城市化、产业结构与人均碳排放——理论推演与实证检验

发布时间：2018-06-04 09:15

本文选题：城市化 + 产业结构　；参考：《现代财经(天津财经大学学报)》2016年05期

【摘要】：随着工业化和城市化的持续推进,我国的产业结构随之发生变化,对二氧化碳排放的影响也是关注的焦点。本文首先构建模型分析城市化、产业结构和碳排放的关系,并进一步使用固定效应面板数据模型和异质斜率面板模型实证分析了城市化、产业结构变化和碳排放的关系,结果表明城市化和人均碳排放之间存在倒U形关系,出现该关系的深层次机理在于产业结构的变化:在工业化后期,服务业占比上升,而服务业的能源消耗强度比工业小,因此人均碳排放会出现拐点。根据回归结果计算各省市到达人均碳排放拐点的时间,发现东部地区已经达到或几年内即将到达拐点,而中西部地区则平均需要十五年才能到达拐点。未来各省在制定减排政策时,需要充分考虑到其所处地区的城市化和工业化的阶段,采取差异化的产业引导政策。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of industrialization and urbanization, the industrial structure of China has changed, and the impact on carbon dioxide emissions is also the focus of attention. This paper first builds a model to analyze the relationship between urbanization, industrial structure and carbon emissions, and then uses fixed effect panel data model and heterogeneous slope panel model to analyze the relationship between urbanization, industrial structure change and carbon emissions. The results show that there is an inverted U shape relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions per capita. The deep mechanism of this relationship lies in the change of industrial structure: in the late industrialization period, the proportion of service industry increases, while the energy consumption intensity of service industry is smaller than that of industry. As a result, per capita carbon emissions will appear inflection point. According to the regression results, the time of reaching the inflection point of per capita carbon emission is calculated. It is found that the eastern region has reached or is about to reach the inflection point in a few years, while the central and western regions take an average of 15 years to reach the inflection point. When formulating emission reduction policies in the future provinces should take into account the urbanization and industrialization stages of their regions and adopt differentiated industrial guidance policies.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学经济学院;
【分类号】：X2;F299.2;F121.3

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