a reasonable discount rate based on the concepts of CAPM and WACC, and used the time series method to provide a new way to predict traffic volume. At the same time, by introducing the concept of risk compensation return in CAPM model, it is proposed that the initial investment and risk compensation return should be taken into account in the termination of compensation for BOT projects in good operation state. That is, when the government determines the termination of compensation, it first guarantees that the investor will recover all the initial investment, while the net income part of the government's compensation to the project company should be part of the risk compensation income that has not yet been recovered. Based on this, this paper constructs the compensation model of BOT project termination ahead of schedule. In addition, the determination of model parameters is analyzed and discussed in detail. Finally, an example is used to verify the model. In the example, the CAPM model and traffic volume prediction method are used to solve the compensation of the project company when the BOT project terminates ahead of schedule, so the maneuverability and applicability of the model are proved.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283

【参考文献】