黑龙江省老工业基地人力资源需求预测模式研究

发布时间：2018-07-04 11:15

本文选题：黑龙江省老工业基地 + 人力资源　；参考：《东北农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：在第十二届全国人民代表大会第三次会议上(2015年3月5日召开),国务院总理李克强同志在政府报告中指出:“落实好全面振兴东北老工业基地的策略,深化国企改变,改善配置资源,推动产业结构改进,尤其是最大限度的使人力资源在经济发展方面的促进作用得以实现”。2015黑龙江省政府报告(2015年1月27日陆昊)中也提到大力调整产业结构,推进经济平稳发展的相关内容,其中如何高效利用黑龙江省老工业基人力资源,满足人力资源需求建设就是重要任务之一。本文以黑龙江省老工业基地为研究区域,以人力资源需求为研究主体,综合利用定性分析与定量分析的方法对影响黑龙江省老工业基地人力资源需要进行研究并作出预测。在界定黑龙江省老工业基地的基础上,对人力资源需求的概念进行阐述,构建灰色预测模型。分析黑龙江省老工业基地产业发展结构及特点,探究人力资源需求的现状及存在的问题,从人力资源需求数量、质量和结构等方面入手,利用层次分析法找到关键的影响因素,以灰色预测模型为预测方法,统计就业人数、学历分布和年龄结构三方面的数据为基础进行预测。由于人力资源需求建设关乎到黑龙江省老工业基地发展与创新,所以当前最重要的任务之一就是必须满足人力资源需求这个战略性的问题,做到在满足人力资源需求质量和数量的前提下合理调整人力资源需求结构,最大限度地调动黑龙江省老工业基地人力资源的积极性,并且做到吸引和收纳外来的人才,并挖掘出内部潜在的人才,为老工业基地人力资源的更新和发展提供源源不断的动力。黑龙江省老工业基地应当充分发挥其自身优势,并且给予满足区域人力资源需求预测的必要性以足够的重视,发展起到最大的作用。此外,本文以国内外人力资源相关理论与需求预测方式研究为基础,分析黑龙江省老工业基地人力资源需求的预测趋势,试图探索黑龙江省老工业基地人力资源的作用原理,利用灰色预测模型科学分析对振兴黑龙江省老工业基地人力资源的促进作用,且概括出黑龙江省老工业基地人力资源需求发展的不足的原因,并提出对未来人力资源需求预测实施建议,根据这些来建立黑龙江省老工业基地人才需求预测研究的框架。希望本篇文章能为黑龙江省老工业基地人力资源需求预测的相关研究提供参考和现实应用价值与意义。
[Abstract]:At the third session of the Twelfth National people's Congress (held on March 5, 2015), Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council pointed out in a government report: "implement the strategy of comprehensively revitalizing the old industrial bases in the Northeast and deepen the transformation of state-owned enterprises." To improve the allocation of resources and promote the improvement of industrial structure, in particular to maximize the role of human resources in promoting economic development, "the report of the Heilongjiang Provincial Government of 2015 (Lu Hao, 27 January 2015) also mentioned efforts to readjust the industrial structure, One of the important tasks is how to make efficient use of the old industrial human resources in Heilongjiang Province and how to meet the needs of human resources. This paper takes the old industrial base of Heilongjiang Province as the research area, takes the human resource demand as the main body, synthetically uses the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis method to carry on the research and the forecast to the influence Heilongjiang Province old industrial base human resources need. On the basis of defining the old industrial base of Heilongjiang Province, the concept of human resource demand is expounded, and the grey forecasting model is constructed. This paper analyzes the industrial development structure and characteristics of the old industrial base in Heilongjiang Province, probes into the present situation and existing problems of the human resource demand, starts with the quantity, quality and structure of the human resource demand, and finds out the key influencing factors by using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The grey prediction model is used as the prediction method, and the data of employment, educational background distribution and age structure are counted as the basis of prediction. Since the construction of human resource needs is related to the development and innovation of the old industrial base in Heilongjiang Province, one of the most important tasks at present is to meet the strategic problem of human resource needs. On the premise of satisfying the quality and quantity of human resource demand, we can rationally adjust the structure of human resource demand, mobilize the enthusiasm of human resources in Heilongjiang Province's old industrial base to the maximum extent, and attract and absorb talents from outside. And excavates the internal potential talented person, for the old industrial base human resources renewal and the development provides the unceasing power. The old industrial base of Heilongjiang Province should give full play to its own advantages, and give enough attention to the necessity of meeting the regional human resource demand forecast, the development of which plays the most important role. In addition, based on the research of human resource theory and demand forecasting method at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the forecasting trend of human resource demand in Heilongjiang Province's old industrial base, and tries to explore the working principle of human resource in Heilongjiang Province's old industrial base. Based on the scientific analysis of grey prediction model, the paper analyzes the promotion effect of human resources in Heilongjiang Province's old industrial base, and summarizes the reasons for the shortage of human resource demand development in Heilongjiang Province's old industrial base. And put forward the future human resource demand forecast implementation suggestion, according to these to establish Heilongjiang Province old industrial base talented person demand forecast research frame. It is hoped that this article can provide reference and practical application value and significance for the research of human resource demand prediction in Heilongjiang Province old industrial base.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F249.27

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